Analysis
8/17/23
5 min read
Eagles, 49ers Prove NFL Front Offices Can Survive Major Mistakes
There’s a false premise out there that missing on a quarterback high in the draft – say, within the top five picks – sets a franchise back years and puts the job security of its head coach and general manager at risk.
It didn’t happen in Philadelphia, and it’s not happening in San Francisco.
Future Or Not?
Granted, there are instances where that occurred (see the New York Jets), but it isn’t automatic. It depends on how the team’s hierarchy does its job. The Philadelphia Eagles essentially missed on quarterback Carson Wentz and gave him a huge extension. But they were willing to admit their mistake and got the next one right with Jalen Hurts.
Now come the San Francisco 49ers. They’re the topic du jour because of what’s happening – or not – these days with quarterback Trey Lance. They drafted him third overall in 2021 and mortgaged the future to do it (three first-round choices and a third).
The belief then was that he was their quarterback of the future. The belief now is that he may soon be their quarterback of the past.
In short, he’s not what they thought. Not yet, anyway.
Yet the 49ers went through a group of quarterbacks (Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy and Lance) the past two seasons and reached the NFC Championship Game in each. So it hasn’t hurt them. But that’s because they have the right team-building philosophy … and by that, I mean they value the quarterback first, a dominant defensive line next and strive for depth at both.
The results, as they say, speak for themselves.
So look at the entire picture. The 49ers may have missed on Lance (I still think it’s too early to make that judgment), but they hit on the last pick of the 2022 draft. They didn’t lose a game last season with Purdy until he was hurt in the conference championship game. Assuming he’s healthy, he returns as their starter for this season.
Now, quick question: Do you honestly think anybody in that building cares that the first-round pick could be a bust and the seventh-rounder a stud? Please. All they care about is that the problem is solved for the next decade.
Shanahan and Lynch might have missed on Lance, but they’ve made a lot of good things happen in the meantime. Granted, it appears they were overly aggressive in what they surrendered to acquire Lance. But their batting average, if you will, is actually very good — especially if you’re comfortable with the short-term window they’re trying to push.
Shanahan's done a marvelous job of coaching the team, and we’ll see how the quarterback situation plays out. My guess is that he would admit the evaluation hasn’t evolved as planned … and that the 49ers probably overpaid. But it’s too early to say it’s an absolute failure. Moreover, it’s important to judge the entire job that Lynch and Shanahan are doing and recognize that the premise suggesting they should be in trouble if Lance flounders is absurd.
Mistakes Will Be Made
Smart teams make mistakes with quarterbacks taken in the first five picks. It happens, OK? But it doesn’t have to sabotage the entire operation. Again, I offer the Eagles (a team I helped run for 18 years) as Exhibit A. They traded a lot to move up and make Wentz the second pick of the 2016 draft, surrendering slightly less than what the 49ers did to draft Lance (three of the top 100 picks in 2016, a first in 2017 and a second in 2018).
Now, here they are, the defending NFC champions and one of this year’s two preseason favorites in the NFC, along with … you guessed it … San Francisco. If the 49ers aren’t one of the top two picks, they’re no worse than third.
Which is precisely why I emphasize the big picture. One mistake near the top of a draft doesn’t have to cripple a franchise. The 49ers proved that last year when they fell into Purdy after Lance and Garoppolo succumbed to season-ending injuries.
Bottom line: If Lance doesn’t pan out, it doesn’t affect how I view Shanahan and Lynch. When it comes to offense, I don’t know that there’s anyone today better than Shanahan. There may be some who are what I call “comfortably outstanding,” but he’s exceptional.
I don’t worry about him, and I don’t worry about San Francisco. No matter what’s next for Lance, it’s more likely that Shanahan, Lynch and the 49ers win a Super Bowl than go backward.
Joe Banner is a former front office executive for the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns. He was a part of an Eagles franchise that made a Super Bowl and played in four NFC Championship Games. Follow him on Twitter at @JoeBanner13.
