NFL Analysis
12/6/23
9 min read
2024 NFL Draft: Where Top QBs Could Land This Year
Bowl season and the college football playoffs are finally here. With that, we continue to inch closer to the 2024 NFL Draft. As you’ve likely heard, this quarterback class has six guys who could be drafted in the first round.
With plenty of teams looking to draft their next franchise quarterback, today we will look at some of the best landing spots for the six potential first-round quarterbacks.
>> READ: Latest 2024 NFL Mock Draft
Caleb Williams, USC
New England Patriots
It’s been interesting to see so many people claim that Caleb Williams and Bill Belichick would not mix well. I’m sure that, at this point in the New England Patriots' season, Belichick would welcome Williams with open arms.
The Patriots have not had a dynamic threat at quarterback in quite some time, and Williams has all the makings to be that caliber of player. He fits the Patriots' offensive archetype as a traditional pocket quarterback. Still, he has more than enough athleticism and arm talent to win outside the pocket as a creator if need be.
Williams' arm strength and ability to rip balls in tight windows in all three levels of the field, on- and off-platform, is one of the many reasons teams and evaluators will have Williams as QB1. Some might have him as one of the highest-graded QBs in the last three to four draft classes.
New England's offense is one of the worst in the NFL from a talent and scheme perspective. Dropping Williams into the mix would immediately give the Patriots a massive upgrade over Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. It would also likely mask some of the schematic concerns that have been an issue since Tom Brady left.
Drake Maye, UNC
Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears currently hold the golden ticket for the first overall pick. They will have the next few months to determine if they will continue building around Justin Fields or trade him and start over with a franchise quarterback.
While the race to be the top quarterback drafted is far from over, it will be a tighter race than in recent classes. If Chicago drafts a new quarterback, UNC's Drake Maye makes more sense to me given how the Bears' offense is run. While Fields has yet to show a consistent ability to win from the pocket with his arm, Chicago values what he can do with his legs a ton. That’s something Maye has done well during his college career.
Maye has 449 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns this season and put up 698 and seven touchdowns in 2022.
As dynamic as Fields is with his legs, to win in today’s game, you must be capable of slinging it with the best of them. Maye is someone who has a much higher ceiling as a passer given his aggressiveness, ball placement and natural arm talent.
The Bears couldn’t go wrong with either Maye or Williams, but if they want to continue to use the quarterback run game in their offense at a high volume, Maye provides more value.
Jayden Daniels, LSU
New York Giants
The Daniel Jones experience has not been a fun one for the New York Giants. The big issue is the Giants elected to pay Jones a rather large contract before the start of the 2023 season. Thankfully, the team is only tied to Jones for one more year before it can get out of his contract without too much of a dead cap hit (22 million dead cap hit in 2025).
With Jones likely sidelined for most (if not all) of the 2024 season after tearing his ACL in Week 8, drafting his replacement with a top-10 draft pick is New York's best option.
Luckily for the Giants, there are multiple options at quarterback who can be drafted outside of the top five. However, none is a better fit for them than LSU quarterback and potential Heisman winner Jayden Daniels.
Daniels is coming off a remarkable year for the Tigers and should be in the driver's seat to win the Heisman. Daniels' ability to win in and outside the pocket with his arm — his dynamic ability to win with his legs in the designed quarterback run game and off-script — has his name rising up boards.
With all his strengths, Daniels must fine-tune his ball placement, anticipation and footwork in the pocket to continue on the upward trajectory he's had since arriving at LSU in 2022.
Giants coach Brian Daboll has plenty of experience working with an athletic, big-armed, big-bodied quarterback; he made a name for himself by developing Josh Allen when he was the offensive coordinator with the Buffalo Bills.
Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Atlanta Falcons
We're unsure if the Atlanta Falcons and Arthur Smith will move on from Desmond Ridder. But after benching Ridder this season, the odds are probably more than 50 percent that Atlanta moves on.
Unfortunately for the Falcons, they will be far out of reach of the top two quarterbacks in this draft, and will likely miss out on QB3, too. That leaves them with two quarterbacks who will be competing in the College Football Playoff — Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy — or Oregon's Bo Nix.
For the Falcons and Smith, Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. makes a ton of sense. He is an accurate, big-armed pocket passer with plenty of athleticism to create out of structure.
Atlanta runs a heavy timing-based, RPO-scheme offense, which is something Penix Jr. has a lot of experience with at Washington over the last two years.
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Las Vegas Raiders
J.J. McCarthy hasn't declared for the draft, but with Michigan the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff, it’s tough to imagine his stock rising higher than it is right now.
McCarthy, like multiple guys listed above him, has struggled with consistency this year. But after two rough games in a row against Penn State and Maryland, he showed up big against Ohio State and Iowa to lead the Wolverines to an undefeated season and the No. 1 playoff seed.
McCarthy is an interesting evaluation because he possesses a lot of the traits teams look for in quarterbacks at the top of the draft. He has a huge arm and the ability to drive throws in all three levels, and he has developed some nice anticipation and touch this season.
McCarthy is also extremely athletic inside and outside the pocket and can be used as a designed rusher in whatever offense he drafted in. For McCarthy, he can fit in in just about any NFL offense, but dropping him into the Las Vegas Raiders with Davante Adams, Jakobi Myers, Michael Mayer and an above-average run game (with or without Josh Jacobs), would be a nice match for both parties.
With less than 700 pass attempts under his belt, McCarthy will likely need time to develop, but his tools and arm talent are an ideal fit for a team looking to draft its quarterback of the future — but not looking to compete for a Super Bowl or playoff spot in 2024. The Raiders fit that bill.
Bo Nix, Oregon
Minnesota Vikings
Bo Nix is one of the more polarizing quarterbacks in this class. More than any quarterback being discussed in the first-round conversation right now, the system he falls into will be vital to his NFL success.
When playing on schedule with some help from a schematic standpoint, Nix can lead a highly efficient offense and make smart decisions with the football. He has consistently taken care of the football, throwing just 26 interceptions in his five years at Oregon and Auburn.
During his two final collegiate seasons at Oregon, Nix has taken some big strides. While a lot of his success can be tied to the Ducks' offensive system, he’s improved multiple areas of his game from his time at Auburn.
Kirk Cousins' contract is up, and he's likely to miss time at the start of the 2024 season. So, Nix's addition in Kevin O’Connell’s offense makes a lot of sense. Nix had plenty of under-center experience at Auburn and Oregon, and we know how much the O’Connell offense likes to operate under-center and use play-action.
Nix likely isn’t the caliber of quarterback right now who can operate without a good offensive play-caller and designer. Still, with O’Connell proving to be one of the league's better offensive coaches — and some dynamic weapons in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson — going to the Vikings would mean Nix would be drafted into a system set up to help him succeed.
The Minnesota Vikings' strong supporting cast and coaching would help him reach his ceiling faster than most places.
