Analysis
9/9/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 1 DFS Top Plays
Every week, our DFS team releases their favorite plays for the main slate on DraftKings. These plays will be geared towards the Milly Maker tournament on DraftKings.
Chalk plays are guys we expect to have high rostership, where they will be very popular in our competitors’ lineups. Playing chalk in DFS is fine; however, you will want pieces of your lineup to be an outlier play to separate yourself from the field.
If 50 percent of your opponents start Christian McCaffrey in the running back slot and he gives you only 12 fantasy points, the 50 percent of lineups without the very expensive landmine of McCaffrey get an immediate boost.
An outlier player will be somebody who is not popular — usually, around five percent or fewer lineups will have this type of player. If only three percent of the field plays Darius Slayton in a wide receiver slot, and he scores 18 points, then you have an edge on about 97 percent of the field if you played Slayton.
A value is any cheap player we expect to have a solid game. These players are usually relatively popular but help you play the studs. A textbook value example would be a moderately popular tight end for $2,700 that scores 11 fantasy points.
A ceiling play type will be expected to produce one of their highest outputs in the given matchup. An example of this is Ja’Marr Chase. At more than $8,000 in salary, we want to play Chase in the games where his output is north of 25 or 30 DraftKings points, not when he will score 18.
MORE DFS: How to Handle Week 1 Chalk in DFS | Week 1 DFS Main Slate Strategy
We’ll review DFS Showdown strategy before every island game in our free Discord. We’re also dropping player prop bets in there with write-ups throughout the week and will answer fantasy start-sit questions, too.
Quarterbacks
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $8,000 | Low | Outlier |
| Jalen Hurts | $7,800 | High | Chalk |
| Joe Burrow | $7,100 | Low | Outlier |
| Anthony Richardson | $5,600 | High | Value |
| Derek Carr | $5,300 | Low | Value Outlier |
Running Backs
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | $8,200 | Low | Outlier |
| Derrick Henry | $7,800 | Medium | Ceiling |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $7,000 | Low | Outlier |
| Travis Etienne | $6,900 | Low | Outlier |
| JK Dobbins | $6,600 | Low | Ceiling |
| Aaron Jones | $6,300 | High | Chalk |
| Raheem Mostert | $5,400 | High | Chalk Value |
| Brian Robinson | $5,100 | High | Chalk Value |
| Deon Jackson | $4,100 | High | Chalk Value |
Wide Receivers
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | $8,800 | High | Ceiling |
| Ja’Marr Chase | $8,100 | High | Ceiling |
| A.J. Brown | $7,600 | Low | Value |
| DK Metcalf | $7,000 | Medium | Ceiling |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,700 | Medium | Ceiling |
| Calvin Ridley | $6,500 | Medium | Value |
| Chris Olave | $6,500 | Medium | Value |
| Mike Evans | $6,300 | Low | Outlier |
| Amari Cooper | $5,800 | Medium | Value |
| Mike Williams | $5,700 | High | Chalk Value |
| Zay Flowers | $4,000 | Low | Value |
| Alec Pierce | $3,800 | Low | Outlier |
| Marvin Mims | $3,000 | High | Value |
| Tutu Atwell | $3,000 | Medium | Value |
Tight Ends
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | $4,800 | High | Chalk |
| Gerald Everett | $4,300 | Low | Outlier |
| Pat Freiermuth | $4,100 | Low | Outlier |
| Juwan Johnson | $3,900 | Low | Value |
| Isaiah Likely | $3,000 | High | Chalk Value |
| Luke Musgrave | $2,900 | High | Chalk Value |
Defenses
| Name | Price | Expected Rostership | Play Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | $4,000 | Low | Ceiling |
| Seahawks | $3,300 | Low | Ceiling |
| Falcons | $3,200 | Low | Outlier |
| Chargers | $3.100 | Low | Outlier |
| Steelers | $3,000 | Low | Outlier |
| Commanders | $2,800 | High | Chalk |
| Packers | $2,800 | Low | Outlier |
| Dolphins | $2,500 | Low | Value |
| Raiders | $2,300 | Medium | Value |
Follow our DFS Team
Jordan Vanek: @JordanVanekDFS
Josh Larky: @JLarkyTweets
Ryan Reynolds: @RyanReynoldsNFL
Mark Garcia: @HilowFF
