Betting 2023 NFL Draft: What Team Will Take Bijan Robinson?
Betting 2/27/23
You can bet on the team that’s going to draft Texas Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson (scouting report) on DraftKings Sportsbook. This is the only draft-related bet of this type currently available on BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel or PointsBet.
A lot can happen between now and when the NFL Draft kicks off on April 27. The combine starts this week and pro days will follow. Both of those events can impact a prospect’s draft status. Free agency kicks off in a few weeks, which will alter team needs for a variety of organizations. Draft-related trades could change which teams have which picks.
Despite those uncertainties, we can still create a pool of options in this market. To accomplish that, I’m going to go through every NFL team to determine how likely they are to draft Robinson. After that, I’ll finish up with the teams I like the most in this market. But first, we should take a quick look at recent running backs that were taken in the first round.
First-Round RBs of the Last 10 Years
Year | Players Selected | Selection Number |
2013 | None | N/A |
2014 | None | N/A |
2015 | Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon | Gurly (10th), Gordon (15th) |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott | 4th |
2017 | Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey | Fournette (4th), McCaffrey (8th) |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel | Barkley (2nd), Penny (27th), Michel (31) |
2019 | Josh Jacobs | 24th |
2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 32nd |
2021 | Najee Harris and Travis Etienne | Harris (24th), Etienne (25th) |
2022 | None | N/A |
After former New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman’s decision to begin a rebuild by taking a running back with the second overall pick in 2018, no one has taken a RB inside the top 20 since. That said, Robinson is the best running back prospect in the last five years.
Robinson is the sixth overall prospect in this class with a 6.99 grade, according to The 33rd Team's scouting department. NFL.com has Robinson graded at a 6.80, which is the same grade they gave Todd Gurley in 2015.
We should expect Robinson to be selected somewhere near the 10th pick in this year’s draft.
Going Through the First Round
Pick 1: Chicago Bears
Odds: (+1800)
Even if the Chicago Bears trade back, it would be a surprise if they took a running back in the first round. Chicago has too many holes on their roster to make that decision.
Pick 2: Houston Texans
Odds: (+2800)
It’s a near certainty the Houston Texans take a quarterback with this selection.
Pick 3: Arizona Cardinals
Odds: (+5000)
There’s a high chance the Arizona Cardinals take one of the draft’s premium pass rushers here like Alabama's Will Anderson (scouting report) or Georgia's Jalen Carter (scouting report).
Pick 4: Indianapolis Colts
Odds: (+10000)
The Indianapolis Colts are likely to select a quarterback, and they already have a starting RB, Jonathan Taylor. Colts owner Jim Irsay even hinted at the team's interest in the quarterback class when introducing new head coach Shane Steichen.
Pick 5: Seattle Seahawks
Odds: (+7500)
The Seattle Seahawks have breakout performer Kenneth Walker, so they don’t have a need at the running back position.
Pick 6: Detroit Lions
Odds: (+1200)
The Detroit Lions are likely to select a premium defensive player here. That said, if Detroit decides to move D’Andre Swift, the Lions become a fascinating landing spot for Robinson.
Pick 7: Las Vegas Raiders
Odds: (+3500)
Josh Jacobs is a free agent, but it would be borderline malpractice for the Las Vegas Raiders to let Jacobs walk and then use the seventh pick on a new running back.
Pick 8: Atlanta Falcons
Odds: (+750)
The Atlanta Falcons need a new future at quarterback and considerable help on defense. However, adding Robinson to a group that includes Drake London and Kyle Pitts would give them one of the league’s best young trios of skill position players. Additionally, Arthur Smith leaned heavily on the run last year, just as he did when he was the Titans' offensive coordinator. If the quarterbacks Atlanta likes are gone, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Smith got a new headliner for his backfield.
Pick 9: Carolina Panthers
Odds: (+2000)
The Carolina Panthers are in a similar position to the Falcons roster-wise. They need a new future at quarterback, and they don’t have a championship-caliber supporting cast. A big difference between the two landing spots is Smith’s offense is more run-centric than Frank Reich’s. That said, Reich had Taylor in Indianapolis, so we shouldn’t completely rule out Carolina in the Robinson sweepstakes.
Pick 10: Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: (+275)
This would be one of, if not the best, landing spot for Robinson. That said, it would be a genuine surprise if the Philadelphia Eagles spent the 10th pick on a running back.
Pick 11: Tennessee Titans
Odds: (+7500)
The Tennessee Titans have a ton of holes on their roster and they still have Derrick Henry.
Pick 12: Houston Texans
Odds: (+2800)
Assuming the Texans draft a quarterback with their first pick, it would make sense to use this selection on a difference-making skill position player. This wide receiver draft class is weaker than last year’s. Houston could decide Robinson is the biggest difference maker they can get for their new quarterback.
Pick 13: New York Jets
Odds: (+5000)
The New York Jets have 2022 draft pick Breece Hall, so they don’t have a need at the running back position.
Pick 14: New England Patriots
Odds: (+2500)
The New England Patriots haven’t taken a running back in the first round since 2006. Rhamondre Stevenson was productive last season, and the Patriots could use upgrades at multiple positions. We shouldn’t rule them out, but they probably shouldn’t take a running back here.
Pick 15: Green Bay Packers
Odds: (+10000):
The Green Bay Packers are bringing back Aaron Jones, and they still have A.J. Dillon. Running back isn’t a need for them.
Pick 16: Washington Commanders
Odds: (+5000)
No one could have really hoped for much more out of Brian Robinson last season. That said, if Robinson is still available, the Washington Commanders will at least consider taking him. I’d set Washington’s odds closer to +2500 to draft him, personally.
Pick 17: Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds: (+7500)
The Pittsburgh Steelers recently invested a first-round pick in Harris, who is entering his third season.
Pick 18: Detroit Lions
Odds: (+1200)
If Robinson is still available, the Lions could use their second first-round pick to build a monster skill group by selecting the former Longhorn. In general, I would be surprised if Robinson made it past this selection.
Pick 19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds: (+2000)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a transitional phase, so it would be unwise for them to select a running back with this pick.
Pick 20: Seattle Seahawks
Odds: (+7500)
I don't expect Seattle to use either of their first-round picks on a running back.
Pick 21: Los Angeles Chargers
Odds: (+4000)
Austin Ekeler has been great the past two seasons, but he’ll turn 28 in May. I don’t think Robinson ends up with the Los Angeles Chargers, in part because I don’t think he’ll still be available, but I won’t rule them out.
Pick 22: Baltimore Ravens
Odds: (+1200)
The Baltimore Ravens haven’t taken a running back in the first round since 2000. From a pure football perspective, it would be fascinating to see Robinson and Lamar Jackson on the same team. From a team-building perspective, I’d be a little surprised if Baltimore took a running back in the first round.
Pick 23: Minnesota Vikings
Odds: (+2000)
The Minnesota Vikings are in a similar position to the Chargers in the Robinson sweepstakes. If he’s there, they have to at least think about it with Dalvin Cook turning 28 this summer.
Pick 24: Jacksonville Jaguars
Odds: (+4500)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have Etienne, so they don’t have a real need at the position.
Pick 25: New York Giants
Odds: (+5000)
It would be bizarre if the New York Giants let Barkley walk to then draft Robinson. Especially when you consider how many below-average position groups the Giants still have.
Pick 26: Dallas Cowboys
Odds: (+500)
The Dallas Cowboys are a semi-contender for Robinson with Elliott in decline and Tony Pollard hitting free agency (with a major leg injury). “Jerry Jones drafts superstar Longhorn running back” certainly sounds like a potential late-April headline.
Pick 27: Buffalo Bills
Odds: (+400)
If Robinson is still available at this point, it would be fairly shocking if he made it past the Buffalo Bills.
Pick 28: Cincinnati Bengals
Odds: (+2000)
The chances of Robinson being available here are slim, but the Cincinnati Bengals would be among his ideal potential landing spots.
Pick 29: New Orleans Saints
Odds: (+3000)
The New Orleans Saints have bigger needs than running back, and Robinson will likely be gone by this point.
Pick 30: Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: (+275)
It’s not likely the Eagles spend the 10th overall pick on a running back. But I think they would use the 31st pick on Robinson if he’s somehow still available.
Pick 31: Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: (+1500)
If Robinson is still available, I can’t see the Kansas City Chiefs passing on him.
Teams with No First Round Pick
Miami Dolphins
Odds: (+2500)
The Miami Dolphins would be a fascinating landing spot for Robinson, but they’d likely have to move into the middle of the first round to get him, and I don’t see that happening.
Los Angeles Rams
Odds: (+4000)
The Los Angeles Rams have too many holes on their roster to trade up for a running back.
Denver Broncos
Odds: (+7500)
Robinson would be a good fit in Sean Payton’s offense, but the Denver Broncos aren’t in a great position to acquire him.
San Francisco 49ers
Odds: (+7500)
The San Francisco 49ers have McCaffrey and no first-round pick. There’s close to no chance Robinson ends up here.
Cleveland Browns
Odds: (+10000)
The presence of Nick Chubb and no first-round pick make the Cleveland Browns one of Robinson’s most unlikely destinations.
My Favorite Options in this Market
Houston Texans
Houston has the draft capital to pair Robinson with its first-round quarterback. Pairing their new quarterback with the player many think is the best skill position asset in the draft isn’t unreasonable. Dameon Pierce had a good rookie year, but I’m not sure he’s a real deterrent to making this decision. I’d set the Texans at +800 in this market if I was an oddsmaker. Right now, the Texans are the only team I’m considering a bet on in this market.
Detroit Lions
The Lions might be the favorite in this market if they didn’t have Swift. Detroit’s two first-round picks bookend the range Robinson will likely be selected in.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons want a quarterback in this draft, but what do they do if they don’t get one? The answer might be drafting Robinson.
Washington Commanders
I’d have Washington at +2500 in this market.