NFL Analysis
12/15/23
16 min read
4 Teams That Should Get Off the Quarterback Carousel
Everything is close in the NFL. Only two teams have officially been eliminated from playoff contention, leaving most of the league with the hope of making a run. While there are teams bunched at the top of the standings, the same is true on the other end.
The Carolina Panthers have a clear path to the worst record, which would give the first Draft pick to the Chicago Bears. It seems likely the Bears will use that to start fresh, move on from Justin Fields and draft a quarterback. But Chicago isn’t the only team facing that type of decision.
With so many teams in range of the top-three picks with two, potentially three, well-regarded quarterback prospects, let’s take a look at some of the decisions for teams in range of those players. Who could be looking for a new passer, how did those teams get in that position, and what will happen to the team's current quarterback?
Riding the QB Carousel
New England Patriots
Chance of a top-three pick: 75 percent, per ESPN Analytics
How did they get here?
Everything that could have gone wrong for the New England Patriots' offense this season has gone wrong. Bill O’Brien was brought in as offensive coordinator in an attempt to get Mac Jones back to his rookie-year production, but statistically, Jones has been worse in 2023 than he was during the disastrous 2022 season.
Last season, Jones averaged -0.17 EPA per play and 6.8 yards per attempt. This season, he’s averaged -0.25 EPA per play and 6.1 yards per attempt. That EPA per play figure ranks 34th of 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season, per TruMedia.
Jones was benched for Bailey Zappe in New England’s Week 12 game against the New York Giants. But he hasn’t provided any improvement. Of those 42 quarterbacks, Zappe, the 2022 fourth-round pick, ranks 42nd in EPA per play.
Other moves attempting to upgrade the offense haven’t paid off, either. JuJu Smith-Schuster had a season-high performance against one of his former teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers, with a four-catch, 90-yard day, but he’s topped 50 receiving yards in just one other game. Mike Gesicki ranks 48th in yards per route run among 60 tight ends with at least 100 routes.
Should they consider a qB?
Absolutely. As the current holder of the second overall pick, the Patriots find themselves in a position to make a clean restart at the position — and possibly at other places, depending on other decisions from ownership at the end of the season.
New England could draft whichever quarterback doesn’t go first overall and start the new era of Patriots football.
What would happen to the incumbent?
Jones looks broken and will likely have to settle for a backup role elsewhere in the league. As a rookie, Jones at least looked like a capable starter, and there isn’t much precedent for a competent rookie season followed by two seasons as one of the league’s worst quarterbacks. He could be the beneficiary of an emphasis on the importance of backup quarterbacks and land with a team that could want the type of backup with starting experience — something like the Mitch Trubisky path backing up Josh Allen for a year after Trubisky's run in Chicago.
Jones still has $4.9 million in guaranteed salary remaining on his rookie deal for the 2024 season. However, that’s a dead-money figure the Patriots would easily take, especially with a new rookie quarterback deal on the books. Should Jones get traded, perhaps for a Day 3 pick, the Patriots would split that 2024 figure with the new team. A one-year deal for just under $2.5 million is a more than acceptable backup contract.
Arizona Cardinals
Chance of a top-three pick: 65 percent, per ESPN Analytics
How did they get here?
With Kyler Murray rehabbing a torn ACL to start the year, the Arizona Cardinals have bounced among quarterbacks. Colt McCoy was released around the final roster cuts in the preseason, and the team traded for Joshua Dobbs just weeks before the season started and inserted him as the starter. The Cardinals traded Dobbs to the Minnesota Vikings before the trade deadline and went with rookie Clayton Tune for a game before Murray returned to the lineup.
Arizona remained competitive without winning many games early in the year — a testament to the structure in place by coach Jonathan Gannon and OC Drew Petzing. The Cardinals haven’t turned into some offensive force since Murray returned, but they rank 19th in yards per play and 16th in success rate (up from 26th and 27th, respectively) and are 2-2 over that span.
Should they consider a qB?
This could be the most interesting decision for a team in this position. The most valuable asset in the NFL is a good quarterback on a rookie contract. But what’s often overlooked in that conversation is that the next most valuable asset is a good quarterback in general. Murray has been a good quarterback throughout his career, sometimes despite his surroundings and offensive environment.
Murray has still been working out some rust during his return, but Arizona’s improvement on offense with him on the field while he’s still getting back to form is a positive sign. There have been flashes of the old Murray with scrambles and some deep throws, such as the 48-yard touchdown to Rondale Moore against the Texans.
There have also been some plays that have just missed.
Another deep touchdown to Moore against the Steelers was called back on a hold, and a potential long gain hit Moore’s hands later in the game. The instant connection with TE Trey McBride, who has a 26.8 percent target share and 2.67 yards per route run with Murray at quarterback, is also a plus.
Some of the concerns could be brushed away. On intermediate throws between 11-19 air yards, Murray has only completed 32 percent of his passes, with the seventh-highest rate of inaccurate attempts. It’s been the issue where Murray looks the most out of sync.
Those issues are exasperated because Murray is throwing to that area of the field at a career-high rate of 19.1 percent. After a 15.2 percent rate over his first three seasons. Murray hasn’t been a top intermediate thrower. Still, he has completed 53.6 percent of those passes previously in his career, and that’s partially weighed down by a 44 percent completion rate during his rookie season. Despite the ups and downs, Murray’s only season finishing with negative EPA came in 2022.
Few quarterbacks can combine Murray’s arm strength and play-making ability. The combination is something that wasn’t always on full display in Arizona’s previous offense. Murray threw over a quarter of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage under former coach Kliff Kingsbury, which is an area the Cardinals now avoid. Just 17.7 percent of Murray's throws have been at or behind the line, a career-low. His 9.0-yard aDOT is also a career-high, with no other season above 7.9.
The Cardinals adding a receiver such as Marvin Harrison Jr. to add some size to a receiving corps that consists of Rondale Moore and Marquise Brown (a pending free agent) could have a bigger impact on improving the offense than completely starting over at quarterback.
What would happen to the incumbent?
This is why the Cardinals would really have to be swayed to move on from Murray: Arizona would take on a $46 million dead money hit should the team trade Murray in the offseason before June 1. We’ve seen teams take on significant dead money hits to move on from quarterbacks before, but those situations felt less tenable than what Murray and the Cardinals are facing.
Publicly, both the quarterback and Arizona leadership have praised each other during the year.
Murray should get some trade interest if he is available. An acquiring team would get the former first-overall pick for five years at just under $197 million with only $35.5 million guaranteed from his 2024 salary, per Over The Cap. That contract, by average, would be in the bottom half of the top 10 for quarterbacks, a fitting place to spot Murray.
It’s possible he will work out the kinks over the final weeks of the regular season and play Arizona out of this spot. There have already been enough flashes to justify keeping the quarterback next season and building around him. This may be a decision that won’t become clear until these final games play out.
Washington Commanders
Chance of a top-three pick: 38 percent, per ESPN Analytics
How did they get here?
The Washington Commanders have never wavered from the belief that Sam Howell could be The Guy. While he has put up a lot of passing yards while leading the league in drop-backs, the performance hasn’t always been efficient.
The biggest negative early on for Howell was the sack rate. Over the first seven weeks of the season, he was sacked on 13.5 percent of his drop-backs. But after a six-sack game against the New York Giants, Howell started to turn things around.
Since Week 8, he has dropped his sack rate to 6.6 percent. While that’s a positive, the overall production unfortunately hasn’t changed much. Howell’s success rate has jumped from 39.6 to 42.4 percent in that span, but he’s gone from just -0.11 EPA per play to -0.07, which ranks 21st. He’s averaged 6.8 yards per attempt in both of those samples.
Washington’s offense has been fine, ranked 22nd in EPA per drop-back, while the defense has been the bigger issue. The Commanders are 32nd in points allowed per drive and have allowed a score on a league-high 46.9 percent of opposing drives. The next-worst team is 42 percent; Washington is one of three teams above 40 percent on the year. That has put a load on the offense that the unit has been unable to carry.
Should they consider a qB?
Howell has been impressive for a fifth-round pick, but that should not be mistaken for the play of a potential franchise quarterback, especially if Washington falls into a top pick.
There is arguably no franchise more set up for a complete reset than Washington with a new owner and likely a new coaching staff for the 2024 season. Ron Rivera has been the leader of the Howell backing, but Rivera might not be leading anything in Washington after the season concludes.
There are clean breaks for contracts across the roster, allowing it to be shaped in any way whoever is in charge could want. The Commanders started moving pieces at the trade deadline, getting draft picks for Chase Young and Montez Sweat. With those added picks, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Commanders attempt to move up in the draft should they not fall in striking distance of a quarterback.
Washington has some pieces in place that would be assets for the future quarterback. A rookie could do much worse than a receiving duo of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.
What would happen to the incumbent?
Howell is still cheap enough that he could serve as a useful backup. He’ll still have two years remaining on his contract at just over $2 million total. That would give Washington an affordable player with starting experience
Current backup Jacoby Brissett was signed to just a one-year deal and would hit the market as a likely desired target around the league. Brissett signed with the Commanders to compete with Howell to be the starter. It was always Howell’s job to lose, and that level of support has kept Brissett on the bench all season after filling in admirably during the first half of the season with Cleveland in 2022.
There will be many teams looking for a backup of Brissett’s caliber, especially as a reaction to this season, which had so many injuries to starting quarterbacks. But the problem is that quarterbacks like Brissett won’t be looking for a backup role as a first option.
Brissett could seek another opportunity to battle for a job, or he could end up with one of the teams who draft one of the top quarterbacks in this year's class. Could Brissett return to New England and serve as a bridge to a rookie at the start of the season if the Patriots go that route? It wouldn’t be a bad option.
New York Giants
Chance of a top-three pick: Six percent, per ESPN Analytics
How did they get here?
Just a few weeks ago, the New York Giants looked destined for a top pick. Daniel Jones was playing poorly and missed three games in the middle of the season with a neck injury. He was replaced by Tyrod Taylor, who eventually suffered a rib injury that put him on injured reserve. Jones returned briefly, but a torn ACL ended his season in Week 9. Since then, the quarterback has been Tommy DeVito, an undrafted rookie from Syracuse.
Somehow, the Giants have won three games in a row, which has put them in the back half of the top 10. The Giants still have the third-worst point differential in the league, and only the Philadelphia Eagles (+3.01) have won more games than the Giants (+2.17) this season than would be expected by Pythagorean win expectation.
Despite those wins, this New York offense is still 31st in offensive success rate and yards per play. There’s not much difference between the team that looked like one of the worst in the league over the first 10 weeks of the season and the one on a three-game win streak.
The biggest change is that the offense has found some explosive plays. The Giants rank ninth with 5.5 yards per play over the past four weeks, while they ranked last with 4.0 yards per play through Week 10. However, the offense's success rate has dropped from 37.6 percent through Week 10 to 35.9 percent over the team's three wins.
Should they consider a qB?
The Giants might have too many wins to force the issue, which could have become a complicated question. But it still should be something to consider. The quarterback play for this team has not been good this season, no matter who has been behind center. Among the 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop-backs this season, the Giants' are ranked 35th (Taylor), 39th (Jones) and 40th (DeVito) by EPA per play.
The performances of Taylor and DeVito have highlighted some of the flaws in Jones’s game, which is not a great thing to say about a quarterback who signed a $40 million per year contract extension in the offseason. The explosive plays in the offense have come from Taylor and DeVito being willing to throw the ball down the field within structure. Jones was just two of 13 on throws of 20 or more air yards. Taylor was seven of 12, and DeVito is currently five of 11.
Last season, the Giants heavily schemed around Jones and allowed him to move the pocket and run, which also made up for a bad offensive line. At the start of this season, it seemed like the Giants were trying to make a point that Jones was worthy of his extension and took many of those guardrails away.
It also didn’t help that the Giants trailed early in most games, which called for more straight drop-backs. That made him more susceptible to pressure, an area where Jones has struggled early in his career. In 2022, just 18.2 percent of pressures on Jones turned into sacks. In 2023, that figure was 31.6 percent.
It’s difficult to sustain an offense with a passer who needs an ideal situation and who hasn’t shown the ability to create big plays on his own with his arm.
What would happen to the incumbent?
The ACL injury would make any conversation about moving on from Jones more difficult. Jones is also guaranteed $36 million in 2024, which complicates any transaction. Releasing him isn’t really on the table.
If he's healthy, it might not be out of the question to trade him to a team looking desperately for a quarterback. The acquiring team would get Jones for three years and $114 million, which comes out to a $38 million per year average.
That’s still a ton of money for a quarterback like Jones, but there are no guarantees after the 2024 season, so there is no long-term commitment. A restructure from the new team is always possible to lower the 2024 figure to make the cap hit more manageable, but that would also push some guaranteed money into 2025.
That might not be an easy sell from the Giants, who could attach a pick to the Jones deal to make it more enticing for another team to take on. Jared Goff had $30.5 million guaranteed remaining on his contract over two seasons when he was considered a salary dump in his trade to Detroit.
That has worked out for the Detroit Lions, but taking that contract off the Rams’ books at the time was considered a favor. Jones has also never shown the upside Goff had in his early years under Sean McVay.
If traded, Jones would leave the Giants with a $33.3 million dead money hit but would also open up $13 million in cap space. That tradeoff could make the Giants more willing to be aggressive in moving on from the deal. New York has a projected $36 million in cap space for 2024 but just 38 players under contract, per Over The Cap.
There’s also the option of Jones staying as a very expensive backup, but there is no guarantee he’d be ready to start the season after his injury.
Without falling into a top-three pick, the Giants would have to love a quarterback to move on from a quarterback who just received an extension. Though that could be on the table, given how this year has gone, with quarterback play being an issue throughout the season.
The most likely scenario is the Giants running it back with Jones for another season and hoping he gets healthy. But a Giants team motivated to get a new quarterback could be one of the most fascinating teams of the offseason.
