Analysis
11/9/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 10 Betting Preview: New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders
Jets (4-4) at Raiders (4-5)
Spread: Raiders +1
Total: 36
Weather: Dome game
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has moved from Raiders +1.5 to Raiders +1, but the total has stayed at 36 points.
Raiders Offense vs. the Jets Defense
The Las Vegas Raiders’ new coaching staff has one game with rookie Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. The Raiders beat the New York Giants easily, but they clearly had a run-centric game plan with 25 pass attempts to 34 carries. We should expect more of the same with O’Connell under center.
Davante Adams led the team last week with seven targets, while Jakobi Meyers was second with five. Tre Tucker led the team in receiving yards against New York with 52, although 50 came on one play. The New York Jets allow the fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers. New York’s pass rush will also have a trench advantage in this matchup.
The Jets have an elite pass defense, but they have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards and the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs per game. Josh Jacobs had 98 rushing yards and two scores on 26 carries last week. Jacobs wasn’t targeted against the Giants, but he’s second among running backs in targets on the season.
Jets Offense vs. Raiders Defense
Zach Wilson and the offense are among the least effective in the sport. He took eight sacks last Monday night against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Raiders don’t have the edge duo that the Chargers do, but Maxx Crosby is one of the best in the business. He’ll have a major advantage in this contest.
Garrett Wilson leads the Jets’ pass catchers in every major category by a wide margin. TE Tyler Conklin is second on the team in receptions and receiving yards. Allen Lazard is third in most categories, but he’s tied with Conklin for second in targets. The Raiders have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers, and they’ve been solid against tight ends.
Las Vegas is giving up the third-most rushing yards per game to running backs. Breece Hall has the 15th-most rushing yards per game this season. Hall has at least 12 carries in each of his last four games, but he’s only exceeded 50 rushing yards once over that span.
Keep in mind Hall’s two big games this season involved a 72- and 83-yard run, respectively. New York’s running game has been ineffective otherwise, primarily because of its non-threatening passing attack.
What You’re Betting On
If you’re betting on the Raiders, it's on two core concepts. The first is they can lean on Jacobs early and often. The Raiders are in trouble if O’Connell has to play from behind against the Jets’ pass defense. Your other angle as a Raiders’ bettor is betting directly against Zach Wilson.
The Raiders are flying high after beating the worst team in football last week, perhaps a little too high. If you betting on the Jets, you build it around their defense dominating this contest. That’s a reasonable expectation as long as their offense doesn’t make any game-breaking mistakes. If you’re a Jets bettor, you hope that New York tries to lean more on its running game than in recent weeks.
Score Prediction: Jets 17, Raiders 9
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 24-21
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 18-15
Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Ryan has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
