Dallas Cowboys (10-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8)
Opening Spread: Jaguars +5
Opening Game Total: 46.5
Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (20.75) Cowboys (25.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jaguars +5.
- This line has moved to Jaguars +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jaguars +4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jaguars +3.5.
- This total opened at 46.5 points.
- This total has moved to 47.5 points.
Jaguars: Questionable: QB Trevor Lawrence, RG Brandon Scherff, Edge Travon Walker, LB Chad Muma
Cowboys: Questionable: LT Tyron Smith, Edge DeMarcus Lawrence, DL Dorance Armstrong, S Jayron Kearse
The Jaguars Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
I have Jacksonville ranked as a top-ten offensive line. I have the Cowboys' defensive front ranked as a top-five unit. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw, though game-planning for Micah Parsons is a unique experience in the league.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jaguars are 3-7 against the spread this season.
- The Jaguars are 4-6 on overs this season.
- Trevor Lawrence is 8-19 against the spread in his career.
- Trevor Lawrence is 9-18 on overs in his career.
- Doug Pederson is 41-49 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Doug Pederson is 43-47 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Jaguars are scoring 22.6 points per game, good for 15th in the league.
- Jacksonville is 11th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
- The Jaguars are passing on 62% of their plays and running on 38% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Travis Etienne is 13th in the league in yards rushing with 814.
- Christian Kirk has 67 receptions for 874 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. Kirk has a 23.9% target share and a 29% air yards share.
- Zay Jones has 68 receptions for 655 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Jones has a 23.2% target share and a 26.1% air yards share.
- Marvin Jones has 33 receptions for 407 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Jones has a 13.7% target share and a 26.1% air yards share.
- Evan Engram has 53 receptions for 548 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Last week against the Titans, Engram had 11 receptions for 162 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns.
- The Cowboys have allowed 17.6 points per game, which is third in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Cowboys have allowed the tenth-most yards rushing per game and the 27th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Dallas has given up the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Cowboys have allowed the third-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Cowboys Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
I have the Cowboys ranked as a top-ten offensive line, though I am curious to see what kind of an impact Tyron Smith’s return will have on this group after missing so much time. The Jaguars' defensive front is talented, but inconsistent. I have them tiered as an average to below average group. The Cowboys' offensive line has a moderate advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cowboys are 7-3 against the spread this season.
- The Cowboys are 4-6 on overs this season.
- Dak Prescott is 51-36-3 against the spread in his career.
- Dak Prescott is 43-47 on overs in his career.
- Mike McCarthy is 137-105-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike McCarthy is 134-111-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Cowboys are scoring 27.7 points per game, which is third in the league.
- Dallas is 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing.
- The Cowboys are passing on 54% of their plays and running on 46% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Tony Pollard has breached 80 yards rushing in seven of his last eleven games. Pollard has at least ten carries in each of his last eight games. Pollard has five or more targets in three of his last five games.
- Ezekiel Elliot has double-digit carries in each of the eleven games he’s played this season. Elliot has at least 15 carries in each of his last five games.
- CeeDee Lamb is ninth in the league in receptions (74), eighth in yards receiving (961), tied for 11th in receiving touchdowns (6), seventh in target share (29.2%), and 15th in air yards share (36.7%).
- Michael Gallup has at least six targets in six of his last eight games with four or more receptions in four of his last six contests.
- Dalton Schultz has at least five targets in all but one of the eight games he’s played with Dak Prescott.
- Per TruMedia, CeeDee Lamb has played 366 snaps on the perimeter and 348 in the slot.
- Michael Gallup has played 439 snaps on the perimeter and 22 in the slot.
- Dalton Schultz has played 350 snaps as an in-line tight end, 47 on the perimeter, and 130 in the slot.
- The Jaguars have allowed 22.6 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the 19th-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Jacksonville has given up the 16th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Jacksonville has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Jaguars have allowed the third-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Jaguars have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Jaguars vs. Cowboys
Dallas is in an interesting position here, as they are in a bounce-back spot after nearly losing to the worst team in football, while simultaneously having the Eagles on deck next week. Dallas can’t really afford to lose this game if they want any kind of shot at winning the NFC East, so we should expect them to be sharp and motivated against a dangerous Jaguars team. The Cowboys are one of few teams in the league that can win a game in a variety of different styles. Defensively, the Cowboys are a tough matchup for a young team like Jacksonville. If the Cowboys fall below expectations on defense, either Trevor Lawrence or Travis Etienne carries that effort. Offensively Dallas has one of the best running back duos in the league, while Dak Prescott’s passing offense continues to be a good, but not quite great unit. If you’re betting on Dallas, you are betting on a strong game from Dak Prescott, after his offense underwhelmed against Houston. Your biggest concern as a Dallas bettor is that the Cowboys' offense has another middling performance while Trevor Lawrence has the kind of game where you wonder if he’s the best quarterback on the field.
The Jaguars have a narrow path to playing for the AFC South crown in the regular season finale against the Titans. To get there, the Jaguars need to start stacking wins. If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you are betting on a young, inconsistent team that’s highly motivated and playing some of its best football of the season. Trevor Lawrence has a solid supporting cast on offense, but they lack a true headlining pass-catcher. That type of roster flaw tends to show up against the better defenses like Dallas. If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you are primarily building that bet on Trevor Lawrence elevating this team. Another interesting factor of a Jaguars bet is that their defense has been underperforming for most of the second half of the season, but they have the raw materials for a spike game. You don’t want to build a Jaguars bet around their defense exceeding expectations, but they have enough relevant talent for that kind of outcome. Your biggest concern as a Jaguars bettor is that Jacksonville is simply facing a better, more experienced team. From a matchup’s perspective, the Jaguar pass defense’s ability to hold up against Dallas is your biggest concern.
Awards Market Ramifications: Doug Pederson has a narrow path to being a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: The Jaguars make for an interesting contrarian option in winner pools. I’m going to be Cowboys-heavy in that format, but I will have the Jaguars in at least one entry. I expect to be slightly below consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: This will be a Jaguars or pass bet for me, right now I’m leaning towards passing.
Survivor Pool: I would avoid this contest in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29