Analysis
9/14/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 2 Betting Preview: New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys
Jets (1-0) at Cowboys (1-0)
Spread: Cowboys -9
Total: 39
Weather: Retractable roof, no concerns
Line Report
Before the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills kicked off, the early line for this contest was Dallas Cowboys -3.5. After Aaron Rodgers’ injury, some sportsbooks opened at Jets -7.5, and that quickly jumped to Jets -9.5. Just before this writing, the spread fell back down to Jets -9.
The total for this contest has undergone similar line movements due to Rodgers’ injury. Leading into Monday Night Football, the total for this contest sat at either 45 or 45.5 among sportsbooks. After the injury, it reopened at 41.5 and has since been gradually driven down to its current mark of 39.
Cowboys Offense vs. Jets Defense
It’s hard to extrapolate Week 1 specifics for the Dallas offense because its game against the Giants was more or less in the bag early. The Cowboys have one of the most well-rounded offensive rosters in the league. They have a premium offensive line, a strong run game, a complete group of wide receivers and a top-10 quarterback in Dak Prescott.
Tony Pollard led the Cowboys backfield with 14 carries and three targets. Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn supplemented the run game with six carries each. Tight end Jake Ferguson actually led Dallas in targets with seven, while CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks each had four.
Dallas hosts a Jets defense that just held Josh Allen’s Bills to 16 points while forcing two fumbles and three interceptions and sacking Allen five times. The only vulnerability New York’s defense had last year was against tight ends, giving up the sixth-most yards to the position.
Jets Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
We saw the Cowboys defense dismantle the New York Giants last Sunday night. It will have a similar, game-derailing pass rush advantage against the Jets’ offensive line.
Garrett Wilson is a premium wide receiver who performed well with multiple quarterbacks last season. Unfortunately, he averaged 8.6 PPR points per game with Zach Wilson and 17.2 with everyone else. Dallas has one of — if not the — best cornerback duos in football. Between Zach Wilson’s inefficiency and the Cowboys' elite pass rush and secondary, this is a brutal matchup for all Jets pass catchers.
Breece Hall was incredible in his return from injury as he ran for 127 yards on 10 carries against Buffalo. Hall exceeded 100 rushing yards on his second carry of the game. With Rodgers out for the season, the Jets need to lean on Hall and veteran Dalvin Cook even more.
What You’re Betting On
If you’re betting on Dallas, you are building that wager around its defense dominating this game. The Cowboys’ pass rush could potentially derail this contest, much like it did against the Giants last week. Dallas doesn’t need a great game offensively, as the Jets have their own premium defense. However, because the Cowboys need to win by distance to cover, you’re betting on them scoring 20 points or more in this matchup. Otherwise, you essentially need a second shutout in as many weeks. That’s possible in this matchup, but it shouldn’t be an expectation.
If you’re betting on the Jets, you're building that bet around their high-end defense keeping this game close. They have the raw materials to do that, but their offense could be a genuine liability against Dallas. Zach Wilson played reasonably well in a tough spot against a talented Bills team last week, but he only threw for 140 yards. Hall was the star of the Jets’ offense on opening day, and the team will have to lean on him even more now.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 17, Jets 10
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 2-3
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 2-1
Ryan Reynolds is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow him @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
