Analysis

11/5/23

7 min read

C.J. Stroud Isn't Just Top Rookie QB, He's Already One Of NFL's Best

By Derrik Klassen

Film Analyst
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud

Imagine stepping into the NFL without an ounce of fear. Not scared of pressure, not scared to make any throws. Entirely unafraid to go out there and ball the way you know you can. There just aren't many young quarterbacks wired like that. 

C.J. Stroud is different. He is the exception — a rookie who plays with all the knowledge and confidence of a five-year vet. 

That's been evident with Stroud all year, but it came to a head against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. It became undeniable. 

After a slow start, Stroud came alive. He threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns en route to a thrilling 39-37 win against the Buccaneers. The box score and the eye test would tell you it was one of the most impressive performances a rookie quarterback has ever put together, full stop.

A Day for the Ages

First, let's contextualize what Stroud did against the Buccaneers. The numbers paint quite a picture. 

Stroud completed 30 of 42 passes for 470 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. That sounds absurd, but it's even more impressive when you dig a little into the history books. 

Stroud's 470 passing yards are the most by any rookie in a single game. The previous record was rookie Marc Bulger's 453-yard game against the Chargers in 2002. 

It was only the third time a rookie quarterback has thrown for at least five touchdowns in a game, joining Matthew Stafford and Daniel Jones. 

This wasn't just historic passing volume for a rookie, though. It was historic for anyone. Before Stroud's game on Sunday, there were only 19 other performances with at least 450 passing yards and five touchdowns in NFL history, per Pro Football Reference.

Hall of Famers — and players sure to wind up as such — make up more than half the list, including Patrick Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Dan Marino, Joe Montana and others. 

Player TDs Date
Drew Brees 7 11/1/2015
Peyton Manning 7 9/5/2013
Y.A. Tittle 7 10/28/1962
Matt Flynn 6 1/1/2012
Johnny Lujack 6 12/11/1949
Patrick Mahomes 6 11/19/2018
Joe Montana 6 10/14/1990
Joe Namath 6 9/24/1972
Ben Roethlisberger 6 10/26/2014
Tua Tagovailoa 6 9/18/2022
Gus Frerotte 5 11/19/2000
Jared Goff 5 9/27/2018
Peyton Manning 5 10/31/2004
Dan Marino 5 9/4/1994
Donovan McNabb 5 12/5/2004
Tony Romo 5 10/6/2013
Matt Schaub 5 11/18/2012
Matthew Stafford 5 1/1/2012
Norm Van Brocklin 5 9/28/1951

Only five of those 19 games were without an interception, as Stroud was Sunday. Of those five interception-less quarterbacks, four played for the championship later that season: 1962 Y.A. Tittle, 2004 Donovan McNabb, 2013 Peyton Manning and 2018 Jared Goff. 

It's probably safe to say the Houston Texans won't play in the Super Bowl this year, but for Stroud to do what Super Bowl-bound quarterbacks were doing in a young, incomplete offense as a rookie is mind-boggling. That's not supposed to happen. 

Tape Tells the Tale

The eye test was just as convincing as the record-breaking numbers. Stroud was exceptional. Pocket management, decision-making, timing, accuracy — you name it, Stroud had it on Sunday. Everything was so in control, yet so aggressive. You could have easily mistook Stroud for 2016 Matt Ryan with the way he was playing. 

Stroud's command of the offense is delightful. Even some of the little things Stroud does to take advantage of the system are fun to watch. Take his first touchdown pass of the day to Nico Collins, for example. 

This is a packaged play. It's technically a called run, but the backside slant is attached as an "alert" for the quarterback. If Stroud recognizes a good matchup pre-snap, he can throw the slant instead of handing the ball off. And that's what happens here.

Stroud carries through the fake, resets and hits Collins in stride for a touchdown. That pre-snap control, rhythm and ball placement is as good as it gets. 

Stroud's vision and anticipation were also on full display. He's already so skilled at identifying coverages and getting the ball out in a heartbeat. Those are typically challenging obstacles for a rookie quarterback to overcome — understandably so — but Stroud is special. 

Stroud's fourth-quarter touchdown throw to TE Dalton Schultz was a clear example. 

It doesn't show up in this clip, but the Texans shifted WR Tank Dell from left to right into the slot before the snap. Nobody on the Buccaneers' defense followed Dell directly. Between that and the Buccaneers sitting in a two-deep shell with the cornerbacks high off the line of scrimmage, Stroud had a good indication the Tampa Bay defense would be in Cover 4 zone coverage. 

With that kind of coverage in the red zone, the cornerbacks will be playing top-down and waiting for the receivers to break. Stroud weaponized that against them. The moment Schultz begins getting into his break at the bottom of the screen, Stroud is already gearing up to throw. There's zero disconnect between himself and when the receiver is coming open. 

The timing is too precise for the corner to have any shot at reacting to it. Couple that with a perfect throw, and it's an easy touchdown for the Texans. 

Playing Without Fear

It's not just Stroud's control that pops off the screen in these moments, though. It's his aggression — his fearlessness. Stroud is unafraid to rip it down the field and into tight windows. Stroud believes he can make any throw in the world, and he plays with the preparation and arm talent to back it up. 

The whole game is a testament to that, but no moment encapsulates it more than Stroud's second-to-last throw on the game-winning drive. When the Texans needed him most, Stroud stepped up to the plate without fear. 

Here’s the situation: second-and-10, 16 seconds left, down four points. That's a death sentence for most rookie quarterbacks, but Stroud didn't flinch. Stroud saw the Buccaneers' Cover 2 shell and knew precisely how to attack it. After opening the play with his eyes to the right, Stroud snapped back to the left side and threw a dart to Dell on a deep corner route into the Cover 2 "honey hole." 

No hesitation, no second-guessing. Just grip it and rip it to make one of the toughest throws an NFL quarterback can make in a high-pressure moment. That is big-boy quarterbacking at its finest. 

Stroud found Dell again over the middle of the end zone on the very next play, and that was that — ballgame, Texans win 39 to 37. All because Stroud was fearless enough to make the throw he needed to make to put the offense in a position to score. 

Rare Breed of Quarterback

We're witnessing something special with Stroud. He's the kind of rookie quarterback that only comes along every so often. He is a rookie who not only establishes himself as a franchise quarterback for years to come but as a force to be reckoned with right now, in the moment. 

Think back to 2008 Matt Ryan, 2012 Russell Wilson, 2016 Dak Prescott and 2020 Justin Herbert. That's the caliber of quarterback I'm talking about. Those players felt like they were top quarterbacks right away, and the numbers backed it up. Both your eyes and favorite stats told you those guys were immediate and perennial Pro Bowlers. 

Stroud is as good as those guys were as rookies, if not better. Stroud's 7.89 adjusted net yards per attempt through nine games is on pace to beat Prescott's record of 7.86.

Quarterback Name Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt as Rookie Year
Dak Prescott  7.86 2016
Robert Griffin III 7.47 2012
Matt Ryan 7.01 2008
Russell Wilson 7.01 2012
Justin Herbert 6.84 2020
Baker Mayfield 6.77 2018
Jameis Winston  6.44 2015
Gardner Minshew II 6.44 2019
Cam Newton  6.24 2011
Mac Jones 6.22 2021

Maybe Stroud won't quite hold that pace, but even being in the running for that record says enough. 

All this is to say: don't be afraid to embrace Stroud right now. We don't have to do the "oh, he's still a rookie, let's wait and see" bit. We've seen enough. Stroud is a very good NFL quarterback right now, and he will only get better.

Derrik Klassen is an NFL and NFL Draft film analyst with a particular interest in quarterbacks. Klassen’s work is also featured on Bleacher Report and Reception Perception. You can follow him on Twitter (X) at @QBKlass.

Tags: C.J. Stroud, Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans See More

Derrik Klassen

Film Analyst

Derrik Klassen is an NFL and NFL Draft film analyst with a particular interest in quarterbacks. Klassen's work is also featured on Bleacher Report and Reception Perception.

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