NFL Analysis
1/18/24
5 min read
2024 NFL Divisional Playoffs: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches
Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat.
Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will allow you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.
To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season.
Here’s our look at the divisional round.
Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth-down decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history of matching our model regarding what to do on fourth down over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.
Divisional Round Matchups
Texans vs. Ravens
| Saturday, 4:30 p.m. | |||||||
| Team | Pass | Rush | Rec | Block | Run D | Pass Rush | Pass Cov |
| Texans | 16 | 24 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 9 | 32 |
| Ravens | 6 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 5 | 3 |
Fourth-down decisions: Texans 4th, Ravens 23rd
This is an opening-week rematch. Although, it’s hard to have any major takeaways from the Baltimore Ravens’ 25-9 home victory against the Houston Texans. Neither presumed Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud, nor presumed league MVP Lamar Jackson was quite in the same form back then.
Still, it shouldn't be surprising the Ravens, who had the NFL's best record, are heavily favored regarding full-season Total Points rankings.
According to Total Points, there are two major hurdles the Texans must overcome to topple the No. 1 seed. First, the Texans’ 26th-ranked offensive line matches up poorly against the Ravens’ fifth-ranked pass rush.
Second, there is the Texans’ league-worst pass coverage, which again matches up particularly poorly against a sixth-ranked passing and ninth-ranked receiving offense that diced up two of the top pass coverage teams in the 49ers and the Dolphins towards the end of the regular season.
Even if Stroud can duplicate his excellent performance from the wild card round, this game will be an uphill battle for the Texans if they can’t be successful in these two areas.
Looking at the counting stats from the Week 1 matchup, neither team had a passing touchdown, but the Ravens had three rushing touchdowns, and the Texans had zero. Stroud outpassed Jackson by 73 yards, but we should probably take this stat with a grain of salt, considering it was the season's first game.
Neither of these stats matches the predictions of Total Points. Still, one stat that agrees with the Total Points rankings is sacks: The Baltimore defense had five, and the Texans had four. These are excellent performances that are reflected in the top-10 pass-rush rankings for both teams.
Packers vs. 49ers
| Saturday, 8:15 p.m. | |||||||
| Team | Pass | Rush | Rec | Block | Run D | Pass Rush | Pass Cov |
| Packers | 7 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 27 |
| 49ers | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 7 |
Fourth down decisions: Packers 3rd, 49ers 13th
This is the only matchup of the divisional round that isn’t a regular season rematch. Total Points rankings have both teams as top 10 in blocking and give a slight edge in pass rush to the Green Bay Packers over the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have a much stronger rushing unit, but the Packers have the better run defense.
The biggest matchup disparity is between the 49ers' elite passing and receiving and the Packers’ 27th-ranked pass coverage. This game could get out of hand quickly if the Packers’ defense can't get stops against the best receiving team in the league.
Overall, Total Points unsurprisingly favors the No. 1 seed 49ers, but some of the matchups are a bit closer than you might expect.
Buccaneers vs. Lions
| Sunday, 3 p.m. | |||||||
| Team | Pass | Rush | Rec | Block | Run D | Pass Rush | Pass Cov |
| Buccaneers | 14 | 22 | 8 | 16 | 5 | 20 | 11 |
| Lions | 8 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 12 |
Fourth down decisions: Buccaneers 30th, Lions 9th
These teams played each other in Week 6 when the Detroit Lions got the 20-6 road victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s fair to say that the Buccaneers are playing better than they were back in October, but the full-season Total Points rankings still favor the Lions in this matchup.
The Lions’ sixth-ranked offensive line should have an advantage against the Buccaneers’ 20th-ranked pass rush. On the other side, the Lions’ seventh-ranked pass rush unit could cause problems for the Bucs’ middling blocking unit. The Buccaneers have an edge in run defense, but the Lions are the stronger offensive team.
Looking at the counting stats from these teams’ October matchup, we see some of the same things reflected by Total Points. Jared Goff outpassed Baker Mayfield 353-206 yards.
Chiefs vs. Bills
| Sunday, 6:30 p.m. | |||||||
| Team | Pass | Rush | Rec | Block | Run D | Pass Rush | Pass Cov |
| Chiefs | 5 | 11 | 12 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 8 |
| Bills | 2 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 |
Fourth-down decisions: Chiefs 29th, Bills 4th
This will be the third time in four years these teams face each other in the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs bested the Buffalo Bills in their two most recent playoff meetings, but the Bills got the 20-17 road victory in Week 14.
According to Total Points, both teams have great pass-rush units. While the Bills have elite blocking, the Chiefs are bottom 10 in that category. Both teams have good rushing units, but the Bills have a much better run defense.
The Chiefs have the advantage in receiving, but the Bills are top five in pass coverage, so this matchup is a bit of a toss-up. Overall, Total Points seems to favor the Bills in this meeting — mostly.
Looking back at their Week 14 matchup, many of the counting stats agree with the Total Points rankings. The Bills outrushed the Chiefs by 36 yards and held the Chiefs to 82.
While Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen passed for more than 200 yards each, they were limited to only one passing touchdown and had one interception. Although, Mahomes could have had one more touchdown were it not for an offensive offsides violation by Kadarius Toney.
This article was written by Matthew Lim.
