Analysis
10/26/22
6 min read
Thursday Night Showdown Week 8: Ravens vs. Buccaneers
The Ravens haven't won back-to-back games since Weeks 11 and 12 of 2021. Their pass defense hasn't given up more than 300 yards since Week 3. Lamar Jackson has a 10-4 record in prime-time games. The injury news to Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman will be the most important factors to watch as the week develops.
The Buccaneers have been out of sync this entire season and don't have enough time to figure it out on this short week. In back-to-back weeks they have been double-digit favorites and lost the games outright. Brady has had 14 games as a Buccaneer where he didn't throw for two or more touchdowns; six of those games have been this year.
Vegas Line: Ravens -1
Over/Under: 44
Notable Injuries:
Ravens: IR: DT Michael Pierce, CB Kyle Fuller, S Marcus Williams. Out: OG Ben Cleveland, DL Calais Campbell. Questionable: RB Gus Edwards, WR Rashod Bateman, TE Mark Andrews, LT Ronnie Staley, LB Josh Bynes, CB Marcus Peters, CB Marlon Humphrey.
Buccaneers: IR: C Ryan Jensen. Out: WR Russell Gage, TE Cameron Brate, LG Luke Goedeke, CB Carlton Davis III, S Antoine Winfield Jr. Questionable: WR Julio Jones, RG Shaq Mason, DL Akiem Hicks.
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Ravens Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
- Jackson is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt, 9.0 air yards per attempt and a 6.6% pass touchdown rate.
- Jackson has thrown fewer than 200 yards in three of his last four matchups.
- Bateman and Andrews' poor health has contributed to Jackson's struggles.
- Andrews has been nursing a knee injury, and Bateman has been dealing with a foot injury.
- Jackson has run for more than 50 yards in six straight weeks but hasn't had a goal-line carry since Week 4.
- The Buccaneers allow 6.4 yards per attempt, more than 8.4 air yards per attempt and a 4.8% pass touchdown rate.
- They are playing zone at an 80.0% rate and blitz at a 32.7% rate.
- Jackson is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, 9.9 air yards per attempt and a 1.9% pass touchdown rate against the blitz.
- Three players have over a 20% target per route run for the Ravens against zone coverage: Bateman, Andrews and Devin Duvernay.
- Against zone coverage, Andrews averages 1.91 yards per route run, Duvernay averages 2.41 YPRR and Bateman averages 2.6 YPRR.
- The Buccaneers are giving up 4.4 yards per carry this season.
- Tampa Bay allowed its first 100-yard rusher this past weekend in Panthers RB D'Onta Foreman.
- Per the Edge, Foreman's rushing yards were on zone-blocking plays, and the Ravens are primarily a gap-rushing scheme.
- Ravens RB Gus Edwards returned from injury and will get plenty of carries moving forward after seeing 16 last weekend.
- RB Kenyan Drake still had some rushing attempts and saw a goal-line carry.
- RB Justice Hill ran the most routes but was not targeted.
Buccaneers Offense vs. Ravens Defense
- Brady is averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, 7.2 air yards per attempt and a 2.7% pass touchdown rate.
- Brady has had three straight games averaging fewer than seven yards per attempt but has attempted at least 40 passes each game.
- The Ravens have played plenty of man coverage while blitzing, but against Joe Burrow, they utilized 77% zone coverage and blitzed on just 2.7% of dropbacks.
- Against zone coverage, Brady averages 6.9 yards per attempt, 6.3 air yards per attempt and a 1.0% pass touchdown rate.
- Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin is targeted on 31.9% of his routes vs. zone coverage this season, which ranks first on the team.
- RBs Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White get targeted at a more than 25% rate against zone coverage.
- WR Mike Evans does not dominate the targets against zone coverage but holds most of the work against man coverage and the blitz.
- TE Cade Otton has the lead role at tight end, with Cameron Brate injured, and runs over 70% of the routes.
- The Ravens haven't allowed more than 100 yards receiving to a player since Week 3. They did give up more than 70 yards receiving to Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku in Week 7.Â
- The Ravens' run defense has given up 4.5 yards per carry this season to running backs.
- Both Fournette and White are averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry this season.
- White has seen the field in recent weeks, but Fournette continues to dominate the touches out of the backfield.
Overall Thoughts
Jackson has struggled to throw the ball without a healthy Andrews and Bateman. Both players will need to be healthy for Jackson to perform as a passer, but for fantasy, he can still manage to get there on the ground. Jackson's only issue is he is not running the ball near the goal line, and Edwards looked like the power back of old last weekend. The Ravens have plenty of cheap options to play. You just have to hope they get utilized near the red zone. Isaiah Likely, Patrick Ricard, Josh Oliver and James Proche are the four players to consider.
Brady has the volume to compensate for the low efficiency, but his wide receivers must make plays when the ball gets in their hands. Evans had a drop that would've been a 60-yard touchdown, and after that play, the Buccaneers looked out of sync as an offense. Godwin will see the most targets in this game, but the low aDOT will be a concern. Julio Jones is a game-time decision, and if he is active, I expect the usage to be there to pay off for this showdown contest. Fournette will see plenty of work, and I expect most of his points to come from receptions. White will see some work in this game, but not enough to pay off his salary without a touchdown.
Multiplier Pool
- Lamar Jackson
- Tom Brady
- Chris Godwin
- Leonard Fournette
- Devin Duvernay
FLEX Pool
- Mike Evans
- Mark Andrews
- Rashod Bateman
- Julio Jones
- Cade Otton
- Rachaad White
- Ravens DST
- Justin Tucker
- Ryan Succop
- Buccaneers DST
- DeSean Jackson
- Isaiah Likely
- Patrick Ricard
- Josh Oliver
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