Analysis
7/31/23
7 min read
New England Patriots 2023 Season Preview: Surprise Playoff Contenders?
As teams head to training camp and the NFL season approaches, The 33rd Team asks its experts to preview every team’s outlook for the 2023 season. In this installment, Eric Mangini takes a deeper look at the New England Patriots.
>> READ: Patriots Fantasy Football Preview
Patriots Team Preview
What To Know: Offense
This season is going to come down to the Patriots’ ability to get the most out of Bill O’Brien's offense and whether quarterback Mac Jones can find his place quickly.
New England is lucky it will get to pair Jones with someone as familiar to him as O’Brien — his offensive coordinator at Alabama. It’s rare to get any type of fusion like that when you’re looking for an offensive coordinator.
When you look at Jones last year, some might say that the problem was Bill Belichick’s experiment with Joe Judge and Matt Patricia on the offensive coaching staff. But that might not be the case.
Jones came into a situation suited to his skill set with Josh McDaniels and a system that made sense to him in his rookie year. Then McDaniels left, and Jones likely looked around and said, “Well, I can win with any offensive coordinator.” But he tested that out, and it didn't really work too well. So the question becomes: Is Jones the guy who we saw during his rookie season, or is he more in line with the guy we saw last year? By bringing Bill O’Brien in, we’re really going to get a clear picture of who Jones is.
What To Know: Defense
In a lot of ways, New England’s defense is incredibly overlooked. The Patriots led the NFL in defensive scores. They were second in the NFL in takeaways with 30 versus Dallas’ 33. They were fourth in sacks, and they were second in yards per game allowed rushing. Plus, they have two dominant pass rushers in Matthew Judon and Josh Uche.
There’s a lot of talk about New England, but there’s little talk about how good they are defensively. The Patriots have the entire defensive staff back, and they’ve got the influence and impact of Bill Belichick on defense. This group has a chance to be dominant and to be the reason they go to the playoffs.
In the first year, we won the Super Bowl in New England, we only scored three offensive touchdowns in the playoffs. It was really a defense-driven season, and there’s no reason this year couldn’t be a defense-driven season, as well.
Biggest Off-Field Storyline
The biggest off-the-field storyline for the Patriots has to be the relationship between Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft. When you look at Robert Kraft as an owner, he repeatedly made amazing decisions. He was willing to trade a first-round draft pick for Bill Belichick when he was coming off his experience in Cleveland with one winning season in the five years there. But Kraft took a chance on him.
Kraft was also right when it came time to make a decision between Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo. The feeling was that the Patriots coaching staff wanted to move on, but Kraft didn’t, and they stayed with Tom and won the Super Bowl.
Reporters asked Kraft what his expectations are for the team and he said a seventh ring. So it’s pretty clear that the expectations haven’t changed since the Patriots’ glory days and that those expectations haven’t been met. There’s even been some disagreement in terms of the level of willingness to commit resources to improving the roster. So where that relationship goes based on New England’s level of success and how strong that relationship is in light of the past three years’ results is the Patriots’ biggest offseason story.
2023 Breakout Candidate
The breakout player of the year candidate for the Patriots is tight end Mike Gesicki. The main reason is that the New England offense has always been heavily reliant on tight ends. This system and the quarterback use the tight ends as a weapon in the short game or with any combination of routes.
Gesicki, who last season had 32 receptions after having 73 the year before, can be a serious asset. Belichick has played against him enough to know what a weapon he is. And New England has done a great job identifying free agents who can make an impact, especially if they’re guys the team has played against. So Gesicki could come in, be a big part of the offense and get back to being a 73-catch player.
Move Patriots Should Make
One of the areas of concern is the running back room. New England’s offense usually relies on multiple running backs. The exception was when they had Corey Dillon. Rhamondre Stevenson could be that guy, and he could carry the bulk of the load. He was incredibly successful last season, rushing for 1,040 yards and catching 69 passes. It would be wise to have more options.
When you look at the guys behind him — Pierre Strong, Ty Montgomery, Kevin Harris — they’re all good candidates to take some of that workload off, especially on third down. However, they got very few touches among them last year. The Patriots might be in a situation where they try to sign Dalvin Cook or maybe Kareem Hunt. If they can give you good, quality reps, they would be a valuable addition.
2023 Season Expectations
The New England Patriots are going to be a playoff contender, and they’re going to be in contention purely based on their defense.
They could have been in the playoffs last season had they not had that wild finish against the Raiders, which was very uncharacteristic of New England. Even though the Patriots aren’t the fashionable pick and despite the division’s added firepower and their tough schedule, New England is going to be in the mix.
The best possible outcome for the Patriots this season is that Jones and the offense get back in line and get back on brand. What I mean by that is New England football is always based on not beating yourself and not making mistakes that end up costing the team the game. Remember, the rule of thumb is that most NFL games are lost, not won.
For 20 years, New England has done a great job of not losing football games. But there have been multiple times during the past two or three years where the game was lost as opposed to won. So if the Patriots come out of this season and Jones looks like he can be the answer in the future — even if he’s not at an elite level — the defense is still strong enough that New England can get back on brand, which is a high level of smart, error-free football.
Other Previews
NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: GB | CHI | MIN | DET
AFC North: PIT | CLE | BAL | CIN
NFC West: SF | SEA | LAR | ARI
NFC South: TB | CAR | NO | ATL
AFC South: JAX | TEN | HOU | IND
Eric Mangini is a former NFL Head Coach and won three Super Bowls as the defensive backs coach of the New England Patriots. In 2006, he became the then-youngest head coach in the NFL with the New York Jets.
