Expert Analysis
1/17/24
10 min read
How Playoff Duds Impact Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa's Next Contracts
At various points during the 2023 regular season, the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins had reasonable shots at the top seeds in their conferences. They held Super Bowl visions entering the playoffs.
After disappointing losses on wild-card weekend, both teams exit the postseason facing major offseason questions. Those include the contracts of their starting quarterbacks who underperformed in the playoff defeats.
Prescott's Picks Sunk Cowboys
Dak Prescott had an excellent regular season in leading the Cowboys to 12 wins and a No. 2 seed. He ranked first in touchdown passes (36), third in passing yards (4,516) and passer rating (105.9). The Cowboys had won 16 straight home games and were seven-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers, who had an average defense in the regular season (17th ranked).
Yet, it all unraveled on Sunday as Jordan Love and Aaron Jones carved up the vaunted Dallas defense.
Prescott contributed greatly to his team’s demise with two costly first-half interceptions. They were both bad throws. The first set up a Packers TD that put them ahead 14-0. Prescott’s second pick was the killer.
He made a rookie mistake late in the first half by forcing a throw to CeeDee Lamb that resulted in a 64-yard pick-six for safety Darnell Savage.
DARNELL SAVAGE PICK-6. WOW.
— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2024
📺: #GBvsDAL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Ut3BRhC2CE pic.twitter.com/ERbaOsRW08
Game over at 27-0 Green Bay.
Prescott padded his stats with 316 passing yards against soft Packers coverage in the second half, but the damage was done early. “I sucked tonight,” Prescott said after the game. "That was it. I got it going a little bit late, none of that mattered at that point.”
Alarming Pattern Continues for Dallas
Dallas was the only home team and top-four seed to lose in this year’s wild-card round. It was the second straight poor postseason performance for Prescott. He had a great game in the wild-card win at Tampa Bay last season (305 yards, four TDs passing and one rushing) but followed it up with a lousy game at San Francisco in the Divisional Round with only 206 passing yards, one TD and two interceptions in the 19-12 defeat.
Prescott’s postseason record is 2-5 with three of the losses in playoff openers at home. He also has not advanced the Cowboys to an NFC title game. Despite the high level of competition in the playoffs, his postseason record is not befitting a 73-41 regular-season mark. It shows he has not consistently competed successfully in the clutch on the bigger stage.
When Prescott was asked about coach Mike McCarthy’s shaky status after the Packers game, his answer was blunt, “I don’t know how that can be but I understand the business. It’s about winning the Super Bowl. I get it but add me to the list in that case.”
Cap Number Leaves Cowboys Few Choices
It sounds introspective, but Prescott’s words ring hollow, given he knows he has the Cowboys over a barrel contract-wise. That’s because 2024 is the final year of Prescott’s four-year, $160 million contract. He carries a whopping $59.5 salary cap charge in 2024 with a $62 million dead money hit if he is traded or released.
The reality is the Cowboys will enter the 2024 season $11 million over the cap and must extend Prescott’s contract to get his cap figure down.
They also need to free up cap room to extend Lamb, who has a $17.99 million cap number under his fifth-year option. Lamb earned a new deal after a season with the most catches in the league (135), second-most receiving yards (1,749) and 12 TDs.
Defensive star Micah Parsons (a two-time First-Team All-Pro) will seek an extension on his rookie deal as he enters his fourth season. However, he didn’t make an impact against the Packers with only two tackles and no sacks or tackles-for-loss.
Perhaps a coaching change or better direction from McCarthy will help Prescott avoid the costly turnovers in the postseason pressure cooker. Quarterbacks usually face better defenses (last year’s 49ers were No. 1) and players such as Jaire Alexander (a Pro Bowl corner who made a great play on the first interception).
What Does Dak's NExt Contract look like?
As far as Prescott’s next contract, he may have been thinking about leaping to the top of the quarterback salary scale with a deal between $55-$60 million per year. But after another sub-par playoff performance, it’s safe to say the Cowboys will balk at paying him more than Lamar Jackson, who has the highest average salary per year at $52 million (on his five-year, $260 million deal signed last May).
Dallas also will be reluctant to exceed the highest guarantees which are $219 million on the extensions signed last year by Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.
For Prescott to max out his new deal, the Cowboys should include playoff incentives for advancing to the NFC title game and Super Bowl along with a big carrot for winning it all. Since he’s never accomplished these feats, they would not count against the cap until earned.
On Prescott’s end, it’s doubtful he will tell team owner/GM Jerry Jones he’s willing to take a “hometown discount” a la Tom Brady in his later Patriots and Bucs’ contracts. It’s not a thrilling prospect for Jones to give Prescott a lucrative extension after the Packers loss that “floored” him. However, it’s clear he must sign Prescott to a new contract before the 2024 league year opens in mid-March.
After all, Prescott is a three-time Pro Bowler and considered a top-10 quarterback. At 30 years old, he has time to change the narrative on his postseason track record.
Tagovailoa's Situation Is Less Clear
It’s a little more murky contract-wise for Tua Tagovailoa, who led the league in passing yards (4,624), ranked fifth in passer rating (101.1) and threw 29 TD passes but also 14 picks. He made his first Pro Bowl and played in every game for the first time in his career. He has a solid 32-19 career regular-season record.
But Tagovailoa did not play well last Saturday in his first playoff start, a 26-7 loss to the Chiefs. The sub-zero temps and facing Kansas City’s second-ranked defense played into Tagovailoa completing only 51 percent of his passes for 199 yards with one TD. He had a costly first quarter interception on an overthrow that led to a Chiefs field goal and a 10-0 deficit.
Interception Chiefs! Mike Edwards picks off Tua. #ChiefsKingdom #MIAvsKC on Peacock
— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2024
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/bTakd7vjlv pic.twitter.com/KDzbfriEQO
Patrick Mahomes outplayed Tagovailoa, but the Dolphins' defense was missing five starters, including two of its best pass rushers — Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips.
Coach Mike McDaniel didn’t help by calling too few runs the last two weeks. Miami had seven rushes for 27 yards in the second half at Kansas City despite only being down two scores until the mid-fourth quarter. That was after three runs for seven yards in the second half of a close game against Buffalo.
Season-ending Slump Concerning
Along with a lackluster showing in the playoff loss, Tagovailoa did not finish the regular season well. In the 56-19 Week 17 shellacking in Baltimore, he completed 58 percent of his passes and threw two interceptions. That loss knocked the Dolphins out of the AFC’s top seed.
Then, he threw for only 173 yards with two interceptions in the 21-14 home loss to Buffalo that cost the Dolphins the AFC East title.
That’s five interceptions and an average of 203 passing yards in his last three games including the playoff loss. And Miami only beat one team with a winning record this season.
The Dolphins are in worse cap shape than the Cowboys because they are $43 million over the cap entering 2024. They will restructure Tyreek Hill’s deal to reduce his $31.3 million cap hit and likely do the same with CB Jalen Ramsey and his $27.3 million cap number.
Tagovailoa is set to earn a guaranteed $23.171 million on the fifth-year option. He obviously would like to be extended at the $50-million-plus-per-year level of his 2020 draft classmates Burrow, Herbert and Jalen Hurts. Fellow 2020 first-rounder Jordan Love could hit that level too.
New Deal Could Help Dolphins' Cap Crunch
An extension with a big signing bonus would lower his cap number significantly. Miami needs cap room to re-sign or put the franchise tag on DT Christian Wilkins. But are the Dolphins ready to make Tagovailoa one of the NFL’s highest-paid players after his shaky finish to the season?
“We’ve stayed in touch with his agent, had good conversations throughout the year,” Dolphins GM Chris Grier said Monday. “Never talked about money, just good conversations about where he is. The goal is to have him here long-term, playing at a high level. We’ll communicate with him through the offseason.”
Tagovailoa doesn’t seem to be stressing over his contract situation.
“I have full trust in what I’m capable of doing for our organization,” he said after the playoff game. “We’re focusing on tonight and what happened. We’re going to simmer on this and see what we can do to get better from it for next year.”
I expect the Dolphins to offer an extension but try to hold it at $45 million per year. The team will want to include significant active roster bonuses to max out the contract each year, so he’s paid in full if he’s playing. I’d also include lucrative playoff incentives for each win.
But if the Dolphins aren’t desperate about lowering his cap hit, it certainly wouldn’t be a shock if the team slow plays it another year with an offer in Daniel Jones’ $40 million per year range, which Tagovailoa won’t accept.
>>READ: Has The Tua Era Already Peaked In Miami?
Waiting Is Also an option
McDaniel wants to see more development from his quarterback.
“I just want to see him make sure the curve continues to be exponential in his growth,” he said. “We’ve seen at every stretch of the way, him improving. That doesn’t mean it’s void of a result that isn’t desired.”
Such as the past three weeks.
If the Dolphins wait another year, they can see if Tagovailoa continues to get stronger and more injury-resistant with his offseason strength training, including his jiu-jitsu program, to avoid the concussions that kept him out of five games in 2022 along with any other injuries.
They’ll also see if he leads them back to the playoffs. Can Miami dethrone Buffalo as AFC East champs and advance beyond the wild-card round next season?
Then Grier would feel better about paying Tagovailoa top-tier quarterback money. And he would have the franchise tag in his back pocket if needed in 2025.
What is certain: the contract sagas of Prescott and Tagovailoa will be among the top NFL stories to follow this offseason.
