Betting
8/16/23
6 min read
NFL Record Predictions for Every AFC North Team Entering 2023 Preseason
With preseason football underway, it’s time to take an updated look at each team’s season-long prospects. In the coming days, we’ll provide record predictions for each NFL team, continuing with the AFC North.
Listen to NFL insider Ari Meirov discuss every AFC team with Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds.
Other Division Betting Predictions
NFC: North | South | East | West
AFC North Record Predictions
Baltimore Ravens
2022 Record: 10-7
2023 Win Total: 10.5
Division Odds: +235
Super Bowl Odds: +1800
The Baltimore Ravens are one of the most consistent teams this century. They’re reliable and a tough out, but the AFC North is the league’s most complete division. No one is an easy out in this division.
How Baltimore Exceeds Expectations
Former MVP Lamar Jackson enters this year with the best offensive supporting cast of his career. If the Ravens keep doing what they do on defense while Jackson takes a step forward in the new offense, they can beat their win total with distance.
How Baltimore Fails to Meet Expectations
Jackson has missed five games in each of the past two seasons. If that trend continues, that’s Baltimore's first path to failure. The second is Baltimore rolling out a dramatically new offense with many new pass catchers. The Ravens play all three of their division foes — on the road — within the first five games of the season. It would not be a total surprise if Jackson struggles early.
A third factor is that Baltimore has a below-average pass rush, and its secondary has more question marks than usual. The Ravens could struggle against high-caliber passing attacks this year. That’s a potential problem because Baltimore plays several games against high-performing passing attacks.
Record Prediction: 11-6
>> READ: Ravens Fantasy Team Preview
Cincinnati Bengals
2022 Record: 12-4
2023 Win Total: 10.5
Division Odds: +150
Super Bowl Odds: +1100
The Cincinnati Bengals added LT Orlando Brown this offseason. Brown an upgrade at left tackle and forces Jonah Williams to right tackle. That move is reminiscent of when the Rams signed former Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. Brown’s signing could improve two positions, transforming the Bengals' offensive line, just like the Whitworth signing did for the Rams.
How Cincinnati Exceeds Expectations
The Bengals will likely lose some of their offensive talent because so many of them are up for new contracts. That means this year's group could be the best-supporting cast Joe Burrow will have. Cincinnati is already a premium offense, but they could rise to the top this season. Whether the Bengals are the league’s best offense or the fifth, they need defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo to continue leading an overachieving defense.
How Cincinnati Fails to Meet Expectations
If Burrow’s calf injury results in a few missed games, that’s an obvious negative for the Bengals' regular season prospects. What could be worse is if the injury nags Burrow all season. Every team relies on its starting quarterback's availability, but Cincinnati will struggle to steal wins without Burrow.
The Bengals lost their best defender this offseason, safety Jessie Bates. Cincinnati has a mediocre pass rush and now is without its defensive centerpiece. Anarumo is one of the league’s best defensive coordinators, but he’s working with a below-average defense from a pure talent standpoint. Anarumo is a significant reason why Cincinnati has become a perennial contender.
Record Prediction: 11-6
>> READ: Bengals Fantasy Team Preview
Cleveland Browns
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 9.5
Division Odds: +380
Super Bowl Odds: +3500
The Cleveland Browns have a strong enough roster to contend in the AFC. Ultimately, Cleveland’s season boils down to which version of Deshaun Watson it gets.
How Cleveland Exceeds Expectations
If Watson returns to his pre-suspension form, the Browns have enough talent to be a top-10 offense. Even when Watson was at the height of his powers in Houston, he never had a premium offensive line or a running back like Nick Chubb. In a best-case scenario, Cleveland has a premium offense that can dominate on the ground or through the air.
Similarly, the Browns have a lot of high-end talent on defense. They have a fringe top-10 front, a unique linebacker in Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and a secondary with a ton of upside. That defensive talent started to come together down the stretch last season. If Cleveland fires on all cylinders, it is a dangerous team that can win games in multiple styles.
How Cleveland Fails to Meet Expectations
If the post-suspension version of Watson we saw last season is the new reality, Cleveland could bomb. In that scenario, the Browns will rely on their premium run game and their talented but unreliable defense. That’s who they were for most of last season.
Record Prediction: 9-8
>> READ: Browns Fantasy Team Preview
Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Win Total: 8.5
Division Odds: +450
Super Bowl Odds: +5000
The Pittsburgh Steelers enter their second year in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season, and the Steelers have the raw materials to keep that streak alive.
How Pittsburgh Exceeds Expectations
If Pittsburgh strings together yet another winning season, its stingy defense will likely drive the bus. As we saw last year, the Steelers are a different team when edge T.J. Watt is sidelined. However, when Pittsburgh has all of its key pieces, it has a top-five defense.
Kenny Pickett didn’t headline a high-performing offense in his rookie year, but he had his moments. In particular, Pickett played some of his best football with the game on the line.
Heading into his second season, the Steelers have a good, young skill group and an improved offensive line. Pittsburgh has a clear path to improvement on offense.
If everything falls the right way for the Steelers, they have a manageable enough schedule to make the playoffs.
How Pittsburgh Fails to Meet Expectations
The primary path to failure in Pittsburgh is the most obvious: Pickett doesn’t progress in his second year. The other most likely culprit is their new cornerback room. Patrick Peterson’s best days are long behind him, and rookie second-rounder Joey Porter Jr. is across from him.
The Steelers have a high-end pass rush that will help their vulnerable secondary, but their cornerback group is the biggest weakness on the team.
Record Prediction: 9-8
>> READ: Steelers Fantasy Team Preview
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