Betting
10/15/22
6 min read
Week 6 Main Slate Player Props
Thursday night was good again for us, as we went 3-2. If the Commanders had been able to run the clock out after the two-minute warning, we would have been 4-1. We continue our winning ways into the main slate of Week 6 with a 34-29-2 record. In addition to quite a few Steelers player props, I have also started including a confidence level rating for all of my plays, with a suggested pick-2 of player props listed after all of the write-ups. Without further ado, let's get to the plays!
George Kittle OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards
The Atlanta Falcons currently give up the third-most yards and second-most targets and completions to tight ends. Kittle has disappointed this season but is still running a decent number of routes since coming off of his injury at the beginning of the season. Luckily, he gets the team this week that he had 6 receptions for 93 yards against last year. I am hesitantly optimistic for this play. It all just makes sense, but Kittle and the 49ers' offense has been disappointing this season, so I wouldn't play this much higher. I would rate it 3/5 for confidence.
Tyler Lockett OVER 14.5 Fantasy Points
Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have seen drastically different usage based on the type of coverage they are seeing. Lockett is the dominant receiver when they play against zone, getting a 27.9% target share. In man coverage, it is the D.K. Metcalf show, as he is currently seeing 43.6% of targets in that type of coverage. Arizona has played zone coverage 71.3% of the time this season, which ranks them 12th overall. This is more of lean than a high confidence play, so I would give it a 3/5 and would not play it any higher if it moves.
Najee Harris UNDER 12.5 Receiving Yards
Najee Harris' snap share is going in the wrong direction this season. In the last two games, he has the lead over Jaylen Warren in the amount of snaps played with 78, compared to 54 for Warren. The worrying part for Harris is when you compare him and Warren in the receiving game. Warren has more of every one of these statistics: routes, targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Even if you disregard when the Steelers were getting blown out by the Bills last week and only look at when the Steelers were down 7 points or less, Warren still leads in all those categories over the last two games.
In addition to Harris’ worrisome usage in the passing game, the Buccaneers have been the best team in the league defensively against running backs in the receiving game. No team has had a pass play longer than 10 yards to a running back against the Bucs, and no team has had more than 17 receiving yards to their running backs in a game this season. This is a scary play; playing a line that is so low is terrifying, and I wouldn’t play it any lower. However, I would rate it 4/5 for confidence.
Jeff Wilson OVER 15.5 Rush Attempts
This one is fairly simple. In wins this season, Jeff Wilson averages 17.7 rushes per game, including 10.3 in the second half. In losses, Jeff Wilson averages 10.5 rushes per game. The 49ers are currently 5-point favorites. The only variable that makes me worried about this prop is Tevin Coleman possibly seeing more playing time. I would give it a confidence rating of 4/5 and would still play it if it hits 16.0 but would not play it higher.
Josh Allen OVER 46.5 Rushing Yards
I took the under on this play last week because it looked like the Bills were going to handedly beat the Steelers. This week, they go to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in a game that will likely be one of the best games of the season. In the two games the Bills and Chiefs played last season, Allen had 11 rush attempts in each with 59 and 68 rushing yards in each respective game. Also, in games with more than a 50-point total since the beginning of last season, Josh Allen averaged 10.3 rushing attempts and 63.1 rushing yards per game. Sunday’s game currently has a total of 54. This line has already moved significantly, since it was posted at 41.5, but I would even play it higher. I give this play a confidence level of 4/5, and I would stop betting the over at 50.5.
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Marquise Brown OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards
Hollywood has been very productive as Kyler Murray’s WR1 during DeAndre Hopkins’ suspension. He has averaged a 26.6% target share and 83.4 receiving yards per game and now is playing against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Seattle gives up nearly 260 passing yards per game and has the third-worst defensive pass EPA per play, per TruMedia. I had this as a play earlier in the week at 70.5 receiving yards and am happy to see it went down by 3 yards to give us some more wiggle room. I would play this up to 75.5 receiving yards. It is one of my most confident plays of the week, giving it a confidence level of 5/5.
George Pickens OVER 10.5 Fantasy Points
In the 6 quarters that Kenny Pickett has been the quarterback for the Steelers, he has targeted Pickens 12 times for 10 receptions and 151 receiving yards. The connection between these two is there, and in a game that is likely to be another blowout, the Steelers will have to pass a lot. High pass volume, combined with a connection with Pickett, leads me to think that this line is way too low. If Pickens can be the first Steelers wide receiver to score a touchdown this season, then this prop line will not stand a chance. That makes this prop one of my favorite props for the week and a 5/5 for confidence.
Kenny Pickett OVER 22 Completions
Pickett had 34 completions on 52 pass attempts against the Bills last week in a massive blowout. The Steelers are 9.5 point underdogs, which I think is actually low, considering the massive amount of injuries the Steelers are dealing with on defense. This play feels very simple, so I give it a 6/5 for confidence and would play it to 26 completions.
Suggested Pick-2
Two of my most confident plays of the week are both on the Steelers, so they cannot be paired together. Instead, here are the two I would pair together that I think gives you the best chance of a win:
- Marquise Brown OVER 67.5 receiving yards and Kenny Pickett OVER 22.0 completions
WATCH MORE: Josh Larky, Ben Wolbransky, and Ryan Reynolds fire up their Player Prop Happy Hour for Week 6.
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