Chase Young Could make Commanders Pay After Fifth-Year Option Denial
Analysis 5/4/23
After Daniel Jones was drafted sixth overall by the New York Giants in 2019, his first three seasons were lackluster. He had a 12-25 record, only 21 TD passes and 17 interceptions during his second and third seasons.
His 2021 passer rating of 84.8 ranked 25th among starting quarterbacks, and he missed the season's last six games because of a neck injury. The word "bust" was prevalent in New York as the Giants declined Jones’ fifth-year option last May.
Enter Brian Daboll as the Giants' new coach. Under Daboll’s guidance, plus Jones’ growth as a player, he transformed into an efficient passer (3,205 passing yards, 15 TDs, only five interceptions) and a dangerous runner (708 rushing yards and seven TDs).
Jones led the Giants to their first playoff berth since 2016 with a 9-7-1 record and to an upset victory in the wild-card round at Minnesota. He threw for 301 yards, two TDs and rushed for 78 yards in that win.
The Giants lost to a superior Philadelphia Eagles team the next week, but Jones proved he was the Giants’ future at quarterback. General manager Joe Schoen said he would’ve exercised Jones’ fifth-year option for $22.38 million if he knew Jones would step up as he did last season. Instead, Jones cashed in big-time with a new four-year, $160 million contract with $92 million in guarantees.
Can Young Cash In?
This year’s Daniel Jones could be defensive end Chase Young, who just had his fifth-year option declined by the Washington Commanders. Young was the second overall pick in the 2020 draft and the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. He made the Pro Bowl that year with 7.5 sacks and four forced fumbles.
>> READ: Fifth-Year Option Tracker
Then, things unraveled for Young. He had only 1.5 sacks in the first nine games of 2021 before tearing his ACL and patellar tendon in Week 10. He did not return to the Commanders’ lineup until the final three games of last season, missing 22 straight games in total. Upon his return, Young produced five tackles and no sacks as Washington fell out of the playoff race with an 8-8-1 finish.
Young has earned $29 million through his first three seasons and has a salary cap hit of $11 million in 2023. The fifth-year option would have cost the Commanders $17.45 million guaranteed. With his contract expiring next March, Young can cash in with a new contract in Washington, go elsewhere or be franchise tagged at around $20 million in 2024.
Coach Ron Rivera said he hopes Young has a great year, which would create “a really good problem to have.”
Too Many Pass Rushers
The Commanders are a unique team with four first-round picks on their outstanding defensive line, but it’s a pricey group. Pro Bowl defensive tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen are on deals paying them $22.5 million per year and $18 million per year, respectively.
Payne played last season under his fifth-year option for $8.5 million and produced his best season with 11.5 sacks, 20 QB hits and 18 tackles for loss. He was rewarded with his four-year, $90 million deal just before the opening of this year’s free agency.
Commanders DE Montez Sweat also had his fifth-year option exercised last year, and he’s set to play for $11.5 million in 2023. The team likely thinks it will try to extend or franchise either Sweat or Young after this season, depending on who plays better and has more career upside.
Talent-wise, that’s probably Young if he is fully recovered from his knee injury and produces double-digit sacks. Sweat is no slouch as an excellent athlete who had eight sacks and 14 tackles for loss last season.
The Commanders have $52.5 million in 2023 cap space tied up in Payne, Allen, Young and Sweat. They have $3.1 million of cap room and need to free up money to sign their draft class and pay their entire roster, including any injured reserve players, when all players count after the final cut in September.
It’s unlikely the team would trade Young. They would not get enough in return for a player coming off two injury-filled seasons. They might consider moving Sweat if they could get at least a 2024 second-round pick in return and have confidence in Young’s return to top form.
The Commanders drafted two defensive ends late in the 2023 NFL Draft — K.J. Henry in the fifth round and Andre Jones in the seventh round. Perhaps one of them or a returning vet in Efe Obada or James Smith-Williams could become a starter this season if Sweat is traded. They could also step into the starting lineup next year instead of Sweat or Young since keeping both in 2024 is unlikely.
Can Young Rebound?
General manager Martin Mayhew and Rivera want to see if Young can play at the Pro Bowl level he did in his rookie season. Before his injury, it was anticipated Young would emerge as an elite defensive end like Nick Bosa, who was picked in the same second-overall spot one year earlier. Bosa was also the Defensive Rookie of the Year, like Young, and led the NFL with 18.5 sacks last season as a first-team All-Pro.
Young has the size — 6-foot-5, 264 pounds — and the athleticism, when fully healthy, to be a dominant player. In his final season at Ohio State, he set a school record with 16.5 sacks, forced seven fumbles and was a Heisman Trophy finalist, which is rare for a defensive player.
He’s only 24, so he has a long career ahead if he can stay healthy. It doesn’t hurt to be playing with Allen and Payne and, perhaps at least this coming season, with Sweat. Young should face a lot of single blocking, especially early in 2023, until he forces teams to double-team or chip him.
Young is facing a prove-it year without the fifth-year option, as was the case with Jones last year. Young’s future is one of the top Commanders’ storylines to follow this year and beyond. Will he have a massive year as Jones did and make Washington pay a lot more under a new deal or a franchise tag than it would have under his fifth-year option?
If Young stays healthy, plays great and is a top-five pass rusher with more than 15 sacks this coming season, it could cost the Commanders $30 million or more per year on Young’s next deal. If Commanders use the tag, it will cost an estimated $20 million. That would allow the team to see two consecutive years of Young staying healthy with high production before committing to a massive new deal.
Without a high-priced quarterback on the roster (as of now), the Commanders can handle the franchise tag on their cap, but it could set up a difficult situation with Young if he’s coming off a great season.
Or will Young never reach his full potential on the field and on the defensive end pay scale due to a significant injury too difficult to overcome?
That was precisely the case with quarterback Robert Griffin III in Washington 10 years ago. His great rookie season was followed by a major injury, leading to his release. Coincidentally, Griffin — like Young – was the second overall pick (2012) in the draft.
Stay tuned on Young’s situation as the Commanders’ organization and fan base will be doing with great interest this year and pre-free agency in 2024.
Jeff Diamond is a former Minnesota Vikings general manager and Titans team president. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. Follow him on Twitter at @jeffdiamondnfl.