Opening Spread: Buccaneers -3
Opening Game Total: 40
Opening Team Totals: Buccaneers (21.5) Panthers (18.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Buccaneers -3
- This line has moved to Buccaneers -3.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Buccaneers -2.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Buccaneers -3
- This total opened at 40-points
- This total has moved to 39.5 points
Buccaneers: Questionable: WR Julio Jones, LT Donovan Smith, RT Tristan Wirfs, DT Vita Vea, Edge Anthony Nelson, CB Jamel Dean, CB Carlton Davis III, S Antoine Winfield, S Mike Edwards.
Panthers: Out: CB Jaycee Horn. Questionable: LB Shaq Thompson.
The Buccaneers Offense vs. Panthers Defense
Buccaneers center Ryan Jensen has been designated to return from IR but is not expected to play in a game yet. If both Buccaneers offensive tackles suit up for this contest, I’m treating the Buccaneers offensive line as a league average unit. The Panthers defensive front has gotten better as the year has progressed, where I now have them tiered towards the front of league average. This trench matchup is a relative draw, but the Panthers defensive front could make some noise here.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Buccaneers are 3-11-1 against the spread this season
- The Buccaneers are 4-11 on overs this season
- Tom Brady is 187-134-12 against the spread in his career
- Tom Brady is 171-160-2 on overs in his career
- Todd Bowles is 35-42-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Todd Bowles is 39-43 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Buccaneers are scoring 17.7 points per game, which is 28th in the league
- Tampa Bay is sixth in the league in yards passing per game and last in yards rushing
- The Buccaneers are passing on 68% of their plays and running on 32% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, last week against the Cardinals Leonard Fournette had 20 carries and 10 targets while rookie Rachaad White had seven carries and four targets
- Fournette and White had been more of an even split over the past month until last week
- Chris Godwin has 89 receptions for 848 yards receiving with three touchdowns. Godwin has a 21.8% target share and a 17.8% air yards share
- Mike Evans has 67 receptions for 917 yards receiving with three touchdowns. Evans has a 19.1% target share with a 35.8% air yards share
- Julio Jones has breached 50 yards receiving in two of his nine games this season
- Russell Gage has 18 total targets over the last two games
- Cade Otton has five or more targets in three of his last four games
- Cameron Brate has at least four targets in each of his last three games, but he missed last week’s contest against the Cardinals
- Per TruMedia, Mike Evans has played 627 snaps on the perimeter and 194 in the slot
- Chris Godwin has played 243 snaps on the perimeter and 490 in the slot
- Julio Jones has played 223 snaps on the perimeter and 86 in the slot
- Russell Gage has played 266 snaps on the perimeter and 163 in the slot
- The Panthers have allowed 22.5 points per game, which is 19th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Panthers have allowed the 14th-most yards rushing per game and the ninth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Carolina has given up the seventh-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- Carolina has given up the fifth-most PPR points to perimeter receivers
- The Panthers have allowed the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
The Panthers Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
The Panthers offensive line has improved as the season has gone on. I now have them at the front of the league average tier. In their current injury depleted state, the Buccaneers defensive front is a slightly below average group. The Panthers offensive line has a notable advantage in the trenches. If Buccaneers DT Vea misses this contest, the Panthers offensive line will have a substantial advantage in the run game.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Panthers are 8-7 against the spread this season
- The Panthers are 7-8 on overs this season
- Sam Darnold is 21-32-1 against the spread in his career
- Sam Darnold is 25-29 on overs in his career
- Steve Wilks is 14-11-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Steve Wilks is 12-14 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Panthers are scoring 20.9 points per game, which is 18th in the league
- Carolina is 28th in the league in yards passing per game and 10th in yards rushing
- The Panthers are passing on 54% of their plays and running on 46% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- The Panthers are 3-1 under Sam Darnold
- Per the Edge, D’Onta Foreman is now 19th in the league in yards rushing with 811
- Foreman is third in the league in yards rushing since Week 7
- Foreman has breached 100 yards rushing in five of his last nine games
- Chuba Hubbard has 65 yards rushing or more in three of his last four games
- DJ Moore has 56 receptions for 761 yards receiving and six receiving touchdowns. Moore has a 27% target share and a 46% air yards share
- Terrace Marshall Jr. has a 13.7% target share and a 24.2% air yards share
- Tommy Tremble (564 snaps, 177 routes, 7.3% target share) and Ian Thomas (564 snaps, 109 routes, 7.5% target share) are in a relative timeshare
- The Buccaneers have allowed 20.3 points per game, which is seventh in the league
- Per The Edge, the Buccaneers have allowed the 16th-most yards rushing per game and the second-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Tampa Bay has given up the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Buccaneers have allowed the 15th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to tight ends in the slot
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Panthers beat the Buccaneers 21-3 earlier this season, which spearheaded Carolina’s ascent into a competitive football team. The NFC South isn’t completely decided by this contest, but the winner of this game will be in the driver’s season.
If You’re Betting on the Buccaneers
If you’re considering a bet on the Buccaneers, there are two core considerations to make here. The first is that Brady’s offense can’t be relied upon for the first time this century. The Bucs are scoring the fifth-fewest points per game this season and Tampa Bay’s highest scoring output in a winning effort is 21 points this season. Brady still has that uncanny ability to storm back late while willing his team to victory, but overall this has been a bad, underachieving offense all season. The second is that it’s been routine for half of the Buccaneers starting defense to be on the injury report for weeks and weeks. The Bucs’ whole secondary being on the injury report is an obvious problem, but DT Vea is the big one in this contest. The Panthers have been very run-reliant under Steve Wilks, and they could have a field day on the ground if Vea misses this contest. If Vea plays, that significantly increases the Buccaneers ability to play more consistent run defense.
If you’re betting on the Bucs, you’re looking for Brady’s offense to breach 20 points on offense. That sounds like a given, but as we just discussed that’s been a borderline outlier output from this offense this year. Second, Tampa Bay has to slow down the Panthers rushing attack. If the Buccaneers can accomplish that feat, that puts the game on Darnold. While Darnold has played well, he hasn’t really had to go out and win games, either. If you’re a Bucs bettor, that’s what you want.
If You’re Betting on the Panthers
I’ve been saying this for a while now, but what a job Steve Wilks has done getting this Panthers team to this point. If you’re betting on Carolina, you are betting on Wilks’ tough, physical football operation against an underachieving Bucs team. The Panthers already beat up the Buccaneers once this season, and as wild as it is to say, they could do it again here. If you’re a Panthers bettor, you are betting on two core outcomes.
The first is that the Panthers continue to run the ball effectively against a Buccaneers run defense that was dominant last season. If the Panthers can accomplish this, that will allow Darnold to continue functioning in his game manager role. The second foundation of your bet is that Brady’s offense continues to struggle against a Panthers defense that has given up 24 or fewer points in six straight games. Your primary concerns as a Panthers bettor are that Brady’s offense finally erupts in their biggest game of the season, or Darnold has to go out and put the Panthers offense on his back.
Awards Market Ramifications: None, although Steve Wilks could and should enter the Coach of the Year discussion with a win here.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will be Buccaneers heavy in winner pools in a 7-3 type of ratio. I expect to be adjacent to consensus on this contest in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: Buccaneers -3 is where this line should be. I will wait until later in the week when the injury report is closer to finalized before making any plays here.
Survivor Pool: I would avoid this contest in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33