Analysis
9/21/23
8 min read
NFL Week 3 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Daniel Jones Interception Prop
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord, via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog), too. Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
Daniel Jones To Throw an Interception
Best Odds: +102 on FanDuel
This is only plus odds on FanDuel, and it's -125 on DraftKings. Daniel Jones has thrown a pick in each of his first two games. Kenny Pickett threw two interceptions vs. the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, and Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions against the 49ers in Week 2.
The New York Giants' offense will be overmatched by the 49ers' defense, and without Saquon Barkley, it will need to rely even more on the passing offense. That should lead to more interception opportunities for the 49ers.
Bet by: Larky
Elijah Mitchell 50+ Rushing Yards
Best Odds: +350 on DraftKings, +360 on Bet365
This is an alt-rushing line rather than the straight bet on his 29.5 rushing yards. Christian McCaffrey is 200 pounds and carried 22 times in Week 1 before carrying 20 times this past Sunday in Week 2.
On four days rest, it would be shocking if the 49ers give McCaffrey a major workload on the ground in a game they're favored by 10 points. The 49ers should destroy a Giants team that can't stop them on defense and whose offensive line is unlikely to protect Jones enough for them to be successful.
After five carries in Week 1, Elijah Mitchell didn't get a touch in Week 2. Mitchell is fresh, and the 49ers will run the ball in the second half once they're up. Last year, Mitchell had at least 50 rushing yards in three of four games that he overlapped with McCaffrey. And in only one of those games he had more than nine carries.
Mitchell's current rushing line is 29.5 yards, so books are already recognizing he'll be more involved since it's a short week. This is a line Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds have been waiting for since Monday morning. They think Mitchell reaching 50 rushing yards is almost a 50-50 proposition.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds
Frankie Luvu (CAR) OVER 5.5
Best Odds: -145 at Bet365, -150 at DraftKings
Frankie Luvu went over this total in nine out of 12 games that he played at least 85 percent of the snaps in 2022. He failed to go over this total in Week 1 with only five tackles, but the Atlanta Falcons were only able to run 48 plays against them that week. For context, the league average so far in 2023 is just shy of 64 plays per game.
In Week 2, Luvu was able to record nine tackles against the New Orleans Saints. Through two games, the Seattle Seahawks are allowing the sixth-highest tackle rate to opposing linebackers at 15.1 percent. In those two games, they have given up six or more tackles to every single linebacker that has played at least 50 percent of the snaps against them.
Carolina Panthers starting linebacker Shaq Thompson was injured last week and will miss the remainder of the season, which should ensure that Luvu plays 100 percent of the snaps for the third week in a row. My model has him going over this total ~75 percent of the time.
Bet by: Patrick H.
Najee Harris OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Pittsburgh has faced two premium fronts to start the year. Najee Harris’ volume has been low, but he’s led the backfield in carries. Expect this game to be close, and the Steelers have a really strong guard duo.
The Raiders’ interior defensive line is soft, and Las Vegas has given up the third most rushing yards to running backs this season. That came against Denver and Buffalo. Harris beat this number 10 times last year, and 49.5 is a very beatable number.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
Rhamondre Stevenson over 22.5 receiving yards
Best Odds: -115 at BetMGM
Expect this to be a muddy, ugly game offensively. The Jets have an excellent pass rush. Stevenson caught all six targets for 56 yards, and then all seven targets for 72 in his two matchups against the Jets last year. It’s early, but the Jets have given up the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs so far. He has nine targets this season already.
Against the Eagles, who also have a premium pass rush but struggle against running backs in the passing game, Rhamondre Stevenson caught all six targets for 64 yards, and Ezekiel Elliott had seven targets. Ultimately, I decided to go with yards instead of 3.5 receptions.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
Deshaun Watson Throws An Interception
Best Odds: +112 FanDuel
Watson has been terrible through the first two games. The Titans have an elite run defense and Mike Vrabel is one of the better coaches in the league. We can reasonably expect a close game. This one is on Deshaun Watson, who has thrown an interception in each of his first two games. My only real concern with this play is if Cleveland’s defense outright wins this game.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky, Wolby
Russell Wilson OVER 20.5 Completions
Best Odds: +100 DraftKings
Since last year, quarterbacks against Miami have gone over this number in 13 of 19 games. Both Justin Herbert and Mac Jones topped this number against Miami this year. Even though Wilson is 1-1 on this prop this season, he’s facing the Dolphins, who have allowed 16% more attempts and 24% more completions than the league average.
In his one loss, he had 32 attempts and 18 completions, but he faced the Commanders' defense – the team with the 4th lowest completion rate allowed dating back to last season. My model gives this a 58% probability.
Bet by: Wolby, Larky, Reynolds
Derek Carr Longest Completion OVER 36.5 Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
The Packers have allowed this just once this season, with the win to Desmond Ridder and the loss to Fields. But dating back to last season, Green Bay has allowed the third most completions of 37+ yards, with 17 in total.
In that same time frame, Derek Carr has averaged one completion this long per game, which ranks the fourth highest in that time frame. This season, however, he leads the NFL in completions of 37 or more yards. Why? He has two guys who can do it. Two went to Chris Olave, and two went to Rasheed Shahid – but even Michael Thomas and Juwan Johnson have had receptions or 25+ yards.
Carr also has four attempts of 37.5 air yards, ranking second behind only the Patriots' Jones.
Bet by: Wolby, Reynolds, Larky
Joshua Dobbs Longest Rush OVER 8.5 Yards
Best Odds: +100 on DraftKings
Dallas has allowed four quarterback rushes (the fourth most so far this year) of 9+ yards, two to Zach Wilson and two last week to Daniel Jones. Joshua Dobbs also has two on the season of this number or longer.
Dallas has allowed 21 such rushes dating back to last season, which is good enough for the fifth-most despite their awesome linebacker group, including Jayron Kearse and Micah Parsons.
Dobbs is definitely a bit of a mobile quarterback, as he has at least three rushes in all of his four starts. He’s 2-2 on this line in his career, but Dallas’ defense gives the opportunity for a 60-40 play.
Bet by: Wolby, Reynolds, Larky
Zay Flowers OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Zay Flowers has at least 62 yards in both games so far. The Colts cannot stop the pass, and their outside cornerback duo might be the league's worst.
Five wide receivers have already reached 55 yards against them this year (Nico Collins 7-146, Calvin Ridley 8-101, Robert Woods 6-74, Tank Dell 7-72, Zay Jones 5-55). I'd play this up to 54.5 yards.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds
Joshua Dobbs OVER 13.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Dobbs ran a 4.64 40-time, 88th percentile via PlayerProfiler among quarterbacks. While he only had three carries for negative three yards in Week 1, he did have three carries again, but for 41 yards against the Giants in Week 2.
Now, he faces a Cowboys team with a terrifying pass rush. Dobbs will be running for his life, like the other two quarterbacks who faced Dallas so far. In Week 1, the Giants' Jones ran 13 times for 43 yards against them. Week 2, the Jets' Wilson ran five times for 36 yards. I would play this up to 15.5 yards if needed.
Bet by: Larky, Wolby, Reynolds
Bijan Robinson OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on Caesar's
Bijan Robinson has at least five targets, four receptions, and 27 receiving yards in both games this year. He also is leading the Falcons currently with 11 targets. It's clear that he's the focal point of the Atlanta offense, not Ridder. Unrelated to the bet, but it's been incredibly impressive watching him work in space.
His 11 targets have come at a negative average depth of target, but head coach Arthur Smith has schemed him touches in space very nicely to this point (hence the 27+ receiving yards in both games), despite all the crap he gets from the fantasy industry about how he uses Kyle Pitts and Drake London. I'd play this up to 24.5 yards.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds
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