NFL Analysis
1/15/24
6 min read
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions Have Recipe For Playoff Success
The end of the Detroit Lions' playoff drought could not have been any sweeter.
In a 24-23 game that went down to the wire, the Lions took down the Matthew Stafford-led Los Angeles Rams in front of the home crowd at Ford Field. The team exorcised its demons from the colossal failure that was the Stafford era. Jared Goff got revenge on the team that tossed him aside and won a Super Bowl without him. Most importantly, Dan Campbell and this young, energetic version of the Lions were finally rewarded for a brutal and improbable three-year rebuilding process.
It was a beautiful, poetic win for a franchise that has known nothing but exasperation for far too long.
Look No Further
Every part of this Lions team deserves credit for being part of history, but it's hard to focus anywhere other than the offense. The offense has been the driving force for the team's success all season long. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson isn't a hot head coaching candidate for no reason, after all.
Coming into the game, anyone would have told you the Lions offense was supposed to get it done as a run-first operation. It's what they built the team to do. Right tackle Penei Sewell made first-team All-Pro and center Frank Ragnow earned second-team honors, primarily because of what they offer as run blockers. The Lions have been bashing skulls in the ground game all year, with those two tanks leading the way for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Watching the game and checking the box score that's not exactly what happened. The Lions didn't run all over the Rams for four quarters the way we might have expected. They finished with just 80 yards rushing and fewer than 4 yards per attempt. Structurally, however, the run game made the offense go.
Roll, @Jahmyr_Gibbs1, roll!#LARvsDET | 📺 NBC pic.twitter.com/ivHGll8VMc
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) January 15, 2024
The Lions didn't put together a dominant rushing performance by any means, but they did enough to give the passing offense legs for certain stretches.
The Lions established the run early in the game. In the game, 14 of the Lions' 22 hand-offs came in the first half. According to TruMedia, Montgomery and Gibbs combined for 69 yards (4.9 per carry) and a 64 percent rushing success rate on those 14 carries. None of those 14 runs went for a loss, either. Every concept worked, and the Lions stayed ahead of the sticks series after series, regularly giving the passing offense favorable situations.
Attacking From Under Center
Detroit also continued to lean on under-center formations whenever it could. Per TruMedia, 13 of Goff's 30 dropbacks came from under-center formations. Goff completed all but one of his passes from under center, many of which were play-action strikes.
That particular schematic environment has been Goff's comfort zone since his days with the Rams. He's a better, more complete quarterback but has yet to stray from his old reliable.
So much of Goff's success in that environment owes to the types of throws he gets to make — crossers, digs, seam balls, anything that hits someone on the move between the numbers. That's where Goff shines.
Throwing Without Pressure Makes All the Difference
It's more than just the passing concepts, though. The protection afforded by being a team structurally committed to being under center and in heavier personnel and constantly a threat to run the ball is a huge boon. Defenses can not just tee off up front the way they might against teams who have no intention of hiding that they want to throw the ball. Look no further than this year's Washington Commanders if you need an example on the other end of the spectrum.
That advantage showed up big time in this game against a quietly fierce Rams pass-rush unit. In the first half, while the Lions were moving the ball well on the ground, Goff was pressured on just five of his 19 dropbacks. Goff was pressured on 10 of 30 dropbacks for the game, which is still a hair below the NFL average rate. Goff wasn't necessarily operating from Fort Knox, especially in the second half, but he often got a clean look.
For Goff specifically, that's huge. Goff has long been someone who struggles under pressure. He's gotten better since coming to Detroit when it comes to standing tall and keeping his eyes downfield, but he is still prone to tensing up and misfiring or making the oddest decision you have ever seen.
Goff is a hell of a point-and-shoot machine when kept clean, though. The numbers in this game speak to that. Goff was a perfect 20 of 20 when throwing without pressure, according to TruMedia.
He averaged 12.7 yards on those throws. When pressured, however, Goff was just 2 of 7 with three sacks, including one where he tried his very hardest to fumble the ball away with a two-handed backward pass straight into the turf.
Can the Lions Make a Run?
This game was a real testament to the Lions' formula — good and bad. When the Lions can run the ball and stay under center a reasonable amount, it feels like they hit all the right notes one after another. Every play call rolls together in perfect harmony. However, offense is a little tougher to come by without that structure.
That's not to say Goff or the team completely crumble without it, to be clear. Goff's winning throw to Amon-Ra St. Brown to pick up 11 yards and move the chains one last time was from the shotgun, for instance.
LIONS GET A BIG FIRST DOWN!
— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2024
📺: #LARvsDET on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/EGBlAXtH2O
We've also seen Goff grow this year when finding his checkdown options on true dropback concepts. That's lame development, I know, but it's a good one to generate consistent offense.
Still, the offense feels better when they're in the rhythm they want and can marry the run game with the passing attack.
The Lions will live and die based on how well they can stay in that rhythm for the remainder of the playoffs. They are as good as any offense in the league when things click. The run game can get after it, and Goff is automatic on his set handful of favorite throws.
If they can get that version of their offense more often than not, the Lions might have the right stuff to make some noise.
