NFL Analysis
1/17/24
4 min read
NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend: Expert Picks, Predictions For Every Game
There are only eight teams left standing in the NFL’s race to Super Bowl immortality. The first three games of this week’s slate come with significant home favorites.
Let’s jump right into some picks and predictions for the Divisional Round.
Saturday Slate
Ravens vs. Texans
Spread: Ravens -9
Total: 43.5
The Baltimore Ravens finished with the NFL’s best record behind the league’s best defense and its likely MVP, Lamar Jackson. Baltimore’s success is built around limiting mistakes while capitalizing on its opponents’ errors.
On top of that, Jackson is one of the few quarterbacks capable of carrying an offense on a consistent basis. And there’s a chance he could get his favorite target back this week: TE Mark Andrews. Ultimately, Baltimore can win in every phase, and the team is coming off two weeks of rest in this matchup.
During C.J. Stroud's historic rookie campaign, he has become one of the league’s most dangerous quarterbacks. That was on full display last week during the Houston Texans’ dominant 45-14 win against Cleveland.
Stroud is Houston’s centerpiece, but its defense and even its running game have been ascending for weeks. Freezing temperatures are expected in Baltimore, which adds another obstacle for a dome team such as Houston.
On opening day, the Ravens beat the Texans 25-9 in Baltimore in Stroud’s NFL debut. Houston is a much different team than it was then, but so is Baltimore.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 17
49ers vs. Packers
Spread: 49ers -9.5
Total: 50.5
The Green Bay Packers shocked the world last week by blowing the doors off the Cowboys in Dallas. Now, the Packers head to San Francisco to face the league’s most talented team.
Jordan Love and Aaron Jones played close to perfect football last week, but the San Francisco 49ers’ defense has few holes. Don’t expect another massive spike game out of Green Bay's offense in San Francisco.
The 48-32 score in the Packers-Cowboys game hides how well Green Bay’s defense played last week. That group has high-end players at every level, but it consistently underachieves.
If the Packers are going to give the 49ers a scare, Green Bay’s defense needs to play to its potential. If that unit doesn't, San Francisco is well-rested and can dominate games in every phase.
Ultimately, the Packers need to play a near-perfect game to knock off the 49ers.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Packers 20
Sunday Slate
Lions vs. Buccaneers
Spread: Lions -6
Total: 48.5
The Detroit Lions’ well-rounded offense continues to perform at a high level, especially at home. That unit will face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense that gave up the fourth-most passing yards this season.
Todd Bowles is known for bringing pressure, as he did against the Philadelphia Eagles last week. If Detroit can keep Jared Goff clean, it is well-positioned for success. If Tampa Bay can consistently disrupt Goff, he’s a different quarterback under those conditions.
The Lions have allowed more than 340 passing yards in each of their last four games. Two of those came against Nick Mullens, who combined for 807 passing yards during that stretch.
Baker Mayfield has thrown for more than 300 passing yards in three of his last five games. That includes the 337 passing yards he hung on the Eagles last week. If Mayfield continues to play at a high level and Tampa Bay can effectively pressure Goff, the Buccaneers can win this game.
Score Prediction: Lions 27, Buccaneers 23
Bills vs. Chiefs
Spread: Bills -3
Total: 45.5
The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs have squared off six times since 2020, with both teams winning three games during that span. Buffalo has won three of the last four, but Kansas City has won both playoff matchups.
These teams are very familiar with each other. Often, the quarterback with the ball last has won.
Buffalo’s current six-game winning streak started with a Week 14 victory over the Chiefs in Kansas City. Bills RB James Cook had a big game in that matchup, with 58 rushing yards and 83 through the air. Buffalo is among the most pass-centric teams in the league, while Kansas City allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards this season.
Patrick Mahomes’ offense has been uncharacteristically uneven, but the unit took care of business against Miami last week. Despite the offenses's regular-season struggles, Mahomes is the scariest opponent any defense can face in an elimination game.
Buffalo’s secondary and linebacker group are riddled with injuries. If anyone can exploit that type of situation, it’s Mahomes.
Score Prediction: Bills 23, Chiefs 20
