Fantasy
10/10/24
3 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Expert Start, Sit Picks for NFL Week 6
Now is the time to take a moment and think about your fantasy lineups.
Week 6 of the season is an important mile marker, representing the approximate midway point in many leagues’ regular seasons. Unless you’ve been dominant to open the year, this slate of games carries significant importance as a rallying point.
Is Week 6 going to be the week your team turns its fortunes around?
Get a head start in boosting your odds of a win by digging into this week’s start/sit picks for every position:
>> READ MORE: Week 6 Fantasy Rankings
Week 6 Quarterback Starts
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (@ DAL)
- Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (@ GB)
- Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs JAC)
This weekend’s matchup between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys stands out as a potentially fruitful opportunity for fantasy points all around.
Per Vegas Insider, this matchup projects to have the highest combined point total (52.5) in Week 6, save for the Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington Commanders contest at the same total. Granted, the Cowboys' defense is considerably weaker against the run (31st in run defense DVOA) than they are against the pass (18th in pass defense DVOA), according to FTN, but that shouldn’t dissuade managers from rolling with Jared Goff.
The veteran has recorded the highest passer rating (132.1) of any quarterback in his last two games (which factors in the bye week nicely). He's averaging 245.5 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game, per FantasyData. The Lions’ offense is rolling, and you should be eager to be part of their recent ascent.
Another game with a high point projection is between the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals. The wise managers out there, particularly in DFS, will be circling Kyler Murray’s name ($7,800 on FanDuel) as a strong start. His passing game has been a touch inconsistent this year, but the 49.4 rushing yards per game that Murray is adding with his legs are too good to pass up.
Williams experienced a proper breakout performance in Week 5 vs. the Carolina Panthers and looks poised to replicate that success against the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday. In 2024, the Jaguars have allowed the most passing yards per game (287.8) and the third-highest passer rating (111.7) to opposing quarterbacks.
Week 6 Quarterback Sits
- Daniel Jones, New York Giants (vs CIN)
- Drake Maye, New England Patriots (vs HOU)
This section was initially supposed to launch with a warning against trusting New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr. However, recent developments suggest he won’t suit up for at least a few weeks due to an oblique injury.
It’s unclear who will start, but whether it’s Jake Haener or rookie Spencer Rattler, you’re better off avoiding them, even in superflex leagues.
Speaking of rookie starters, Drake Maye is receiving the nod to be the New England Patriots QB1 in Week 6 vs. the Houston Texans. He will not, however, be anywhere near a QB1 in fantasy, in all likelihood. The Texans’ defense ranks in the top five in passing, rushing, and overall defense DVOA and is about as difficult of a draw as you can get for your first start.
It’s best to stay away from Maye and Daniel Jones. Though the Giants’ signal-caller has been passable at times this season, he’s better served being a QB2 in superflex leagues than as a starter in 1-QB formats.
This matchup bodes well for a shootout effort, but the unknown factor of Malik Nabers’ health (concussion) as of this writing makes circumstances a little risky.
Week 6 Running Back Starts
- Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders (@ BAL)
- Devin Singletary, New York Giants (vs CIN)
- Dare Ogunbowale, Houston Texans (@ NE)
I feel like Ekeler hasn’t gotten enough credit for his contributions this season.
He's averaging 7.5 touches, 75.3 scrimmage yards, and 11.7 points per game in point-per-reception scoring (PPR). The veteran scat back has finished no lower than RB32 in every week he’s been healthy. Also helping Ekeler’s cause is the fact that the Ravens have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards (183) to opposing running backs in 2024.
Another change-of-pace back who’s seen little fanfare is Dare Ogunbowale. Operating as the complement to teammate Cam Akers while starter Joe Mixon continues to nurse an ankle injury, Ogunbowale is averaging 14 touch opportunities (carries + targets) and 15 PPR points per game.
Should Mixon continue to sit, targeting the pass-catcher in Houston's offense is not a bad idea for some cheap points.
Lastly, I know that rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. performed admirably in relief duty in Week 5, but the fact of the matter is that Devin Singletary has been one of the league’s most efficient backs all season.
He’s been written about plenty from a stat-based perspective in the past, so instead of rehashing the case, I’ll just say I have doubts about him losing the starting gig due to injury.
Week 6 Running Back Sits
- Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ LV)
- Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ NO)
- Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals (@ NYG)
One of the major disappointments of this upcoming week is that Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jaylen Warren is listed as doubtful due to his nagging knee injury. It’s a real shame because the Steelers need to find some answers in their backfield.
Starter Najee Harris has flopped in back-to-back prime spots vs. the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4 and the Cowboys in Week 5, averaging just 10 PPR points on 16 touches per game. Though the Las Vegas Raiders rank sixth-worst in run defense DVOA this year, Harris’ inability to turn volume into fantasy production makes him a flex option at best.
Don’t take Irving’s inclusion in this section as a reason to bench him; he’s an honorary “sit” to bring up recent trends in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ backfield. During the past two weeks, starter Rachaad White has etched out a 62.4 percent snap share while operating with a route participation rate that’s a full 20 points higher than Irving (47.5 percent).
Yes, this backfield is still a committee, and both have room to contribute. However, the breaks need to be pumped on the prospect of a fully-fledged Irving breakout coming to fruition.
The Cincinnati Bengals is one backfield that could be turning. Partly due to sustaining an ankle injury last Sunday, Zack Moss’ share of backfield carries has fallen to 44.4 percent in favor of teammate Chase Brown. The interesting turn is that Moss is filling in a slightly modified role as a pass-catcher after running 20 more routes (39) than Brown (19) in that same span.
Brown has been the more explosive player of late, and this potential injury scare and the overall shift in Moss’ duty make him hard to nail down from a fantasy perspective. I’d avoid him this week unless he’s a flex option.
Week 6 Wide Receiver Starts
- Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (@ TEN)
- Tank Dell, Houston Texans (@ NE)
- Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers (vs ARI)
For as much credit as Colts WR Josh Downs has seen lately, we should also spotlight the efforts of his teammate, Michael Pittman Jr.
In the past three weeks, he’s registered 2.19 yards per route run and ranks second on the team in air yards share (24.7 percent). Not only that, but for as disappointing as his early season results were, he’s averaging 7.4 targets per game regardless of quarterback.
Wicks can be considered a flop from Week 5 (two catches, 20 receiving yards). The popular sleeper disappointed in the box score, but it’s essential to realize how involved he has been in the offense during the past two weeks with teammate Christian Watson out.
Wicks leads the Packers in air yards share (41.4 percent) and target share (23.8 percent); the drops were terrible, but Jordan Love wants to get the ball to Wicks. Stick by him in Week 6 against the Cardinals’ fourth-worst ranked defense in pass defense DVOA.
Dell's support is covered in my Week 6 rankings article, which I encourage you to read after you’re done with this. Get yourself as much information as possible.
Week 6 Wide Receiver Sits
- Ray-Ray McCloud III, Atlanta Falcons (@ CAR)
- Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders (vs PIT)
While I’m not exceptionally comfortable starting McCloud III yet, he’s listed here to highlight something interesting about the Atlanta Falcons’ offense.
Per TruMedia, Atlanta runs the second-highest rate of 11-personnel (more commonly known as three wide receiver sets) at 88.9 percent. The only team higher is the Los Angeles Rams, the former employer of Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
Another apple from the Sean McVay tree is bringing relevance to a surprise WR3 in the form of McCloud III, who is recording an 85.9 percent route participation rate with 6.2 targets per game. This information won’t be helpful for managers in 10 or 12-team leagues, but if you participate in a deeper format, go ahead and check for McCloud III on your waiver wire.
Our next player has seen 28 targets in the past three weeks alone, so why should fantasy managers consider benching that level of volume? Well, Jakobi Meyers is going up against a Steelers defense that allows just 25 half-PPR points per game to opposing receiving corps this year, according to FantasyPros.
Even for a player as good as Meyers, this matchup gives me the ick.
Week 6 Tight End Starts
- Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (vs CLE)
- Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ CHI)
- Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (vs BUF)
Don’t let the Eagles' bye last week lead you to forget that Goedert ranks tied for fourth among tight ends in targets per game (7.0) and third in PPR points per game (13.5) this season.
Will A.J. Brown's return complicate matters for Goedert? Perhaps, but there’s a reason you held onto him through the bye.
Keeping with the theme of pieces of information that might’ve flown under the radar, remember that Brenton Strange ranks 10th in PPR points per game (9), with an average of 4.5 targets per game in that span.
If Evan Engram’s hamstring still hampers him from playing again, Strange is the man.
Even though the New York Jets are dealing with their own set of problems in the post-Robert Saleh era, the offense should largely remain the same. As long as that’s true, Conklin can keep up his stretch averaging 10.5 PPR points and 7.7 targets per game) as he has in the past three weeks.
Week 6 Tight End Sits
- Theo Johnson, New York Giants (vs CIN)
- Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (vs JAC)
Johnson’s five-catch, 58-yard performance in Week 5 was fantastic, and he is seeing elevated involvement in the Giants offense lately (70.6 percent route participation in the last three games). Still, the rookie is well behind Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayton in the target pecking order.
It’s not a great practice to chase prior results unless there’s substantial supporting evidence behind them. In Johnson’s case, he just isn’t a high enough priority in his offense to matter for most “normal” sized leagues.
Similar issues plague Kmet, who’s running a route on a mere 63.2 percent of the Chicago Bears’ offensive snaps in the past two weeks since his colossal 10-catch, 97-yard performance in Week 3. For Kmet to take off, one of Rome Odunze or Keenan Allen would have to fall off or (hopefully not) get injured.
We just can’t bet on tight ends who aren’t on par with being the second option in their offense.