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NFL OROY Betting Odds, Tips, Picks, Strategies Preseason 2023

The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award is traditionally won by a quarterback, running back or wide receiver. An offensive linemen or a tight end has never won the award. 

>> Explore Other Markets: MVP | OPOY | DPOY | COY

The OROY race is tighter than most, so we’ll take a look at just 24 candidates:


Bijan Robinson +250 Bryce Young +500 Anthony Richardson +600
CJ Stroud +850 Jahmyr Gibbs +1000 Jordan Addison +1700
Zay Flowers +1800 Jaxon Smith-Njigba +2000 Quentin Johnston +2200
De'Von Achane +3500 Rashee Rice +3500 Jalin Hyatt +4000
Will Levis +4000 Dalton Kincaid +4000 Kendre Miller +4000
Jonathan Mingo +5000 Zach Charbonnet +5000 Roschon Johnson +5000
Tyjae Spears +5000 Sam LaPorta +6000 Josh Downs +7500
Tank Bigsby +7500 Evan Hull +7500 Jayden Reed +10000

A close-up shot of Anthony Richardson on the bench with his helmet off as he's looking up and away

The Favorites

Bijan Robinson, Falcons RB +250

Bijan Robinson’s situation is reminiscent of Saquon Barkley’s in 2018, where Barkley entered the year with +200 OROY odds. I bet on Robinson at +500 odds when the OROY market opened days after the NFL draft, with the expectation his odds would move like Barkley’s did. Robinson is a featured back playing behind a strong Atlanta Falcons offensive line. Barring injury, Robinson will be tough to beat in the OROY race.

Bryce Young, Panthers QB +500

Bryce Young is a first-overall pick who plays quarterback, making him an automatic favorite in the OROY race. The Carolina Panthers start the season with a difficult six-game stretch, so it would be no surprise if Young struggles early and the Panthers enter their Week 7 bye with a losing record. That’s when I’ll look into Young’s status in OROY betting markets.

Anthony Richardson, Colts QB +600

From a pure production standpoint, Anthony Richardson is Robinson’s biggest OROY challenger. Richardson’s season-long passing yards prop is in the 2,800 range, which is very low. However, he enters the league with top-three rushing upside at quarterback. Similar to Young, it would not be surprising if Richardson struggled early. However, the Indianapolis Colts finish the season with three winnable games. If Richardson peaks late, that could boost his OROY potential.

C.J. Stroud, Texans QB +850

Among the three rookie quarterbacks selected in the first round, C.J. Stroud has the weakest group of pass catchers. Stroud is also the most reliant on passing production compared with Young and, especially, Richardson. The Houston Texans’ Week 2 matchup with the Colts could have a major impact in the early OROY race.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions RB +1000

Jahmyr Gibbs is an electric talent on a contending Detroit Lions team. Not only that, Gibbs will play behind a top-five offensive line while being a weapon in Jared Goff’s passing attack. Gibbs won’t see the kind of volume that Robinson will, but Gibbs’ talent and situation make him the X-factor in the OROY race.

Zay Flowers, in purple, rushes through two Eagles defenders, in white, surrounding him

The Contenders

Jordan Addison, Vikings WR +1700

The Minnesota Vikings were a great landing spot for Jordan Addison because Justin Jefferson’s presence will lead to a lot of 1-on-1 looks for Addison. Ultimately, Addison might not see enough volume to catch the favorites in this race, but he’s in a position to potentially lead rookie wide receivers in yards and receptions. If Jaxon Smith-Njigba misses significant time, Addison would become the rookie favorite in both of those categories.

Zay Flowers, Ravens WR +1800

Baltimore suddenly has a crowded wide receiver room, but Zay Flowers has made an impression throughout August. The rookie could lead Baltimore Ravens wide receivers in receptions. Smith-Njigba’s wrist injury is a positive for Flowers' OROY candidacy.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks WR +2000

If Smith-Njigba misses a game or two due to his wrist injury, he’ll still have a path in the OROY race. If he misses a month or more, he will need a lot of other contenders to fail for him to have an OROY path.

 Quentin Johnston, Chargers WR +2200

Quentin Johnston closes out the contenders section of the OROY race, which is filled with all four first-round wide receivers. If Johnston plays a significant role in the Los Angeles Chargers’ offense early in the season, you could argue he has the highest ceiling among this group. If he opens the year in some form of timeshare with Josh Palmer, Johnston could fall behind quickly.

A close-up shot of Rashee Rice (in a red helmet, white jersey and red pants) running

Mid-Range Long Shots

De’Von Achane, Dolphins RB +3500

As of this writing, veterans Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert are De’Von Achane’s primary competition in the Miami Dolphins’ backfield. Given coach Mike McDaniel’s history, we can reasonably expect Miami to deploy a hot-hand approach with the team’s backfield, However, if Achane can emerge as the top option in this group, he becomes an interesting long shot. Keep an eye on Achane’s opening-day usage.

Rashee Rice, Chiefs WR +3500

Rashee Rice’s OROY candidacy is simple: If he plays a significant role in the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense, his OROY odds will skyrocket. If Kansas City eases him in as it did with Skyy Moore last season, Rice will be a nonfactor in the OROY race.

Jonathan Mingo makes a cut in a white practice uniform

The Long Shots

Jalin Hyatt, Giants WR +4000

Jalin Hyatt has difference-making speed, but the New York Giants have an extremely crowded wide receiver room. Based on their roster, it would make sense if Hyatt is eased in and doesn’t see enough volume to contend in the OROY race.

 Will Levis, Titans QB +4000

Quarterbacks do not need to begin the season as the opening day starter to be an OROY factor. In most races, if they take over by Week 5, they have a shot if they play well. In Will Levis’ case, he might not even be above Malik Willis on the Tennessee Titans’ depth chart, so Levis might not play even if Ryan Tannehill gets hurt early.

 Dalton Kincaid, Bills TE +4000

Even if Dalton Kincaid plays well early, a tight end has never won the OROY, and it’s hard to see him getting enough volume to be the first.

 Kendre Miller, Saints RB +4000

Alvin Kamara’s three-game suspension creates an interesting opportunity for Kendre Miller. If Miller makes an impact early in the year, he could keep a more significant role long term. The New Orleans Saints have the easiest schedule in the league, which is a positive for all the team’s skill position players. Miller’s OROY path is narrow, but he has one.

 Jonathan Mingo, Panthers WR +5000

Carolina has one of the weakest wide receiver rooms in the league. If Jonathan Mingo plays well, he could emerge as Young’s top option before the season’s end.

 Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks RB +5000

Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III was last year’s OROY runner-up. Zach Charbonnet’s OROY path is virtually the same as Walker’s was last year. If Walker misses significant time, Charbonnet would become an OROY favorite the next day. If Walker doesn’t miss significant time, Charbonnet is nearly drawing dead in this race.

 Roschon Johnson, Bears RB +5000

Roschon Johnson likely opens the year as part of the Chicago Bears’ running back committee. There would likely need to be an injury to Khalil Herbert or D’Onta Foreman to see enough volume for Johnson to factor into this race.

 Tyjae Spears, Titans RB +5000

Tyjae Spears is an explosive talent, but Derrick Henry would have to miss significant time for Spears to be an OROY factor.

Jayden Reed makes a leaping catch as a Patriots player trails behind him and grabs Reed's pants

The Deep Long Shots 

 Sam LaPorta, Lions TE +6000

A tight end has never won the OROY, and it’s hard to see Sam LaPorta being the first.

Josh Downs, Colts WR +7500

Richardson is not expected to be a high-volume passer, so Josh Downs won’t likely see enough targets to compete.

 Tank Bigsby, Jaguars RB +7500

Tank Bigsby is a quality handcuff in fantasy football, but there would need to be an injury to Travis Etienne for Bigsby to have any shot in this race.

 Evan Hull, Colts RB +7500

If Jonathan Taylor ends up getting traded or otherwise sidelined before opening day, Evan Hull becomes a fascinating OROY long shot.

 Jayden Reed, Packers WR +10000

Jayden Reed was the 50th overall pick in last year’s draft, and he’s seemingly in the lead for the Green Bay Packers’ slot receiver role. He should be a more expensive betting option in the OROY market.

OROY Predictions

OROY Pick: Bijan Robinson

Favorite Long Shot: Jonathan Mingo

Ryan has covered NFL awards betting markets since 2020 for Establish the RunFollow him @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.