Analysis
8/10/23
6 min read
NFL Record Predictions for Every NFC South Team Entering 2023 Preseason
With a full slate of preseason games just days away, it’s time to take an updated look at each team’s season-long prospects. In the coming days, we’ll provide record predictions for each NFL team, continuing with the NFC South.
Listen to NFL insider Ari Meirov discuss fantasy-relevant news for each NFC team with Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds.
Other Division Betting Predictions
AFC: East | South | North | West
NFC South Record Predictions
Atlanta Falcons
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 8.5
Division Odds: +215
Super Bowl Odds: +6000
Few teams improved their roster more than the Atlanta Falcons this offseason. Atlanta enters the year with a top-10 offensive line, three blue chip skill players and an upgraded defense. However, the Falcons still have a big question mark at the most important position in sports: quarterback. How far the team goes this season depends on Desmond Ridder.
How Atlanta Exceeds Expectations
Falcons coach Arthur Smith played a major role in the resurrection of Ryan Tannehill’s career in Tennessee. If Smith can get Tannehill-like efficiency out of Ridder, the Falcons have enough talent on offense to be a fringe top-10 unit. Pair that with one of the league’s easiest schedules and a much-improved defense, and you can see how Atlanta could vie for a playoff berth.
How Atlanta Fails to Meet Expectations
Ridder is a former third-round pick entering his second season as a pro. He was fine in his four appearances last season but was little more than a game manager. If Atlanta underwhelms this season, the most likely reason is we’ve already seen who Ridder is. Atlanta’s improved defense has a much higher ceiling than last year, but it also lacks continuity. It would be a surprise if the Falcons' defense wasn’t notably better this year, but that could take some time.
Record Prediction: 9-8
>> READ: Falcons Fantasy Team Preview
Carolina Panthers
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 7.5
Division Odds: +400
Super Bowl Odds: +8000
The Frank Reich and Bryce Young era begins for the Carolina Panthers. The NFC South is the weakest, most wide-open division in football. In a best-case scenario, Reich and Young finish their first year together in Carolina with a division crown.
How Carolina Exceeds Expectations
After a 2-7 start, the Panthers went 5-3 in their final eight games behind good defense, a strong run game and an improving offensive line. If Reich can keep that foundation in place while Young has an Offensive Rookie of the Year-caliber season, the Panthers can win this division.
How Carolina Fails to Meet Expectations
The Panthers have one of the weaker skill groups in the league, which puts a lot on Young’s shoulders. Carolina’s defense was better as a group last season than it was by its individual parts. In other words, the defense overachieved in the second half of last year.
Additionally, the Panthers’ first six games are their toughest schedule stretch this season. A slow start is very much on the table for Carolina. If the team starts with a 2-4 record or worse, that could put this young Panthers team in too deep of a hole to climb out of.
Record Prediction: 7-10
>> READ: Panthers Fantasy Team Preview
New Orleans Saints
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 9.5
Division Odds: +120
Super Bowl Odds: +3000
The New Orleans Saints were a scrappy team in Dennis Allen’s first year as head coach, especially considering the volatility they had at quarterback. Derek Carr was brought in to change that and ultimately make the Saints a contender in the NFC.
How New Orleans Exceeds Expectations
The Saints have two unique advantages against most NFL teams: They have the easiest schedule in the league and one of the true, difference-making, home-field advantages. The Saints’ defense and offensive lines have been rock solid for years, laying a strong foundation for the whole team. If Carr can elevate New Orleans’ talented offense, the team could contend for the No. 1 seed in the conference, given its schedule.
How New Orleans Fails to Meet Expectations
Andy Dalton played reasonably well last season to the point that Carr will need a spike year to be a significant upgrade. That’s possible, given New Orleans’ advantageous schedule and Carr’s supporting cast, but it’s not guaranteed. On top of that, the Saints’ defense has been gradually losing talent for years, and some of its best defenders are on the wrong side of 30. If those aging players decline or struggle to stay healthy, the defense could take a big step back this season.
Record Prediction: 11-6
>> READ: Saints Fantasy Team Preview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2022 Record: 8-9
2023 Win Total: 6.5
Division Odds: +800
Super Bowl Odds: +9000
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were an ugly 8-9 in 2022 and lost to the Dallas Cowboys 31-14 in the Wild Card round. The Buccaneers now make the transition from Tom Brady to some combination of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. What could go wrong?
How Tampa Bay Exceeds Expectations
The Buccaneers have a number of talented players on defense, two premium offensive linemen and a strong wide receiver duo. If Tampa Bay’s defense plays like a top-10 unit while Mayfield and/or Trask run an efficient offense, the Buccaneers could conceivably beat their 6.5-game win total.
How Tampa Bay Fails to Meet Expectations
The transition from Brady to Mayfield and/or Trask is one of the biggest drop-offs in quarterback stability and leadership in the history of the league. Mayfield at least has some potential as a reclamation project with a solid supporting cast, but in many ways, he’s a complete departure from how Brady does business.
The Buccaneers have a major schedule disadvantage vs. their division rivals, as Tampa Bay gets the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers as opponents. There are more paths to Tampa Bay failing to meet expectations this season than exceeding them.
Record Prediction: 3-14
>> READ: Buccaneers Fantasy Team Preview
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