Betting
10/21/22
7 min read
NFL Week 7 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Packers vs. Commanders
Green Bay Packers (3-3) at Washington Commanders (2-4)
Opening Spread: Commanders +5.
Opening Game Total: 41.5.
Opening Team Totals: Commanders (18.25), Packers (23.25).
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Commanders +5.
- This line has moved to Commanders +4.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Commanders +5.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Commanders +4.5.
- This total opened at 41.5 points.
- This total remains at 41.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Commanders: IR: C Chase Roullier, OL Wes Schweitzer. Out: QB Carson Wentz, Edge Chase Young. Questionable: WR Jahan Dotson, WR Dyami Brown, TE Logan Thomas, John Bates, RT Sam Cosmi, CB William Jackson III.
Packers: Out: WR Randall Cobb. Questionable: WR Christian Watson, LT David Bakhtiari, RT Elgton Jenkins.
The Commanders Offense vs. Packers Defense
I have the Commanders offensive line ranked right on the border of an average to a below average unit. The Packers front four is a top-ten unit. Green Bay has an edge in the trenches against the Commanders.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Commanders are 2-4 against the spread this season.
- The Commanders are 2-4 on overs this season.
- Ron Rivera is 91-84-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Ron Rivera is 89-88-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Commanders Offense
- The Commanders are scoring 17 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Washington is 16th in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing.
- Taylor Heinicke was Washington’s starting quarterback for most of last season. He’s not a massive downgrade from the 2022 version of Carson Wentz.
- Heinicke completed 25 out of 37 passing attempts for 268 yards passing with a touchdown and an interception against Green Bay last season. Heinicke added an abnormal 95 yards rushing on 10 carries against the Packers.
- Washington has a three-headed backfield with rookie Brian Robinson taking on the bulk of the carries, while Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic both see work in the passing game.
- Per the Edge with Heinicke under center last year against Green Bay, Terry McLaurin caught seven-of-12 targets for 122 yards receiving and a score.
- Curtis Samuel was injured for most of last season, but in the five games he was active he saw very few looks from Heinicke.
Packers Defense
- The Packers have allowed 20.5 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the second-most yards rushing per game and the sixth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Green Bay has given up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Packers have allowed the third-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
The Packers Offense vs. Commanders Defense
With Edge Chase Young still sidelined the Commanders talented front four is still not at full strength. Washington has a middle-of-the-pack front without Young, with one of the best defensive tackle duos in the league. The Packers have a top-ten caliber offensive line. Green Bay has a slight edge in the trenches against Washington.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Packers are 2-4 against the spread this season.
- The Packers are 2-4 on overs this season.
- Aaron Rodgers is 124-91-4 against the spread in his career.
- Aaron Rodgers is 112-105-2 on overs in his career.
- Matt LaFleur is 34-31 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Matt LaFleur is 25-30 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Packers Offense
- The Packers are scoring 17.8 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- Green Bay is 17th in the league in yards passing per game and 13th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among running backs Aaron Jones is 14th in yards rushing per game while teammate A.J. Dillon is 33rd. Jones is 20th in yards receiving per game at the position. This group has fallen considerably below expectations through the first six games, especially in the passing game.
- Allen Lazard leads the team in target share (19.7%) and air yards share (37.2%).
- Romeo Doubs has an 18.3% target share and a 22.4% air yards share.
- Robert Tonyan is coming off a 12-target game where he caught 10 passes for 90 yards receiving. Tonyan has at least four targets in three of the five previous games before last week’s usage spike.
- Per TruMedia, with Randall Cobb out, Allen Lazard leads active Packers with 93 snaps from the slot.
Commanders Defense
- The Commanders have allowed 22.5 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Commanders have allowed the 20th most yards rushing per game and are allowing the 11th-fewest in yards receiving per game to running backs this year.
- Washington has given up the fifth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this season.
- Washington has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers this season.
- The Commanders have allowed the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
This is What You’re Betting On in Commanders vs. Packers
This is a contest between two struggling teams. That isn’t a major surprise for Washington, who has a talented roster but no great answer at quarterback. That wasn’t entirely unexpected for the Packers passing attack given their limited wide receiver group, but the rest of the team isn’t meeting expectations, either. The Packers beat Taylor Heinicke’s Football Team last season 24-10 in Green Bay.
The Commanders are coming off a long week and they get the Packers at home this time. Washington hasn’t breached 20 points since Week 2’s matchup in Detroit. From a talent perspective the Packers are better than the Commanders at every position group but wide receiver and tight end. If you’re betting on the Packers, you are betting on their defense playing up to their potential against a limited Commanders offense. You’re also betting on Aaron Rodgers’ offense taking a step forward against a Commander's defense that has given up at least 20 points to all of their opponents except the Bears.
If you’re betting on Washington, you’re betting on Taylor Heinicke having a game like he did against Tom Brady’s Buccaneers last season. You’re betting on Green Bay’s offense continuing to struggle, while the Commanders front plays one of their better games of the season to date. The Jets defense truly shut down the Packers in Green Bay last week behind strong front play, so that outcome isn’t entirely off the table for Washington. Your biggest concern on a Commanders’ bet is that Green Bay bounces back in most, if not all phases after back-to-back losses to both New York teams.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take Green Bay in winner pools, though the Commanders make for an interesting differentiator option in that format. I will be right in line with consensus on where I rank the Packers in confidence pools. To be clear, consensus would be ordering your confidence pool rankings by ordering favorites based entirely on their point spread.
Spread Pool: I plan to avoid this game at this point, but I will either take the Packers side or nothing here. I’m 2-4 on Washington and 3-3 on Green Bay against the spread this season, so even if I had a strong stance ATS in this game I’d still try to pass since I haven’t had a great read on either team to this point.
Survivor Pool: In a week with a number of strong survivor options, this contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 21-9
Props 2022: 19-12
WATCH MORE: Heinicke Takes Command of Washington Offense
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