NFL Analysis
3/14/24
8 min read
Guarding the Bank: NFL Free Agency Sees Surge in Big Money Contracts for Interior Linemen
Money can fly around during the first days of free agency. With a jump in the salary cap, there can be some unexpected bumps in salaries. Nowhere was that more apparent than at guard. Almost half of the guard contracts in the league, which average $10 million or more, were signed this week.
This might not be a surprise given that, before free agency started, guards had one of the highest growth rates of the top-five contracts among offensive positions over the past decade, per Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap.
It makes sense that right tackles and guards would start to catch up with left tackles as teams continue to emphasize the offensive line value.
It’s a bit of a reaction, and rightly so, to the wave of interior defensive linemen who can wreck the game from anywhere. Just this week, Chris Jones, Christian Wilkins and Justin Madibuike got massive deals because of how disruptive they are. The interior defensive line is the defensive position with the biggest growth at the top of the market over the past decade.
Some of these deals are not entirely shocking. Before the negotiating period started, the Philadelphia Eagles extended Landon Dickerson to a four-year, $84 million contract, making him the league’s highest-paid guard at $21 million annually. That’s more than the four-year, $80 million extension signed by Quenton Nelson in 2022.
The sticker price certainly stands out, but the Eagles — a team that has long invested in the offensive line and ranked second in run block win rate in 2023 — locking up a plus starter after Jason Kelce's retirement isn’t shocking. Individually, Dickerson was first among interior linemen in run block win rate last season.
A Change In Scheme
For other teams, it marks a shift in philosophy and one starting to spread across the league. Two of the biggest contracts came from the Los Angeles Rams, who re-signed Kevin Dotson to a three-year, $48 million contract and brought in Jonah Jackson on a three-year, $51 million deal.
As the Rams shifted their offensive approach in the past few seasons, the 2023 offense moved away from the zone-blocking the McVay/Shanahan offenses are traditionally built around and moved more toward man-blocking. No team used more man-blocking than the Rams last season.
With that shift, the Rams increased their rate of runs up the middle. Of the Rams’ runs, 57 percent went up the middle, per FTN. They ranked first in adjusted line yards on those carries, with a bigger gap between the Rams and the No. 2 team than between the No. 2 and No. 7 teams.
The Rams are now slated to get even beefier up the middle. Dotson will return at right guard as Jackson takes over on the left side. That is expected to move 2023 second-round pick and last year’s starter at left guard, Steve Avila, to center. The 332-pound Avila played center during his college career in 2020 and 2021 before a move to left guard in 2022.
As centers have gotten a bit smaller to account for the movement needed in most run schemes, only three players had at least 500 snaps at center while listed over 320 pounds, but none were over 330. Tyler Larsen played 453 snaps at center in 2023 and 534 in 2022 while listed at 335 pounds, but he was not the Week 1 starting center in either season.
These Rams aren’t completely relegating themselves to a run-first, bully-ball offense, but it becomes another club in the offense’s bag and gives defenses another thing to worry about.
Last season, the Rams developed a pistol offense during the second half of the year. While Matthew Stafford worked the quick game on dropbacks, it allowed Kyren Williams to get more downhill while using under-center concepts in the run game. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see this expanded into 2024.
It's a Copycat League
While the Rams succeeded following this path, the Carolina Panthers will attempt to find some with their signings. Carolina made the most surprising splash by signing former Dolphins OG Robert Hunt to a five-year, $100 million contract with $44 million guaranteed and $63 million over the first three years. That is third among guards behind Dickerson and Chris Lindstrom.
The Panthers also added Damien Lewis for four years and $53 million with $26.2 million guaranteed.
Both of these guards are good run blockers. Hunt had a sub-1.0 percent blown block rate on the ground in 2023, according to Sports Info Solutions. Plus, he was often on the move in Miami's explosive outside run game. However, pass blocking is a bigger question.
In Miami’s passing game, the ball gets out quickly, partly to take advantage of the quarterback’s quick release and unprecedented speed from the wide receivers and protect the offensive linemen from sustaining blocks. Hunt won’t have that luxury with the Panthers, and it might be a bit of a projection for him to hold up that way.
Lewis might take a similar projection. In the run game, Lewis has not had a sub-2.0 blown block rate in the past four seasons, which is well below average for a guard.
In 2023, he improved his blocking immediately off the line and was responsible for fewer run stuffs, but the overall blown block rate was not at the top of the position.
This could partly be due to Carolina needing to overpay to attract free agents after finishing with the league’s worst offense by just about any imaginable metric.
The middle of the offensive line will be important for the Panthers in several ways. In the run game, new coach Dave Canales favored runs up the middle while serving as the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay last season. Only the Patriots ran at a higher rate between the guards.
Carolina also needs to protect Bryce Young, a shorter quarterback who can be more susceptible to pressure up the middle if defenders clog those passing lanes. Last season, Young was one of six quarterbacks pressured on more than 40 percent of his dropbacks. Young had the third-worst EPA per play, lowest success rate and lowest yards per attempt when under pressure.
The Panthers might be spending a lot while betting that these players will massively improve the line in those two important areas, but there is a clear plan that starts up front.
Another team that went hard at guard was the New York Giants, who signed Jon Runyan Jr. for a three-year, $30 million contract with $17 million guaranteed. Despite high picks and investment at nearly every position, the Giants have one of the league’s worst-performing offensive lines.
Runyan was 17th among interior linemen in pass block win rate, which the Giants desperately needed on a line that ranked 24th in pass block win rate as a whole last season. They also ranked 31st in run block win rate.
With the signing, Runyan gives the Giants a new right guard and some flexibility in the other spots. The Giants also signed Jermaine Eluemunor, who could slide in as the starting right tackle, which would move the struggling Evan Neal to guard.
Neal, selected with the seventh overall pick in 2022, had a wild 8.6 percent passing blown block rate in 2023 while he dealt with an ankle injury. The Giants could give Neal another shot at playing tackle or use his athleticism and 340-pound frame inside.
Neal played left guard during his first season at Alabama, and some believed guard was his best NFL position when he entered the draft.
To this point, Neal has downplayed a potential move to guard, but financially, there might not be a big difference if he switches positions and plays well.
Next Man Up
This bump in the market could be significant for the Kansas City Chiefs going forward. Trey Smith is the most notable guard set to become a free agent in 2025.
After averaging less than $1 million on his rookie contract and set to count for $3.4 million on the 2024 cap as a former sixth-round pick, Smith should get a massive raise in free agency while the Chiefs continue to figure out how to invest around Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City drafted Smith as part of a plan to fortify the offensive line in front of Mahomes, which included a $16 million per year contract for Joe Thuney at left guard. It’s possible Thueny could be in his last season with the Chiefs, as he’ll turn 32 in November. That could open up the opportunity to sign Smith to an extension. But that’s something the Chiefs need to prepare for.
The offensive line is a premium position. With how the game has evolved between strong interior defenders and a shift away from zone blocking from some of the league’s best offenses, guard is considered on par with tackles.
Especially with a trendsetting team like the Rams diving aggressively into this market, this might not be the last time we see a strong emphasis on the interior offensive line.
