NFL Analysis

1/11/24

7 min read

2023 NFL Wild-Card Playoffs: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will allow you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Wild Card weekend.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth-down decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history of matching our model regarding what to do on fourth down over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

Wild-Card Matchups

Browns vs. Texans

Fourth-down decisions: Browns 10th, Texans 11th

If we had told you in September the first playoff game this season would be played IN Houston, most would have called us crazy or assumed we were Houston Texans fans. Houston draws the Cleveland Browns, who rode their elite defense to a wild-card berth despite starting five quarterbacks this season. 

The biggest mismatches come from the defensive fronts against the other sides’ offensive lines. Each of these teams is at the top of the league in run defense and total points per play, and they each have top-10 pass rush units. The Browns have a better offensive line to counter, coming in at 19th, while the Texans sit at 26th. 

Both teams have dominant defensive fronts, but the defensive backfields are a different story. While the Browns' pass coverage unit comes in at 17th, Houston’s ranks last. That should allow ample opportunity for Cleveland’s passing game, which found its stride at the end of the season. 

Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Fourth-down decisions: Dolphins 18th, Chiefs 29th

According to our Total Points per Play metrics, the Miami Dolphins hold many advantages and rank in the top six in all categories except one, including their league-leading offensive line and pass rush units.

While Miami’s pass rush unit graded as the best throughout the season, injuries have devastated its defense, specifically edge rushers. That could hinder its ability to take advantage of the Kansas City Chiefs’ suspect offensive tackles and put pressure on Patrick Mahomes. 

While both teams have top pass games and pass defenses by Total Points per play, there is the potential for some mismatches to be exploited on the ground. The Chiefs have a respectable run game while the Dolphins have a middle-of-the-pack run defense, but the mismatch comes with the Dolphins finishing the regular season ranked fourth in rushing while the Kansas City defense finished 22nd in run defense. 

Steelers vs. Bills

Fourth-down decisions: Steelers 30th, Bills 3rd

The Buffalo Bills ended the season on an incredible hot streak to not only make it into the playoffs but also steal the AFC East crown. They will host the Pittsburgh Steelers this Sunday, who lost star edge rusher T.J. Watt in a must-win game last week. 

The biggest mismatches in this game come through the air, where Buffalo holds the advantage on both sides of the ball. The Bills have the second-best pass attack by Total Points Per Play behind QB Josh Allen, while the Steelers’ pass coverage unit comes in at 14th. Buffalo also sports the fourth-ranked pass coverage unit, and the Steelers come in at a paltry 24th when it comes to passing the ball. 

The Pittsburgh offense has been better in recent weeks after Mason Rudolph took over at QB. Still, he has a tough task against this Bills defense that has overcome significant injuries to field a solid unit. 

Both teams have pass rush units that rank in the Top 10 in the NFL. However, the Steelers’ aforementioned loss of their best player, Watt, combined with the Bills having the second-best offensive line by Total Points Per Play gives Buffalo another advantage. They should have an easier time keeping Allen clean.

The deck seems to be stacked against Pittsburgh, but this team has proven it can't be counted out. 

Packers vs. Cowboys

Fourth-down decisions: Packers 2nd, Cowboys 9th

The Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East crown this season and are rewarded with a home game, where they have been dominant all season. The Green Bay Packers are a young team that overcame a lot this offseason and in the early weeks to rally from a 3-6 start. 

The most stark mismatch comes with the Cowboys’ passing offense against the Packers’ defensive backfield. Dallas ranks first in passing and ninth in receiving Total Points per game, while the Green Bay pass coverage unit tips the scales at 27th. 

These two teams are pretty evenly matched in most other areas, but the Cowboys lead the league in home points per game and are an absolute juggernaut at AT&T Stadium. 

Rams vs. Lions

Fourth-down decisions: Rams 12th, Lions 6th

In one of these playoff's best storylines, Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit in the Detroit Lions’ first playoff game since he was their quarterback. It's also the Lions' first home playoff game since 1994. 

The Lions appear to have the edge in multiple areas, especially on offense. Detroit finished the regular season ranked in the top 10 in every offensive category. Its biggest advantages come in the form of its third-ranked receiving corps and sixth-ranked offensive line against a Los Angeles Rams defense that comes in ranked 21st at rushing the passer and 19th in pass coverage. 

Despite the Lions’ advantages on paper, the Rams overcame a 3-6 start to claw into the playoffs as their offense massively hit its stride. Stafford is playing incredible football during the season's second half. Also, their run game returned to elite status after the return of surprise star Kyren Williams. 

Although the Lions have home-field advantage and the edge on paper, this game should be fiercely competitive from start to finish and will be can’t-miss football. 

Eagles vs. Buccaneers

Fourth-down decisions: Eagles 1st, Bucs 26th

After finishing last year as the league’s runner-up and starting the season 10-1, the Philadelphia Eagles stumbled brutally to finish the season at 11-6. The Eagles’ offense continues to be led by their elite offensive line, which should allow Jalen Hurts plenty of time to throw the ball against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pass rush that ranked 20th this season.

The Buccaneers’ offense will have lots of opportunities to move the ball against an Eagles defense that is among the league’s worst during this poor stretch. 

Philadelphia's defense ranks 24th against the run, 18th at rushing the passer and 25th in pass coverage. The Buccaneers' offensive line and run game have been mediocre overall. Still, this matchup should allow the Buccaneers' offense a chance to be productive through the air with Baker Mayfield and the talented WR duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Tampa Bay gets home-field advantage in the last game of the wild-card round in what appears to be a toss-up between one team that is reeling and another that is peaking. 

This article was written by Jeremy Percy.

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Sports Info Solutions

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