Analysis
6/14/23
9 min read
2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football: Undervalued Wide Receivers
When you head to the store and find a variety pack, many of us prefer ones full of our favorites. For sparkling waters, it seems the lime flavor receives less love than berry or watermelon. The same goes for the variety pack of snack-sized chips; the Cheetos tends to disappear quicker than the plain option. It's also why the box includes more Doritos and Cheetos since they're valued higher than the other options.
So what's with the chips talk other than to make us hungry? It's a way of making an analogy about undervalued items. In this case, undervalued wide receivers. Like the undervalued chip or drink options, there's a time and place where they have value and fit better.
We could argue all day about the term value because we know it's relative to the market and how others feel about the product or player.
We'll use KeepTradeCut (KTC) as a reference for publicly available market value because these four undervalued wide receivers might be the Cool Ranch or plain chip options among the players nearby. We'll also incorporate The 33rd Team's dynasty analyst Ian Miller's wide receiver rankings.
4 Undervalued Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Miller's WR27 vs. KTC WR36
Chip Variety Pack
- WR34, Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Nacho Cheese Doritos)
- WR35, Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars (Fritos)
- WR36, Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (Cool Ranch Doritos)
- WR37, Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns (Plain Lays)
- WR38, Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens (Cheetos)
From a volume perspective, Johnson earned a similar target share at 27 percent compared to 29 percent in 2021. Johnson also averaged a career-high in air yards per target (AY/T) at 10.2, up around two points from the last two years.
With some hype surrounding George Pickens, Johnson consistently earned opportunities, translating into the 17th-best EP/G at 14.2 among wide receivers. In the previous two seasons, Johnson ranked seventh (15.6) and second (18.3), indicating slight inefficiencies in actual production.
The above visual shows where Johnson shook out in weighted targets per route run (wTPRR), adding air yards to the formula. Johnson tied for 30th in wTPRR with DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Jakobi Meyers, Treylon Burks and Scotty Miller.
Though Johnson might not be close to Smith, Waddle or Burks in dynasty value, he could produce similar with a high EP/G role. Miller ranked Johnson close behind Burks in his rankings. That's a quality grouping to acquire for steady production with upside.
Final Takeaways
Johnson has a potential out in 2023, though he's under contract through 2024 with the Steelers. With a down season in 2022, one could argue to stay away from Johnson, especially because of Kenny Pickett's inconsistencies. Johnson averaged 9.1 PPR/G, with a natural dip in production. Still, he got a healthy amount of opportunities paired with Pickett, who averaged 5.1 adjusted yards per attempt (No. 33).
One could lean into the idea Johnson remains one of the undervalued wide receivers in dynasty and redraft leagues after an inefficient season of -3.8 FPOE/G (No. 247). Some historical comparisons based on receiving EP and FPOE/G, plus age and weight, include Garrett Wilson, Percy Harvin, Jarvis Landry and Russell Gage. Besides Wilson, because he's heading into Year 2, Johnson might compare closely to Landry, who posted a WR18 and WR12 season in Years 5 and 6.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Miller's WR43 vs. KTC WR48
Seltzer Variety Pack
- WR45, Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (Peach)
- WR46, Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos (Mango)
- WR47, Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills (Grapefruit)
- WR48, Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks (Lime)
- WR49, Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (Pineapple)
Lockett consistently lands in the category for undervalued wide receivers, with DK Metcalf garnering a higher ADP in redraft and dynasty formats. Age plays a factor, but Lockett's steady opportunity and efficiency during the past five seasons might be hard to match. Lockett compares similarly to Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Antonio Brown and Brandin Cooks as an accumulator in receiving EP and FPOE since 2015.
Since 2015, he's ranked eighth in receiving FPOE/G (2.7) behind elite names like Hill, Doug Baldwin, Justin Jefferson, Brown, Kupp and Michael Thomas. An outlier name in Kristian Wilkerson pops up, but we needed to set a minimum threshold of games played. Many had concerns for the receivers without Russell Wilson, but Geno Smith proved many of us wrong with 7.1 AY/A (No. 8) and 2.3 FPOE/G (No. 7).
Final Takeaways
Jaxon Smith-Njigba joining the team means fewer receiving opportunities for Lockett. However, there's a good chance the Seahawks keep a similar pass rate of 60 percent (tied for 11th). Age is a concern because Lockett will turn 31 to begin the 2023 season.
However, we've witnessed fantasy-relevant seasons by receivers at 30 years or older, including Larry Fitzgerald, Julian Edelman, Marvin Jones Jr., Adam Thielen and Julio Jones. Since 2015, those receivers reached the 200 PPR season-long threshold, and many surpassed 250 PPR points or 15+ PPR/G.
One concern involves the lowered yards per route run at 1.99, down from 2.49 in 2021. There's a chance Lockett posts another high-end or mid-range WR2 season. Most dynasty managers won't reach out to acquire Lockett at this stage.
Rondale Moore, WR, ARI
Miller's WR69 vs. KTC WR63
Popsicle Variety Pack
- WR60, Courtland Sutton, Denver (Cherry)
- WR61, Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers (Grape)
- WR62, Alec Pierce, Indianapolis (Lime)
- WR63, Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals (Orange)
- WR64, Nico Collins, Houston Texans (Blue Raspberry)
In an earlier article for The 33rd Team, we discussed cheaper alternatives at receiver, which included Moore. There's admittedly some bias, but Moore flashed some upside last season as a PPR machine. In Moore's seven healthy games, he averaged eight or more targets in six of those contests.
With the low air yards per target at 5.5 (No. 103), Moore converted tons of receiving production, evidenced by his third-best 1.34 receiver air yard conversion ratio (RACR). Thankfully, Moore's AY/T increased from an outlier of 1.5 (No. 108), and he kept the yards after the catch ability.
The above visual shows where Moore shakes out in yards after the catch per reception, as he ranks fourth with a low AY/T during the past two seasons. Hopefully, Moore is more of a Deebo Samuel light in YAC/Rec than Laviska Shenault, who we keep dreaming breaks out.
Moore fares better in the slot, with 8.6 YPRR (No. 52) compared to 5.2 YPRR out wide (No. 96). Ideally, the Cardinals' new coaches use Moore in a role where he'll thrive as a YAC/Rec monster.
Final Takeaways
When looking at the Year 1 and 2 comparisons for Moore, he comps to Elijah Moore, Keke Coutee, K.J. Hamler, Curtis Samuel and Robert Woods based on receiving EP and FPOE/G. The latter two might present the most intrigue, though Elijah Moore also falls into the bucket of talented yet undervalued wide receivers named Moore. Samuel posted a WR36 season in Year 3 and WR25 in Year 4, with Woods breaking out in Year 6.
There are questions about whether the new coaching staff will maintain the team's high pass rate after ranking fifth at 62 percent, up from 57 percent in 2021 (No. 21). Even without Kyler Murray for half of the season, the Cardinals still boasted an identical pass rate of 62 percent, probably due to their awful defense.
That's likely why they hired former Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon as head coach. Rondale Moore's health remains concerning, but the data aligned with his prospect profile just a few years ago.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, LV
Miller's WR49 vs. KTC WR56
Candy Variety Pack
- WR53, Skyy Moore, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (Skittles)
- WR54, JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, New England Patriots (3 Musketeers)
- WR55, Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants (Snickers)
- WR56, Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (M&M's)
- WR57, Darnell Mooney, WR Chicago Bears (Starburst)
It's hard to project how the Raiders' offense will shake out with the addition of Meyers and QB Jimmy Garoppolo, plus the loss of QB Derek Carr and TE Darren Waller. It seems like a downgrade in talent for the Raiders, so why would Meyers land as one of the undervalued wide receivers? The underlying metrics don't pop off the page, but Meyers could fit well alongside Davante Adams.
In 2021, Meyers posted a career-best in total targets (126) and target share (24 percent), with inefficient production, evidenced by his -1.2 FPOE/G (No. 224). Though the raw target total for Meyers fell to 95 (No. 36), his target share remained similar at 22 percent (No. 30).
The Patriots' pass rate (58 percent) and pace (27.1 seconds per snap) also looked similar to 2021. However, RB Rhamondre Stevenson stole the show with an 18 percent target share last season, causing Meyers' opportunities to dip.
Meanwhile, Meyers improved his efficiency with 1.8 FPOE/G (No. 28) via six touchdowns after two in three previous seasons. The table above includes Week 18, so Meyers ranked 15th in FPOE/G last season. That translated into a similar output in fantasy points.
Meyers also converted a higher RACR, with a 0.85 RACR (No. 30) in 2022 and 0.71 RACR (No. 66) in 2021. That aligns with an improved YPRR at 2.06 in 2022 versus 1.73 YPRR in 2021, yet an identical wTPRR at 62 percent. Meyers has shown some boring consistency, which seems underappreciated when we're chasing the upside.
Final Takeaways
The challenging part involves projecting an opportunity share for Meyers in 2023, with Adams dominating last season via a 33 percent target share. There's a good chance Meyers matches or slightly exceeds the 17 percent target share of Mack Hollins in 2022.
Meyers is undoubtedly an upgrade to Hollins, and there are some question marks about where Hunter Renfrow fits. Renfrow wasn't effective last year after a massive WR9 season in 2021, which might have been his outlier season.
So where does Meyers thrive? Adams garnered 29.2 percent of his TPRR against zone coverage, which he ran most of his routes against (table above). Meyers only earned a few opportunities to produce at a high level against zone defenses but has been respectable.
Meanwhile, Meyers matches Adams in TPRR against man coverage with Meyers at 31 percent vs. Adams at 28 percent (table below).
However, it's a much smaller sample against man defenses. Meyers performs better against man defenses and less against zone (19.2 percent TPRR). It's an uphill battle on how Meyers survives and thrives.
However, there's a good chance he will finish somewhere between 2021 and 2022 as an upside WR3.
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