Analysis
8/18/23
6 min read
NFL Record Predictions for Every AFC South Team Entering 2023 Preseason
With preseason games already underway, it’s time to take an updated look at each team’s season-long prospects. In the coming days, we’ll provide record predictions for each NFL team, continuing with the AFC South.
Listen to NFL insider Ari Meirov discuss every AFC team with Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds.
Other Record Predictions
NFC: South | East | North | West
AFC South Record Predictions
Houston Texans
2022 Record: 3-13-1
2023 Win Total: 6.5
Division Odds: +800
Super Bowl Odds: +20000
The Houston Texans are entering a new era led by coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Texans are a rebuilding team in a loaded AFC. There are no easy wins for Houston.
How Houston Exceeds Expectations
Outside of a blowout loss to the Jaguars, the Texans played their best football late last season. Houston beat the Titans and Colts while taking both the Cowboys and Chiefs to the brink. This year, they’ve brought in Stroud and an improved offensive line. The 2022 Texans offense left a lot of room for improvement, and Houston should be better on that side of the ball this year.
Former third-overall picks Will Anderson and Derek Stingley Jr. are the foundations of Ryan’s defense. Stingley missed eight games last season, so you could view him and Anderson as significant upgrades entering this season. Overall, the Texans were a scrappy team down the stretch and have a better roster this year.
How Houston Fails to Meet Expectations
The Texans have a rookie quarterback and arguably the worst wide receiver group in professional football. On defense, their two most talented players have played eight total NFL games.
Houston enters the year with a below-average passing offense and a below-average pass rush. You could say those things about many teams that finish the year with a top-five draft pick. In Houston’s case, its first-round pick belongs to Arizona.
Record Prediction: 6-11
>> READ: Texans Fantasy Team Preview
Indianapolis Colts
2022 Record: 4-12-1
2023 Win Total: 6.5
Division Odds: +600
Super Bowl Odds: +15000
Former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson will kick off a new era of Indianapolis Colts football. Like their division rivals in Houston, the Colts are a rebuilding team in a challenging conference.
How Indianapolis Exceeds Expectations
Richardson is a developmental passer but a unique athlete who broke the combine last March. Thankfully, Steichen played a significant role in developing Jalen Hurts. Early in the 2021 season, Steichen began leaning on the Eagles’ run game more because Hurts struggled as a passer.
A similar macro approach would make sense in Indianapolis as the team brings Richardson along. If the Colts’ offensive line and defense play like they did in 2021, this team could be a tough out if Richardson limits turnovers.
How Indianapolis Fails to Meet Expectations
Richardson is a dynamic athlete, but he’s inexperienced and was an inconsistent passer at Florida. Some of those passing game struggles could be attributed to his supporting cast in college, but if Richardson struggles, so will the Colts.
In 2021, the Colts’ offensive line and defense were strengths, but both groups struggled mightily last season. Both could realistically bounce back, but if they don’t, it would not be surprising if Indianapolis finished the year with a top-five draft pick.
Record Prediction: 4-13
>> READ: Colts Fantasy Team Preview
Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Win Total: 9.5
Division Odds: -155
Super Bowl Odds: +3000
Trevor Lawrence’s Jacksonville Jaguars are an ascending power in the AFC. Expect them to be a perennial factor going forward.
How Jacksonville Exceeds Expectations
Any success the Jaguars have starts with Lawrence, who is already approaching elite quarterback status. If Calvin Ridley is still the player he was in Atlanta, Lawrence has a better supporting cast on offense this season.
The Jaguars’ schedule, especially within their division, is their most significant advantage against their primary AFC foes. In a best-case scenario, the Jaguars finish the year as the top seed in the AFC.
How Jacksonville Fails to Meet Expectations
Outside of injuries, the Jaguars have two realistic paths to an underwhelming 2023. The first is if their young, fast defense with several former first-round picks can’t prop up a beatable secondary. If the Jaguars' defense is as inconsistent as last year, they will lose winnable games.
The second is the Jaguars will begin the year with two new offensive tackles. Walker Little was a 2021 second-rounder, and Anton Harrison was a first-round pick in this year’s draft. Both Walker and Harrison have enough talent to be positives, but they enter the year as question marks.
Record Prediction: 12-5
>> READ: Jaguars Fantasy Team Preview
Tennessee Titans
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 7.5
Division Odds: +350
Super Bowl Odds: +8000
The Tennessee Titans have been successful under Mike Vrabel, but they uncharacteristically lost their last seven games in 2022. This offseason has been confusing, as Tennessee initially signaled that Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry might be available for trade.
It’s rebuilding teams that make their starting quarterback and best offensive player “available.” Months later, Tennessee signed veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins. Apparently, the Titans aren’t rebuilding after all.
How Tennessee Exceeds Expectations
The Titans have three strengths: a top-10 defensive front, Vrabel and Henry. Perhaps age and mileage catch up to Henry this season, but if he’s still himself, Tennessee’s offense can beat you on the ground and in the air.
If Tennessee can pair a league-average offense with Vrabel’s consistently overachieving defense, the Titans can be in the AFC playoff mix.
How Tennessee Fails to Meet Expectations
The Titans’ once strong, physical offensive line has deteriorated into a bottom-tier group over the past few seasons. Similarly, the Titans’ secondary has many holes and has underperformed in back-to-back years.
Hopkins and Henry have both been excellent players, but they are closer to the end of their careers than their primes. If the Titans fail, it's because they are at a talent disadvantage in the loaded AFC.
Record Prediction: 8-9
>> READ: Titans Fantasy Team Preview
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