Analysis
10/26/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Trade Deadline: Why a Brian Burns Trade Is Worth Considering
The Carolina Panthers did not seem like a franchise going into rebuild mode when looking at all of the moves the franchise made during the past year.
They fired coach Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start last season. Interim coach Steve Wilks went 6-6, and the Panthers were in playoff contention at the end of the 2022 season. After the season, Carolina moved on from Wilks and hired Frank Reich, whom the Indianapolis Colts had fired midway through last season.
The Panthers were aggressive in free agency as well. They signed veterans like WR Adam Thielen, WR DJ Chark, TE Hayden Hurst, RB Miles Sanders, safeties Vonn Bell and Xavier Woods, DL Shy Tuttle and QB Andy Dalton.
Carolina also made a seismic trade with the Chicago Bears for the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and selected QB Bryce Young. They sent WR DJ Moore, first-round picks in 2023 (ninth overall) and 2024, and second-round picks in 2023 (61st overall) and 2025 to the Bears.
Things have not gone as planned, however. The Panthers started 0-6, making them the NFL's only team without a win entering Week 8. With the trade deadline approaching, they have some difficult moves to consider.
Should Panthers Make Another Major Move?
The Panthers only have six selections in the 2024 draft — their second-, third- and fourth-round picks, fifths from Tennessee and San Francisco, and Arizona's sixth. So the Panthers' thought process may have changed.
If they want to replenish their draft capital their most valuable asset is edge rusher Brian Burns. Burns earned Pro Bowl honors in the past two seasons and had a career-high 12.5 sacks in 2022. He is a young (25), dynamic pass rusher who would be highly sought after, and net a bevy of draft picks should Carolina decide to move him.
The Panthers reportedly turned down an offer from the Los Angeles Rams of first-round picks in 2024 and 2025 plus a future third-round pick at the 2022 trade deadline. If they rebuffed that type of draft compensation, they had to feel Burns was going to be a critical piece of their organization moving forward.
Assuming the Panthers did turn down that amount of compensation, their No. 1 priority in the offseason should have been a long-term contract extension for Burns.
However, the sides couldn't reach an agreement, and Burns is playing on his fifth-year option on his rookie deal. I doubt they will get the type of draft compensation they reportedly were offered at this point because Burns will hit the UFA market in March unless the Panthers franchise tag him.
Burns' Best Fit?
If the Panthers were to trade Burns, where is a logical fit?
The Detroit Lions are 5-2 and atop the NFC North. They have put themselves in a position to win a division title and possibly make a deep playoff run. GM Brad Holmes has done an excellent job slowly and methodically putting this roster together over the past couple of years.
In today's NFL, when you have a roster ready to compete now, which the Lions do, an aggressive trade could be the move that puts them on the same level as the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys.
Detroit could use help at wide receiver and in the secondary, but adding another premier pass rusher to pair with Aidan Hutchinson would have a major impact on a defense that has shown drastic improvement from last year.
Can Lions Afford Burns' Contract?
Detroit would have to get creative to make Burns' contract work within their salary cap, but it also should try to sign him to a long-term extension. Hutchinson is only in the second year of his rookie contract, which would give them some flexibility.
Burns' fifth-year option pays him a little more than $16 million. If he was traded this week, the Lions would be responsible for 11/18ths of his salary or $9.785 million. The Lions have $6.752 million of cap space so trading for Burns would put them about $3.033 million over the cap.
On the surface, Detroit can't afford him, however, there are creative ways they could.
- The Lions could include a player in the trade to minimize the hit from Burns' contract.
- They could convert Burns' or other existing salaries into signing bonuses.
- They could cut a player or players to create cap space.
- Or they could negotiate with the Panthers to take on more of Burns' salary in the trade depending on the compensation.
What Would Compensation Be?
Trades of edge rushers at different stages of their careers during the past two seasons provided some context for what a potential Burns trade could yield.
In 2021, the Denver Broncos traded Von Miller (then 32 but also a three-time All-Pro and eight-time Pro Bowler) to the Rams for a 2022 second-round pick (No. 64 overall — LB Nik Bonitto) and a 2022 third-round pick (No. 96 overall, traded to Indianapolis).
In 2022, the Broncos dealt another edge, Bradley Chubb (then 26 and in a season that would finish with his second Pro Bowl selection) to the Miami Dolphins. Chubb, like Burns, was playing under his fifth-year option.
The Broncos recouped a first-round pick in 2023 (No. 29, which was traded to New Orleans for the right to hire coach Sean Payton and became DL Bryan Bresee), a 2024 fourth-round pick and RB Chase Edmonds. Denver also sent a 2025 fifth-round pick to the Dolphins
Why This Deal Makes Sense
A Lions trade for Burns would be a win-win for both clubs. By all accounts, Burns would fit the culture that coach Dan Campbell and Holmes have built. To my knowledge, Burns has high character off the field and is a passionate football player on it.
Carolina, meanwhile, has 16 upcoming UFAs, including Burns, they must decide what to do with. Acquiring more draft capital would help the Panthers further build around their young franchise quarterback.
Adding Burns could be the move that takes the Lions to the next level. It's a win for both teams.
Rick Spielman is a former general manager of the Dolphins and Vikings, and winner of the NFL Executive of the Year award by Pro Football Weekly in 2017. Follow him on Twitter @spielman_rick
