Analysis

7/28/23

6 min read

New York Jets 2023 Fantasy Football Team Preview

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As we inch closer to opening day of the NFL season, we want to get you prepared for your fantasy football drafts. That process begins with our team previews, where we’ll break down each team’s offense while providing players we’re targeting and, in some cases, avoiding.

>> READ: Jets Season Preview from Eric Mangini

Jets Fantasy Football Team Preview

Head Coach: Robert Saleh (third season)

Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett (first season)

Key Offensive Additions

Key Offensive Departures

Key Offensive Rookies

Points Per Game: 17.4 (29th)

Passing Yards: 219 (15th)

Rushing Yards: 99.2 (26th)

Vacated Targets: 146 (15th)

Pass: 65 percent Run: 35 percent

Pace: 17th

OL Rank: 18th

Quarterbacks

After winning back-to-back MVPs, Rodgers had a rare down season in 2022. That drop-off translated to fantasy, as Rodgers was eighth among qualifying quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (21.1) in 2021 and 21st (14.8) last season. Now that Rodgers is in New York, the big question is can he return to form?

The downside case is obvious: Rodgers is coming off the worst full season of his career in rating (91.1) and QBR (39.3). That would be concerning for a quarterback in his prime, but it’s a bigger question mark for Rodgers, who will turn 40 in December. A second concern is the Jets' offensive line is less reliable than Green Bay’s. Rodgers’ otherworldly play-extending abilities will help, but age could be a negative factor there.

The upside case can be built around a number of factors. First, Rodgers played through a broken thumb on his throwing hand last season. That injury alone can reasonably explain how one of the best passers in history saw a drop-off in play. Second, the Jets have a deeper and arguably more talented group of wide receivers and tight ends than Green Bay did last year.

Lastly, Rodgers won those back-to-back MVPs with new Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett calling the offense. Already knowing Hackett’s system will ease Rodgers' transition to his new team.

Running Backs

Breece Hall was even better than advertised as a rookie, with 100 receiving yards in Week 5, followed by 116 rushing yards in Week 6. Despite averaging only seven carries per game in September, with snap shares below 50 percent in three of seven games, Hall still averaged 16.4 PPR points per game, eighth best at the position. An ACL tear in Week 7 ended a promising rookie campaign.

Recent reports suggest Hall is on schedule to play in September, if not by Week 1. While he may be eased in, he has the league-winning, bell cow profile we crave at the position, and it’s easy to see him as a top-3 weekly fantasy option come the playoff weeks. Rodgers has always been friendly to running back fantasy production, and Hall definitively has a higher ceiling than Aaron Jones, given Hall can handle more than 20 touches in a game. 

There have been some rumors linking Dalvin Cook to the Jets, but this shouldn’t affect Hall too much. Cook is at the tail end of his career, and Jets' runners tallied 425 touches last year despite being incredibly pass-heavy. There’s room for Hall to receive 250-300 touches and Cook to receive 150-200 touches in 2023, should the signing take place.

Behind Hall, Michael Carter is the pass-catching breather back, while Zonovan Knight and new fifth-round rookie Israel Abanikanda will compete for base down breather work. Carter should be active on game days, with Knight and Abanikanda likely competing for that final spot. None of these players is anything more than final-round dart throws, and unless Hall appears like he’ll miss Week 1, are best left on waivers in shallow leagues.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Garrett Wilson is the top option in this offense, and we have little doubt he’ll earn a high target share. Former Packers Lazard and Cobb join Rodgers in New York. Lazard will compete with veteran Corey Davis for the less valuable secondary option in New York’s offense. Keeping Lazard and Davis on the field at the same time could open up opportunities for Wilson to see more work in the slot.

Hardman’s role will be built around gadget plays and his high-end speed. Cobb will see sporadic usage, making him an unreliable fantasy option.

We expect Tyler Conklin to be New York’s primary tight end and for his fantasy value to be touchdown-dependent.

Wilson has all the ability to be a top-level wide receiver, and we expect Rodgers to target him like one. The downside there is he’s already being valued in fantasy drafts like a WR1. Davis is an interesting late-round dart throw as he’s a former first-round pick who has never played with a high-caliber quarterback like Rodgers.

Lazard has the benefit of built-in rapport with Rodgers, but we’d argue Davis is a more talented player. There is a chance Davis outperforms Lazard this season, despite being available seven or more rounds later in fantasy drafts.

Dynasty Sell

Ian Miller: Sell Wilson (WR4)

Wilson was amazing as a rookie and appears to be even better as a second-year player. But if you can flip him for a top-10 quarterback in Superflex formats, it’s hard to convince yourself that hanging onto Wilson’s upside at that price is worth it. 

Jets We’re Targeting and Avoiding in Fantasy Football

Josh Larky: Target Wilson, Hall

Ryan Reynolds: Target Wilson, Hall, Conklin. Avoid Lazard

Jordan Vanek: Avoid Lazard

Other Fantasy Previews

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS

NFC North: GB | CHI | MIN | DET

NFC South: NO | ATL | CAR | TB 

NFC West: SF | LAR | SEA | ARI

AFC East: BUF | NE | MIA

AFC North: CIN | CLE | BAL | PIT 

AFC South: HOU | IND | JAX | TEN

AFC West: KC | LAC | LV | DEN

Follow our Team on Twitter:

Josh Larky: @JLarkyTweets

Ryan Reynolds: @RyanReynoldsNFL  

Jordan Vanek: @JordanVanekDFS   

Ian Miller: @Dynasty_IM   

Our data is provided by Sports Info Solutions and our vacated targets figure is provided by Tru Media. 

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Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

Jordan Vanek

Jordan has been playing DFS since 2016 and started writing content at the end of 2020. While playing DFS, he has managed multiple top 10 finishes in NFL, college football, baseball, basketball and NASCAR.

Ian Miller

Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.

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