Could Buffalo Bills Survive Without Stefon Diggs?
Analysis 6/15/23
We’ll let the Twitter sleuths sort out what is happening between Stefon Diggs and the Buffalo Bills. From a football standpoint, the best way to contextualize the situation is to examine the hypothetical worst-case scenario, which is: what if the Bills do not have Diggs in 2023?
That would make them a less talented offense. Diggs, with his elite body control, route running nuance (especially on double moves) and ability to separate at all three levels, is a top-tier wide receiver. But that does not necessarily mean the Bills are dependent on him.
This isn’t like Justin Jefferson in Minnesota’s deep-intermediate play-action game. Or Davante Adams headlining an otherwise underwhelmingly talented Las Vegas Raiders passing game. Or Tyreek Hill in a Miami Dolphins system predicated on leveraging his speed.
Can Buffalo's Offense Adapt?
In Buffalo, the offense relies on Josh Allen’s unique – and often unbelievable – playmaking. The Bills do not have an intricate ground game. So, naturally, they have a fairly middling play-action game, which they dial up about eight times a contest (right around the league average). But this isn’t to say they are the Ben Roethlisberger-era Pittsburgh Steelers. They’re not simply lining up in spread sets and just letting their star quarterback attack simple 1-on-1 matchups to his talented skill players.
Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has a more developed system than that, featuring shrewd stack releases and rub routes on third-and-medium/short, zone-beating concepts (including flood and dagger) on deeper drops and more personnel diversification than one would guess from a team that ran “11” on 72 percent of snaps last year (sixth-most in the league).
The first-round selection of tight end Dalton Kincaid to pair with veteran tight end Dawson Knox suggests a shift to more “12” personnel is in order. The additions of mauling-type guards David Edwards (Rams free agent signing) and O’Cyrus Torrence (second-round pick) to go with free agent running back Damien Harris (a thumper from New England) suggests an increased commitment to a power-run game.
Inevitably, that results in an increased commitment to play-action, which means an increased commitment to more timing and rhythm pass plays. In other words, less reliance on Allen’s playmaking and more reliance on collective execution. This suggests an increased reliance on Diggs since, as a predominant Z receiver (aligning on the same side as the tight end), he would be involved in the meaty part of most designed route combinations.
But that’s assuming everything goes to plan. Few quarterbacks in history have evolved as much as Allen has since his 2018 rookie season. A pure power thrower coming out of Wyoming, Allen improved his accuracy (almost unheard of in the NFL) and learned to apply it to more ball-controlling quick game designs.
His incredible development has earned him the benefit of the doubt for adapting to a more team-oriented brand of football, where he aims to manage the offense more and carry less. Buffalo hopes this will lead to a steadier Allen over the long haul, one who is less exposed to wear and tear and perhaps less vulnerable to mini slumps like the one he battled last November.
Still, no other quarterback save Patrick Mahomes can carry his offense like Allen. For a quarterback with that type of talent, it’s hard not to rely too much on it.
Use Chiefs' Blueprint?
Mahomes, in a way, brings us back to Diggs. When the Kansas City Chiefs traded Hill, many (including yours truly) believed subtracting the league’s most-feared speedster would set back their offense. Hill was the fulcrum of Kansas City’s extremely downfield-oriented passing game. He was who defenses built their coverages around.
But what ultimately happened to the Chiefs without Hill? They got better, leading the league in yards and points in 2022 and winning a second Super Bowl. There were two reasons for this:
First, Mahomes and Andy Reid did a spectacular job shifting to a more patient passing game. While not quite dink and dunk, it was a far more sustaining passing game than early in Mahomes’ career. This process started the previous year, as defenses played so many two-deep looks that Mahomes’ average depth of target in 2021 fell dramatically from 8.4 to 7.2. It stayed in that range (7.2) in 2022.
Second, when Mahomes needed to put on his Superman cape, his receivers easily rose to the occasion. Why? Because when a quarterback extends plays as spectacularly as Mahomes, a receiver does not have to be Hill or Randy Moss or Jerry Rice to get open. Mahomes breaks down the defense inherently, the receiver — for lack of a better phrase — just needs to show up.
This is also true with Allen. Because of him, the Bills — incredibly — were the only offense last year that, by most metrics, netted overall positive results when their quarterback was pressured. Such unbelievable playmaking ability – be it as a scrambler or, especially, as a downfield passer on the move – is hard for Allen, or any quarterback, to resist. Even if doing so does make him a steadier quarterback.
The two arguments working against the idea of Allen evolving into a near-perfect blend of game management and playmaking like Mahomes has would be this:
1. Hopeful as the Bills are about Kincaid, Allen likely will not have an all-time great receiving tight end like Travis Kelce. That matters (a lot), especially when talking about relying more on patient, underneath passing designs.
2. While Buffalo’s passing scheme might be a little more sophisticated than people think, it is by no means Kansas City’s. Reid’s aerial attack is as crafty as maybe any in history.
It reasons that Allen, while capable of evolving into a more complete quarterback, will end up still trying to carry the Bills with his preternatural playmaking prowess in 2023. The big picture question — can you win a Super Bowl playing this way? — is a huge but separate discussion. Our question at hand: how crucial is Diggs to this?
Can Bills Rely on Other Options?
You might not need superstar receivers to cash in on late-in-the-down playmaking opportunities. Still, a superstar receiver can help create more of these opportunities, especially in Buffalo’s case. While wideout Gabriel Davis, a classic 6-foot-2, 225-pound boundary X type, was not quite as disappointing in Year 3 as many believe, he did not take an anticipated quantum leap. Still, he won on plenty of deep-intermediate designs and finished with 836 yards.
It’s fair to say that right now Davis is just a so-so No. 2 option. It’s hard to imagine him as even a de facto No.1. The rest of Buffalo’s receiving corps is in a similar light: decent talents who are still developing and are by no means sure things, even if “sure thing” in this case just means “viable starter.”
Given that Buffalo had a league-best 44 percent success rate against zone coverage on third downs in 2022, they’re likely to face more man coverage in 2023. The only thing stopping defenses from doing this is Allen’s mobility. When man coverage defenders chase their receivers, scramble lanes can open up.
If Diggs is gone, man coverage becomes accessible because no defense will even consider double-teaming any of Buffalo’s other receivers. The defense could then afford to play man, keep eyes on Allen and still have a free safety patrolling the middle.
But let’s not get carried away with how things look on paper. Yes, a defense can spy Allen in man. But that doesn’t mean it’ll stop Allen. Defenses have been spying Allen in man coverage already. And one or two successful Allen scrambles early in the season could be enough to scare more defenses into playing zone – even if the numbers suggest that’s a perilous idea. Against zone coverage, Diggs’s absence would be less painful.
We can go in circles like this all day. The bottom line? Diggs is a great receiver, and yes, the Bills could really, really use him. But the only player the Bills absolutely need is No. 17.
Andy Benoit worked for Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams coaching staff from 2020 through 2022. Before that, he was a football analyst, writer and content producer for Peter King’s MMQB at Sports Illustrated, as well as at CBS Sports and The New York Times. You can follow him on Twitter @Andy_Benoit.