NFL Analysis
12/6/23
3 min read
NFL Teams Shouldn't Use Injuries to Excuse Missing Playoffs
We are at that point in the season where teams are either fighting for playoff positions or looking ahead to see what pick they might have in the upcoming draft. Some of these playoff battles won’t be decided until the last week of the season, and teams are looking for any advantage that might give them a chance to play for a Super Bowl.
While injuries aren’t something teams can control, looking at historical data of playoff teams can show us if being more fortunate on the health front gives teams a better chance of making the playoffs.
In actuality, the number of games missed by playoff teams is similar to the number of games missed by non-playoff teams in the last five seasons.
Playoff Teams vs. Non-Playoff Teams
| Playoff Teams | Non-Playoff Teams | |
| Average Games Missed | 120.2 | 124.7 |
| Average Injuries Suffered | 26.5 | 30.8 |
When calculating the amount of injuries suffered throughout the season, we considered only the injuries that forced players to miss at least one game. We can see that in the past five seasons playoff teams have been a tick healthier than non-playoff teams. However, it's not significant enough to say the teams who make the playoffs are necessarily more fortunate health-wise.
This was a surprise to us. We thought teams who made the playoffs would have a significant edge in health. When digging deeper we can find the difference in Total Points lost for playoff and non-playoff teams is a bit more noticeable.
In the past five seasons, teams that missed the playoffs averaged 104.2 points lost due to injury during the season whereas playoff teams averaged only 93.2. When teams lose valuable players throughout the season it’s more difficult to overcome those losses and make the playoffs.
Looking at the current teams in each conference who are in the hunt for playoff positioning, we can check on where teams stand at this point in the season with the amount of Total Points lost due to injury.
AFC Teams
| Team Name (Record) | Total Points Lost | Games Missed |
| Browns (7-5) | 90.7 | 56 |
| Texans (7-5) | 69.1 | 84 |
| Bills (6-6) | 58.7 | 30 |
| Colts (7-5) | 38.7 | 50 |
| Steelers (7-5) | 31.7 | 34 |
| Broncos (6-6) | 18.8 | 25 |
| Bengals (6-6) | 18.2 | 21 |
NFC Teams
| Team Name (Record) | Total Points Lost | Games Missed |
| Vikings (6-6) | 66.8 | 51 |
| Packers (6-6) | 64.5 | 53 |
| Seahawks (6-6) | 54.4 | 42 |
| Saints (5-7) | 34.0 | 59 |
| Buccaneers (5-7) | 19.0 | 26 |
| Rams (6-6) | 9.3 | 61 |
| Falcons (6-6) | 3.5 | 39 |
Not All Injuries Are Created Equal
It’s impressive to see teams like the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans still in playoff position while having some of the highest Total Points lost numbers in the NFL. High-end quarterbacks are usually responsible for having a big impact on Total Points, so we would expect a team like the Cincinnati Bengals to have their Total Points lost number rise substantially.Â
That leads us to the most significant difference between playoff and non-playoff teams in the last five seasons, — which is quarterback games missed.
Non-playoff teams have averaged five quarterback games missed per season, and playoff teams have averaged only one quarterback game missed. Avoiding injuries to quarterbacks is paramount when having success throughout the season and making the playoffs (sorry Florida State fans).Â
It doesn’t matter whether it’s Aaron Rodgers or Justin Fields — dealing with loss at that position is difficult to overcome. It will make it more of an uphill battle for a team like the Minnesota Vikings and now the Pittsburgh Steelers, among others, to clinch a playoff berth.
With the high number of quarterback injuries this year, it’s becoming increasingly apparent how important it is to have a high-end backup, like the Indianapolis Colts with Gardner Minshew.
Alex Vigderman and Brett Barnes co-authored this article.
