Analysis
9/30/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 4 DFS Top Plays
Every week, our DFS team releases their favorite plays for the main slate on DraftKings. These plays will be geared towards the DraftKings’ Milly Maker tournament.
Chalk plays are guys we expect to have high rostership. They will be popular in our competitors’ lineups. Playing chalk in DFS is fine; however, you will want pieces of your lineup to be an outlier play to separate yourself from the field.
If 50 percent of your opponents start Christian McCaffrey in the running back slot, and he gives you only 12 fantasy points, the 50 percent of lineups without the expensive landmine of McCaffrey get an immediate boost.
An outlier player is someone who is not popular — usually around five percent or fewer lineups will have this type of player. If only three percent of the field plays Darius Slayton in a wide receiver slot, and he scores 18 points, then you have an edge on about 97 percent of the field with Slayton.
A value is any cheap player we expect to have a solid game. These players are usually relatively popular but help you play the studs. A textbook value example would be a moderately popular TE for $2,700 that scores 11 fantasy points.
A ceiling play type will be expected to produce one of their highest outputs in the given matchup. An example is Ja’Marr Chase; at more than $8,000 in salary, we want to play Chase in the games where his output is north of 25 or 30 DraftKings points, not when he will score 18.
>> More DFS: Main Slate Tournament | How to Handle Chalk
We’ll review DFS Showdown strategy before every island game in our free Discord. We’re also dropping player prop bets in there with write-ups throughout the week and will answer fantasy start-sit questions, too.
Top Week 4 DFS Plays
Quarterbacks
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | $7,800 | Medium | Ceiling |
| Anthony Richardson | $6,700 | Medium | Ceiling |
| Russell Wilson | $5,800 | High | Chalk Value |
| Matthew Stafford | $5,700 | Medium | Value |
| Bryce Young | $5,200 | Low | Outlier Value |
| Aidan O'Connell | $4,000 | Medium | Value |
Running Backs
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,200 | Medium | Ceiling |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,100 | Medium | Ceiling |
| Derrick Henry | $7,000 | Low | Ceiling |
| James Cook | $6,300 | Medium | Value |
| Alvin Kamara | $6,100 | Low | Outlier |
| D’Andre Swift | $5,700 | Medium | Value |
| Joshua Kelley | $5,300 | Medium | Value |
Wide Receivers
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | $9,600 | Low | Ceiling |
| Davante Adams | $8,000 | High | Chalk |
| Keenan Allen | $7,900 | High | Chalk |
| Puka Nacua | $6,700 | High | Chalk |
| Jerry Jeudy | $6,600 | Low | Outlier |
| Tutu Atwell | $5,500 | Medium | Value |
| Courtland Sutton | $5,300 | Medium | Value |
| Adam Thielen | $4,500 | High | Chalk Value |
| Joshua Palmer | $4,000 | High | Value |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | $3,900 | Low | Outlier |
Tight Ends
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | $5,400 | Medium | Value |
| George Kittle | $5,100 | Low | Outlier |
| Pat Freiermuth | $3,400 | High | Chalk Value |
| Logan Thomas | $3,100 | Low | Outlier |
Defenses
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | $4,100 | High | Chalk |
| Patriots | $3,000 | Low | Outlier |
| Browns | $2,800 | High | Chalk |
Follow Our DFS Team
Jordan Vanek: @JordanVanekDFS
Josh Larky: @JLarkyTweets
Ryan Reynolds: @RyanReynoldsNFL
Mark Garcia: @HilowFF
