Analysis

9/14/23

8 min read

2023 NFL Week 2 Matchups: Ranks by Total Points, 4th Down Decisions

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will allow you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 2.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth Down Decision ranks are based on the head coach’s history over the last two seasons.

Week 2 Matchups

Packers vs. Falcons

After one week, Jordan Love has the Green Bay Packers ranked third in Passing Total Points Per Play, and Jessie Bates has the Atlanta Falcons fourth in Pass Coverage. Unfortunately for them, they don’t face the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers every week, so it will be interesting to see which unit has the upper hand. 

Look out for Matt LaFleur’s aggressive fourth down play calling to play a role in this matchup.

Raiders vs. Bills

In order for the Buffalo Bills to avoid a 0-2 start, they will have to count on Josh Allen to flip the script on Jimmy Garoppolo, who performed efficiently against the Denver Broncos in Week 1.

With the Bills' passers ranked 24th and the Las Vegas Raiders ranked second, expect some regression to the mean for these quarterbacks.

Ravens vs. Bengals

Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Co. are last in Receiving Total Points Per Play, just like we all expected. Joe Burrow will hope for some better weather for passing than he saw last week because the Baltimore Ravens run defense had the third-best day of any team.

Seahawks vs. Lions

We love Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness in converting a fake punt from deep in his own territory. However, he has generally been middle of the road in terms of maximizing his win probability on fourth-down decisions in the last two years.

Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks were out-gained 426 to 180 against the Rams, so they have more concerns about the first three downs for the time being, especially on defense, where their pass rush was worst in the NFL in Week 1.

Colts vs. Texans

While we’ll spare the rookie head coaches from receiving a ranking until they have a larger sample size, the rookie quarterbacks can’t avoid our scrutiny. Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud would both love to get some more efficiency from their run games. They got little to nothing in Week 1.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars

While both Andy Reid and Doug Peterson have great reputations as coaches, their surprising spots in these rankings are specific to their handling of fourth downs. Even when you have Patrick Mahomes, going for it on fourth-and-25 should only happen when there is no other reasonable option.

Bears vs. Buccaneers

Despite the MVP bets that came in for Justin Fields in the preseason, his Week 1 performance was not nearly as efficient as that of Baker Mayfield, who wasn’t even on the board to win MVP. Mayfield had one of the better days of any quarterback in Week 1 by our measures. Two games against the NFC North to start the season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a nice way to start your rebuild.

Chargers vs. Titans

Ryan Tannehill completed less than 50 percent of his passes and threw three interceptions last week against the New Orleans Saints. The Los Angeles Chargers' pass defense gave up 466 yards to Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. Something’s got to give. And the Tennessee Titans’ pass coverage ranking last in Week 1 doesn’t bode well against a Justin Herbert-led team.

Giants vs. Cardinals

While there is nothing positive to say about the New York Giants’ performance on Sunday night, the Arizona Cardinals showed signs of life defensively, albeit against the Washington Commanders. Still, Arizona’s defense did not look like that of a 3.5-win team, as it was projected for in the preseason. The pass coverage and pass rush both ranked in the top five for Week 1.

49ers vs. Rams

The San Francisco 49ers looked like every bit of the Super Bowl contender that we expected, and the Los Angeles Rams showed some surprising spunk. Both teams entered the season with some level of health concerns at quarterback, but Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford both were in good form in Week 1. Things will get tougher for Stafford this week. He's going up against the top pass coverage group in the league so far.

Jets vs. Cowboys

Both of these teams came into the season with high expectations. Both of these teams won the first game of the season at MetLife Stadium. That is where the similarities end. The Dallas Cowboys’ offensive line blocked the best of anyone in Week 1. And their pass coverage ranked second. That’s gonna be tough for the New York Jets to handle.

Commanders vs. Broncos

All eyes are on Sam Howell and Russell Wilson, who need to perform well in 2023 to secure their futures. Howell outgained Wilson in Week 1, but Wilson was more efficient as he fit into the Sean Payton offense. Speaking of Payton, these teams are mismatched in terms of how aggressively they approach decision-making. The days of Riverboat Ron were a long time ago.

Dolphins vs. Patriots

The Dolphins' offense is the talk of the league, but their run defense (worst in the NFL in Week 1) is a major concern that will have Bill Belichick salivating. The Patriots' defense had a solid performance against the Eagles’ powerful offense, and it will be interesting to see how they perform against the pass-heavy Dolphins.

Saints vs. Panthers

It was an excellent start to the Derek Carr era in New Orleans and an uneven start to the Bryce Young era in Carolina. After one week, the Panthers rank bottom-three in passing and rushing. One thing to look out for is the coaching matchup: Frank Reich is aggressive on fourth downs, while Dennis Allen is among the most conservative.

Browns vs. Steelers

This is another Monday night matchup where the game management styles are at odds. The Moneyball Browns seek to maximize their expected value on every decision they make, while Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers prefer to stay in the game and trust their defense. Can the Browns match a Week 1 effort in which their run defense ranked No. 1 and their pass rush ranked No. 2?

This article was authored by Matt Manocherian.

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Sports Info Solutions

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