Betting
9/24/22
5 min read
Six Player Props for Week 3
The start of Week 3 has been good for props as we went 2-1 on Thursday night and were a Kareem Hunt drop away from 3-0. A large part of the success from Thursday night was looking at coverage data, so you will see that type of analysis a lot in this week’s props. With two weeks worth of data from the NFL, we can also start to find trends to exploit. Due to that, I will find more props I like as we get into the season. As always, props are listed in the order in which I like them, with my favorite play listed last. In addition to my favorite props, I have added a few of my other favorite props at the end that didn’t make the cut to be written up, but I will still be playing them.
Brandon McManus OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made
Nathaniel Hackett has already proven himself to be an extremely conservative coach regarding 4th down decision-making. That itself makes this a great play. The struggling Denver offense, combined with a stout 49ers defense that has only allowed 67.5 rushing yards through two games, means the Denver offense will be struggling to complete drives with a touchdown and have to settle for field goals. Combine that with the game being at home in kick-friendly Denver, where McManus averages two field goal attempts a game over his entire career. I would not play this if it moves to 2.0, though.
Miles Sanders OVER 60.5 Rush yards
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The Washington Commanders are giving up the 5th most rushing yards per game through 2 games. The Eagles are averaging the most rushing yards per game. While a large chunk of those rush yards are coming from Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders currently has 67% of the running back rush attempts for the Eagles. He is also seeing significant usage and is averaging 15 rushes per game. Based on his usage so far and being matched up against a bad rush defense, I love this over and will play it until 69.5 rush yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 9.0 Fantasy Points
Week 1 was the only week we’ve seen this New England offense in a negative game script. When the Patriots were down by at least a touchdown, Ty Montgomery went to work. He ran 9 of his 11 routes and had 3 of his 4 targets when the Patriots were down at least 7 points. Ty Montgomery is now on IR, and Stevenson seems to be benefiting from Montgomery’s absence as his number of routes run more than quadrupled from 5 in Week 1 to 21 in Week 2.
PrizePicks does not currently have receptions or yards receiving posted for Stevenson, so we are forced to play his fantasy points prop if we want to take advantage of his increase in receiving work and the probable negative game script versus the Ravens. If his receptions are posted, I would play them confidently over 3.5. I will not be playing his fantasy points if it moves much more, though, not playing if it gets any higher than 10 fantasy points.
Travis Kelce OVER 71.5 Yards Receiving
Tight Ends have been feasting against the Colts so far. In Week 1, O.J. Howard had 2 targets for 2 receptions, 38 yards receiving, and 2 touchdowns. Evan Engram followed that performance up in week 2 with 8 targets, 7 receptions, and 46 receiving yards. Looking at the defensive coverages that Kelce will face, the Colts have run Cover-3 at one of the highest rates of any team this season. In 2021, only 25% of Kelce’s routes came against cover-3, but 31% of his yards came against cover-3. I expect another big game from Kelce and would play this over until 80.5 rec yards.
Davante Adams OVER 80.5 Yards Receiving
Adams has had two completely different weeks. In Week 1, he had 10 receptions for 141 yards. In Week 2, he had 2 receptions for 12 yards. The Chargers ran a Cover-3 defense on 37.5% of their snaps in Week 1. Adams had 8 targets for 6 receptions for 100 yards against that coverage. In Week 2, the Cardinals ran a cover-3 defense 23% of the time, and Adams had 3 targets for no receptions and no yards against that coverage. Tennessee, Las Vegas’s opponent, has run cover-3 35.8% of the time in their two games this season. Assuming the Titans run a cover-3 over 30%, I see Adams tearing apart the same defensive scheme he dominated in Week 1. I would play this over until 89.5 yards receiving.
Austin Hooper OVER 23.5 Yards Receiving
Another TE and another great coverage matchup. Hooper is playing the Raiders, who gave up 8 receptions for 75 yards to Zach Ertz. The middle of the field has been open for the Raiders, and Ertz had 6 of his receptions and 57 of his yards from the slot. Austin Hooper comes into this game with the most slot snaps for the Titans with 23, 4 more than rookie Kyle Phillips. Kyle Phillips is looking to be doubtful for Sunday, so Hooper could get even more of the snaps out of the slot. I think this is a great play, and I will be playing it over until 34.5 rec yards.
Week 3 Player Props: Honorable Mentions
Travis Etienne OVER 16.5 yards receiving
Chris Olave OVER 38.5 yards receiving
A.J. Dillon UNDER 49.5 Rush yards
Joe Flacco OVER 36 Pass attempts
WATCH MORE: Zach Cohen provides fantasy stats that you need to know for Week 3.
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