How many QBs will be taken in Round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft?
The quarterback position is the key to the game of football, and teams without a great one, know this all too well.
As each year passes, we see the inflated value of the position as many players go earlier in the draft than anticipated. Teams want to upgrade at the position, or start rebuilding again with a new, young face of their franchise.
First, let’s examine the historical trends and potential Round 1 talent at QB in the 2022 NFL Draft. Then, we’ll look at the odds for the number of QBs likely taken in Round 1, courtesy of our friends at Oddschecker.
How many QBs were taken in Round 1 of recent NFL Drafts?
- 2010: 2 – Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
- 2011: 4 – Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
- 2012: 4 – Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
- 2013: 1 – EJ Manuel
- 2014: 3 – Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater
- 2015: 2 – Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota
- 2016: 3 – Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch
- 2017: 3 – Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson
- 2018: 5 – Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson
- 2019: 3 – Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins
- 2020: 4 – Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love
- 2021: 4 – Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones
The average number of QBs taken in Round 1 since 2010 is 3.5, with 3 or 4 QBs being the most frequent. So how does the 2022 QB Class stack up against previous groups?
Which QBs Could Be Taken in Round 1?
Oddschecker offers odds on different markets for the NFL Draft, as seen below.
Malik Willis, Liberty – 1st QB Selected Odds : -140 (FanDuel)
Willis is a polarizing QB. He fits the current mould of the modern-day NFL QB, who is able to make plays outside of the pocket and pick up first downs with his legs. He also lacks general accuracy in the passing game, and his pocket awareness needs to be improved to have a successful NFL career. The Pittsburgh Steelers are well documented by many to be interested in Willis’ game, but the high upside may intrigue teams closer to the start of Round 1, such as the Detroit Lions or the Carolina Panthers.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh – 1st QB Selected Odds : +160 (DraftKings)
Pickett has had an outstanding Senior Season at Pitt, amassing 4300 passing yards with 42 TDs to only 7 INTs. He has the ability to extend plays and buy himself time in the pocket and has an NFL ready arm. Many believe that Matt Rhule and the Carolina Panthers will move on from Sam Darnold in 2022 to try and find success, and Pickett has been widely rumored to be their target at #6 in the draft.
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati – 1st QB Selected Odds : +1000 (DraftKings)
Ridder has a big arm, moves well and found a great connection with his WR1, Alec Pierce (who is also entering the draft). He is seemingly the most “pro-ready” QB in terms of his mechanics. However, ball placement to lead WRs up-field is an area to work on. Ridder has been mocked anywhere between #8 to the Falcons to around the middle of the second round by multiple outlets. We feel that if he is still on the board towards the end of the 1st Round, that a team who may be looking to upgrade their QB room will turn in the pick for Ridder.
Matt Corral, Ole Miss – 1st QB Selected Odds : +1600 (DraftKings)
Corral enters the draft having played in a predominantly one-read offense where they ran a lot of RPO (Run Pass Option) plays whereby if Corral’s first WR that he wants to throw to is covered, then he will hand the ball off to the RB or run the ball himself on some plays. Many draft analysts have stated—similarly to QBs entering the draft from Alabama—it is hard to get a handle on how the QB will suit an NFL, pro-style offense unless the scheme is changed and tailored to the new QB. He has good athleticism, and while he was mocked in the 1st Round by almost everyone at the start of the season, an injury combined with an average season has led to him being mocked consistently in the 2nd Round.
Sam Howell, UNC – 1st QB Selected Odds: +5000 (DraftKings)
Howell played in an offense at UNC where his offensive line invited pressure countless times during the season and to perform as well as he did, with 3000 passing yards, 24 TDs and 9 INTs. Howell has a really good deep ball, with enough finesse to give his WRs time to get underneath it and throws consistently at the intermediate level. Holds the ball too long occasionally as he waits to see the WR become open, instead of throwing them open into a window of space. Mocked around the end of the 1st round or in the 2nd round by many.
Carson Strong, Nevada: 1st QB Selected Odds: +15000 (PointsBet)
Strong had knee issues (Osteochondritis dissecans) where the bone separated from the surrounding area, limiting blood flow to the area. He had surgery after the 2021 College Football Season which should mean his knee injury is no longer an issue. His mobility is questionable given the past situation—something which may concern teams in the modern NFL. However, the placement and velocity on his throws combined with an alertness in the pocket, means he will be an accurate passer at the next level.
Potential Landing Spots for QBs taken in Round 1 (without trades):
Malik Willis #6 Carolina Panthers
Kenny Pickett #9 Seattle Seahawks
Desmond Ridder #19 New Orleans Saints
# of QBs taken in Round 1 —Expert View and Sportsbook Odds
“I predict four quarterbacks are taken in Round 1,” said Joe Banner, Co-Founder of The 33rd Team and former NFL executive for the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns. “But, it should be zero.”
Mike Tannenbaum, his fellow Co-Founder and former NFL executive for the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, agreed with Banner’s assessment. “I think four go,” Tannenbaum said, “because of the value of the 5th year option. We’ve seen Teddy Bridgewater and Lamar Jackson be the 32nd pick. I expect the 32nd pick this year to be the fourth QB taken in the first round.”
The 33rd Team also partnered with Oddschecker for the odds of these predictions.
|Sportsbook||Over||Under||Over Implied Probability||Under Implied Probability|
|FanDuel||3.5 (+124)||3.5 (-172)||44.6%||63.2%|
|DraftKings||2.5 (-250)||2.5 (+190)||71.4%||34.5%|
|Caesars||3.0 (-120)||3.0 (-110)||54.5%||52.4%|
“We know, or think we know, that Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis will be going somewhere in the first round,” said Brian Good of Oddschecker. “From there, it’s kind of a toss-up. Matt Corral and Desmond Ridder are your two most likely QBs to sneak into the first round, but could both of them?”
“For a while, this over/under was at 2.5 QBs in the first round at almost every book. However, it’s since moved, as have the odds. I think we 100% get a third QB drafted in Round 1. I am willing to bet we see a team move up into the back half of the first round and take either Corral or Ridder (my pick would be Corral), similar to what we saw Baltimore do with Lamar Jackson.”