Debunking Myth of Guaranteed Contracts in Professional Sports
Analysis 4/4/23
As someone who's worked with the NFLPA for 30 years, I strongly believe players should fight for every guaranteed dollar they can get. But I also believe — no, I know — the biggest myth in professional sports is every contract in every sport but football is fully guaranteed.
It's simply not true.
The idea every single contract in baseball, basketball or hockey is fully guaranteed is absolute fiction. Why? Simple: It's just not possible. You can't guarantee every contract because you'd never have tryouts, and you'd never have a preseason.
Look, guaranteed contracts are based on two primary foundations — leverage and risk. The risk of injury in football is about seven times higher than it is in baseball and basketball. Nevertheless, it's a hot-button issue these days – particularly in the Lamar Jackson debate – because players believe their sport lacks something others don't, namely the right to have fully guaranteed contracts.
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Players fail to understand three important components: Leverage, economics and risk.
So let's return to Jackson's situation. Someone asked me if I'd advise him to hire an agent now, and I said "no.” That's because I would've advised him to hire an agent six months ago. When Jackson said he was offered a three-year contract, with $133 million guaranteed (just slightly less than what Jerry Jones paid for the Dallas Cowboys in 1989), that was reasonable.
But he didn't take it. So he's already left money on the table.
That's why contract talks are called negotiations. Both sides will be a little happy, and both sides will be a little unhappy. But somewhere between the leverage you have, the guaranteed money you want and the number of years the club is willing to give is where you're going to wind up.
That's the problem here. Jackson doesn't get it, and he's not alone. Players believe all deals should be fully guaranteed; that it's something they should seek. But what that does — especially with someone like Jackson – is convince the player he should be getting a fully guaranteed deal for the length he wants.
First of all, that's not possible. NFL teams start with 90-man rosters in training camp. So how do you fully guarantee every player? You don't, because you can't. Not everyone is going to make the team, and not everyone that makes the team is going to make it through an entire season.
Now, let's take a giant leap here and say the union somehow, some way, is able to negotiate a CBA where everyone gets a fully guaranteed deal. The owners and general managers aren't stupid. They'll say, "OK, fine. Then all of you get six-month or one-year contracts. Period."
As draconian as it sounds, most of the injuries players sustain decrease their value. Injury criticism was something Jackson responded to recently. So, if there were a system where everyone had fully guaranteed contracts – again, understanding that it's impossible – do you really think players would go for something where their money is spent on individuals who aren't playing because their ankles are sore?
I think you know the answer. No union has fought for — or won — the right for every contract to be fully guaranteed. It just doesn't exist.
Getting caught up in the concept of fully guaranteed money is nothing more than a distraction. Because that's not what matters. What matters is the amount of guaranteed money you can get.
Granted, there are examples out there – Deshaun Watson (five years, $230 million) and Kirk Cousins (three years, $84 million) are two – where contracts are fully guaranteed. But they're the exceptions. The rule for most players is two issues drive negotiations:
- How replaceable the player is.
- What the risk of injury is.
That's why 100 percent of contracts normally aren't fully guaranteed. That doesn't mean you can't ask for them. You can. But the reality is most players don't have the leverage to get them.
When Jackson wasn't getting offers immediately after the start of free agency, there was a suggestion of collusion that somehow teams were trying to send a message. It didn't take collusion for owners or teams to come to the simultaneous conclusion this was too risky of a deal. If they thought it was worth doing, they'd do it. They know how much Jackson is demanding, and they know how much it's going to cost to get him.
That's not collusion. That's economic sense.
Yet, we lose all perspective when we talk about athletes in general and football in particular. People think the NFL union is weak because they believe it hasn't negotiated fully guaranteed contracts for everybody. But guess what? They don't exist anywhere else. The foundation of their belief is completely flawed, and it's stunning to me.
I promised myself long ago I would work the rest of my life for the players in any capacity I can, for as long as I can, and for as long as they will have me. So I'm player-first all day long. That's why I serve on the Pension and Disability Board. The players always need to fight for each other.
And, historically, the union and players have led that fight. From the strike in 1987 to the Reggie White lawsuit that in 1993 kicked off unrestricted free agency, today's players have benefitted from the sacrifices of players in the past.
What we don't need is to distract ourselves with B.S. issues like universal guaranteed contracts. That's why I'm so adamant about this because it's a non-issue. Worse, it's a real distraction from the real issues we should be thinking about in collective bargaining.
Robert Smith is a former NFL running back for the Minnesota Vikings and a two-time Pro Bowler. His career with the Vikings earned him a spot on the 50 Greatest Vikings list. Follow him on Twitter at @Robert26Smith.