Analysis

NFL Week 8 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Ravens vs. Buccaneers

Thursday Night Football: Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

Opening Spread: Buccaneers +1.

Opening Game Total: 44.

Opening Team Totals: Buccaneers (21.5), Ravens (22.5).

Weather: Outdoors, some chance of rain.

The Line Report

  •         This line opened as Buccaneers +1.
  •         This line is now between Buccaneers +1 and Buccaneers +1.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
  •         DraftKings Pick’Em has the Buccaneers +1.5.
  •         This total opened at 44 points.
  •         This total has moved slightly up to 44.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Buccaneers: IR: C Ryan Jensen. Out: WR Russell Gage, TE Cameron Brate, LG Luke Goedeke, CB Carlton Davis III, S Antoine Winfield Jr. Questionable: WR Julio Jones, RG Shaq Mason, DL Akiem Hicks.

Ravens: IR: DT Michael Pierce, CB Kyle Fuller, S Marcus Williams. Out: OG Ben Cleveland, DL Calais Campbell. Questionable: RB Gus Edwards, WR Rashod Bateman, TE Mark Andrews, LT Ronnie Staley, LB Josh Bynes, CB Marcus Peters, CB Marlon Humphrey.

The Buccaneers Offense vs. Ravens Defense

Tampa Bay is an interesting offensive line as they have one of the best offensive tackle duos in the league, with a high-end right guard in Shaq Mason. On the more negative side, the Buccaneers have been marching out a backup center all year and left guard Luke Goedeke has been ruled out in this contest. Baltimore has an average-at-best front, giving Tampa Bay’s offensive line a macro edge in this contest. Ravens veteran defensive lineman Calais Campbell is still playing at a high level at the age of 36, but he’ll miss this contest. That’s good news for Tampa Bay’s vulnerable interior.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  •         The Buccaneers are 2-5 against the spread this season.
  •         The Buccaneers are 1-6 on overs this season.
  •         Tom Brady is 186-128-11 against the spread in his career.
  •         Tom Brady is 168-155-2 on overs in his career.
  •         Todd Bowles is 34-36-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  •         Todd Bowles is 36-38 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Buccaneers Offense

  •       The Buccaneers are scoring 17.7 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
  •       Tampa Bay is seventh in the league in yards passing per game and last in yards rushing.
  •       Per the Edge, Tom Brady is eighth in the league in yards passing per game, he’s 29th in yards per attempt, and he’s 28th in air yards per attempt.
  •        Fournette breached 100 yards rushing on opening night against Dallas but has only exceeded 50 yards rushing three times since.
  •        Leonard Fournette has had at least six targets in four of Tampa’s last five games. That includes an 11-target spike against the Falcons in Week 5.
  •        Rookie running back Rachaad White has at least four targets in three of Tampa’s last four games.
  •        Mike Evans has had between eight and 15 targets in three of Tampa’s last four games.
  •        Evans has had his two best performances in games that the Buccaneers decisively lost to the Chiefs and Panthers. Evans breached ten targets in both of those contests.
  •        Since returning to action against the Chiefs in early October, Godwin has had double-digit targets in three of Tampa’s last four games.
  •        It’s a very small sample, but the two games Evans had double-digit targets, so did Godwin.
  •        No. 106 overall pick Cade Otton has seen between three and seven targets over the last four games.
  •        Per TruMedia, Mike Evans has played 247 snaps on the perimeter and 77 in the slot.
  •        Chris Godwin has played 71 snaps on the perimeter and 153 in the slot.

Ravens Defense

  •         The Ravens have allowed 23 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
  •         Baltimore is 26th in net yards passing allowed per game and tenth in yards rushing allowed per game.
  •         Baltimore is sixth in the league in sacks with 20 and third in interceptions with eight.
  •         Per The Edge, the Ravens have allowed the 23rd most yards rushing per game and the seventh most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  •         Baltimore has given up the fourth most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  •         Baltimore has given up the eighth most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers and the sixth most to those in the slot.
  •         The Ravens have allowed the 20th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season. 

The Ravens Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense

The Ravens offensive line vs. the Buccaneers front is a matchup between two fringe top-ten units. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw. One of the most interesting aspects of this game is Lamar Jackson’s struggles against some blitz-heavy opponents over the past two seasons. The Ravens’ loss to Brian Flores’ Dolphins on Thursday Night Football last year and Baltimore’s recent defeat to Wink Martindale’s Giants defense come to mind. Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is known for bringing pressure.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  •         The Ravens are 3-4 against the spread this season.
  •         The Ravens are 2-5 on overs this season.
  •         Lamar Jackson is 34-30-1 against the spread in his career.
  •         Lamar Jackson is 30-35 on overs in his career.
  •         John Harbaugh is 116-107-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  •         John Harbaugh is 112-119-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Ravens Offense

  •       The Ravens are scoring 25.9 points per game, good for sixth in the league.
  •       Baltimore is 26th in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing.
  •       Per the Edge, Lamar Jackson is fifth in the league in yards rushing with 510. Jackson is the rushing leader at the quarterback position by over 100 yards.
  •       Gus Edwards returned to action last week and ran for 66 yards rushing and two scores on 16 carries. Edwards didn’t catch his lone target.
  •       After a big Week 6, Kenyan Drake only had five yards rushing against Cleveland last week. Drake still had 11 carries and one target. Justice Hill also factored in against Cleveland, rushing for 26 yards on five carries. Hill also fumbled.
  •         Right now, we can reasonably expect Edwards to headline the Ravens backfield with Kenyan Drake seeing notable opportunities behind Edwards. Justice Hill is more likely to eat into Drake’s current role than Edwards’.
  •         Rashod Bateman has missed two games this season, but he returned to action against Cleveland last week. Bateman is second on the Ravens in target share (21.1%) and air yards share (28.4%).
  •         Devin Duvernay has emerged as the third option in the Ravens passing attack, with a 14.5% target share and an 18.7% air yards share. During the two games that Bateman missed this season, Duvernay’s target share swelled to 20.7% and his air yards share rose to 28.9%.
  •         Among all pass catchers Ravens tight end Mark Andrews is tied for fourth in target share (31.7%) and 12th in air yards share (37.4%). Andrews has 39 receptions for 455 yards receiving and five touchdowns on the season.
  •         Andrews didn’t catch either of his targets against the Browns last week and remains on the injury report as of Wednesday afternoon.
  •         Per TruMedia, Rashod Bateman has played 148 snaps on the perimeter and 17 in the slot.
  •         Devin Duvernay has played 172 snaps on the perimeter and 80 in the slot.
  •         Mark Andrews has played 83 snaps as an inline tight end, 80 on the perimeter, and 198 in the slot.

Buccaneers Defense

  •         The Buccaneers have allowed 17.7 points per game, which is fifth in the league.
  •         Tampa Bay is sixth in net yards passing allowed per game and 16th in yards rushing allowed per game.
  •         Tampa Bay is third in the league in sacks with 22 and 11th in interceptions with six.
  •         Per The Edge, back in Week 5, the Buccaneers gave up 61 yards rushing on seven carries to Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota.
  •         Last season, the Buccaneers held Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts below 50 yards rushing and below five yards per carry in both their regular season and playoff matchups.
  •         Josh Allen ran for 109 yards rushing and a score off 12 carries against the Buccaneers last season.
  •         In general, high-level running quarterbacks have had varying degrees of success against the Buccaneers defense.
  •         The Buccaneers have allowed the 13th most yards rushing per game and the fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  •         Tampa Bay has given up the 22nd most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  •         The Buccaneers have allowed the 14th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  •         The Buccaneers have allowed the 10th most yards receiving per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.

This is What You’re Betting On in Buccaneers vs. Ravens

The injury report can be the great equalizer in sports betting, as it’s really muddied my stance in this game. 

The departure of Bruce Arians and the many ways in which this season is a unique one for Tom Brady has made this a different team this season. If you’re betting on the Bucs, you’re banking on a much more consistent effort on offense than they’ve shown in weeks. Tampa Bay has an offensive line with some high-end players, with vulnerabilities at center and left guard. One positive for Tampa Bay is that the Ravens have more of an average at best front four. Baltimore’s two starting quarterbacks are both late arrivals on the injury report as well. This is shaping up to be a solid matchup for Tom Brady’s surprisingly inconsistent offense.

If you’re betting on the Buccaneers that stance is primarily built on Todd Bowles overseeing an aggressive defensive game plan that limits Lamar Jackson. We’ve seen coaches like Brian Flores and Wink Martindale have success against Jackson with blitz-heavy approaches. Jackson is capable of beating the blitz, but this could be a tough matchup for him in that sense. Your primary concern with a Bucs bet is that Lamar Jackson carries his offense while Tampa’s continues to struggle

Every team is reliant on their quarterback, but that is especially true for Lamar Jackson’s Ravens. Both Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman remain on the injury report as of Wednesday, and Jackson will likely face a blitz-heavy Toddy Bowles attack. Lamar Jackson is capable of carrying this team against any opponent, but this is a tough matchup for him, especially if Andrews misses this contest. Tom Brady’s Buccaneers offense scored three points last week against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have already fired their head coach this season and traded away two offensive starters. The Ravens defense doesn’t need to hold the Buccaneers to three points, but they need to at least meet expectations against Tampa’s struggling offense. My biggest concern with a Ravens bet is that this game looks a lot like last year’s Thursday night matchup in Miami, that Baltimore lost 22-10.

Per TruMedia, over the last 153 games played on Thursday Night Football, home teams are 81-68-4 ATS over that span. On average home teams have covered by just shy of one point, while outright winning by a margin just shy of six points during this sample. Give the home team a slight baseline edge in your decision-making process on the short week.

Awards Market Ramifications: Lamar Jackson is a fringe MVP candidate.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I don’t have a strong stance in this game due to the injury situations for both teams, so I’m going to get some exposure to both teams in winner pools. I’ll rank whoever I take in this contest as far down as I can in confidence pools.

Spread Pool: My early week lean would have been towards the Tampa Bay side in this contest, but there are so many relevant injuries on both teams that I’m going to stay away from this one against the spread. In a spread pool where you have to pick every game, I am still going to go with Tampa barring anything unforeseen.

 

Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 24-11

Props 2022: 23-13

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