Jahmyr Gibbs Was Right Move for Lions in Round 1 of 2023 NFL Draft
Analysis 5/2/23
I'm tired of hearing how teams disregarded "positional value." The Detroit Lions picked a running back with the 12th overall pick in the NFL draft last week, and you would have thought they ran through their allotted time and forfeited the pick.
Reading the experts and listening to Lions fans cry about "over-drafting" a player at a position that doesn't get much respect (running back) drives me nuts.
>>READ: The Devaluation of Running Backs in NFL
Running backs simply don't move the needle when it comes to team wins.
Yeah, until they do.
In 2016, the Jacksonville Jaguars finished 3-13 and used the No. 4 overall pick in the 2017 draft to take RB Leonard Fournette. The Jaguars went from 3-13 to 10-6 and lost in the AFC title game. Fournette was picked behind DE Myles Garrett, QB Mitchell Trubisky and DE Solomon Thomas. The second running back in that draft was Christian McCaffrey, taken eighth overall. The Carolina Panthers went from 6-10 to 11-5.
Sometimes, you have to throw out positional value. (Yes, I know that both Jacksonville and Carolina passed on Patrick Mahomes that year).
Take a Different Route
It's my view it is often best to zig when others zag, and take a different route that might not be popular.
Lions general manager Brad Holmes was unconventional last week, and I loved it. He traded down from No. 6 to No. 12 in the first round (passing on Jalen Carter) and picked RB Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report). Then, he selected Jack Campbell (scouting report), an off-ball linebacker, with the No. 18 pick.
"I've always said that's what we're going to do, and we find players that fit us and what we're about, what we're about as a culture from a culture standpoint, from a character standpoint, from an intangible standpoint, from an intelligence standpoint," Holmes said afterward. "The talent is one thing, but these players fit us. That's why we're thrilled about them."
OK, so that explains not taking Carter with the sixth pick, and losing out on a player they reportedly coveted at that spot — CB Devon Witherspoon, who went one pick earlier to Seattle — made the decision an easy one to trade back and acquire additional draft capital — and Gibbs — when the Arizona Cardinals called.
The Lions signed David Montgomery in free agency, and D'Andre Swift was entering the last year of his contract. If you saw Lions games last year, you knew they weren't in love with Swift, whom the Lions traded to the Eagles before the draft was even finished. Maybe the Lions really liked Gibbs (and there have been reports they viewed him on the same level as Bijan Robinson). Maybe they could have drafted Gibbs later ... but maybe not.
Montgomery has some mileage on his odometer. In the past four years, he has more than 1,000 touches, including 915 rush attempts. He has scored 30 touchdowns. Last year, he played 65 percent of the offensive snaps for the Chicago Bears. If Gibbs is truly special — and he could be — there is plenty of room for him and Montgomery in this offense. Gibbs can be valuable as a receiver out of the backfield.
Lessons of 2000 Draft
Let me tell you a story about how my favorite team — the Raiders — once really disregarded positional value.
The 2000 NFL Draft was weird. First, only one quarterback (Marshall's Chad Pennington) was deemed worthy enough to be drafted in the first round. Although Tom Brady was in the draft and went in the (check notes) sixth round with the 199th overall selection.
The Raiders were coming off an 8-8 season (truly mediocre, never going on a winning or losing streak of more than two games). The starting quarterback, Rich Gannon, was just two years younger than the coach (Jon Gruden). A quarter-century ago, quarterbacks in their mid-30s were considered old.
Oakland had the 17th overall pick in the 2000 draft. The New York Jets controlled much of the first round, as they had completed a huge trade for Keyshawn Johnson and had four picks in the first round. The Jets had the No. 12, No. 13, No. 18 and No. 27 picks in the draft. They needed help on the defensive line and selected Shaun Ellis and John Abraham with their first two picks.
Meanwhile, Pennington kept dropping and was available to the Raiders at No. 17. Oakland had other ideas and selected a kicker, Sebastian Janikowski, with the 17th overall pick.
The Jets then scooped up Pennington with the 18th overall pick.
The Kicker and Punter
Positional value for a kicker? Look at this:
Since 1988, Janikowski has been the only kicker to be drafted in the top 45 picks of any draft.
Forget the first round. Only Chip Lohmiller (second round, 55th overall by Washington in 1988); Jason Hanson (second round, 56th overall by Detroit in 1992); Mike Nugent (second round, 47th overall by Jets in 2005); and Roberto Aguayo (second round, 59th overall by Tampa Bay in 2016) have been taken in Round 2 since 1988.
Janikowski wasn't projected to go in the first couple of rounds. One big reason was his arrest in an attempt to bribe a police officer. A native of Poland, Janikowski faced possible deportation. But, hey, we're talking about the Raiders. That probably just added to his appeal.
Janikowski joined an Oakland squad whose kickers had made only 9 of 18 field goal attempts from 40-plus yards the year before. He made an impact immediately.
In the same draft, Oakland selected a punter in the fifth round (142nd overall). Maybe you've heard of him: Shane Lechler. He might be the greatest punter ever.
Janikowski played for the Raiders for the next 17 years. From 2000-2016, he kicked 414 field goals for the Raiders, converting more than 80 percent of his field goals and 98.9 percent of his extra-point attempts.
In those 17 years, only one kicker (Adam Vinatieri) kicked more field goals (421). Lechler played 13 years with Oakland, including seven Pro Bowl seasons.
The Raiders improved to 12-4 in 2000, losing the AFC title game. They lost, 16-13, to the New England Patriots (the Tuck Rule) in 2001 when Charles Woodson forced a Tom Brady fumble (later ruled an incomplete pass), leading to Vinatieri's winning field goal. During that game, Janikowski's two field goals had put the Raiders up 10-3 and 13-3 in the second half, while Lechler's nine punts consistently put New England in poor field position.
In 2002, the Raiders were 11-5 and destroyed the Jets in the playoffs (Pennington was picked off twice, sacked four times). Oakland then defeated the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship Game. In the Super Bowl, Janikowski's 40-yard field goal put the Raiders up 3-0 early. Not much good has gone right for the Raiders since that moment.
But my long-winded point is this: The Raiders were better with Gannon for the next few seasons than they would have been with Pennington. They didn't need a quarterback or a running back (Shaun Alexander went 19th after Pennington). Oakland had two good running backs, Tyrone Wheatley and Napoleon Kaufman. They drafted a wide receiver in the second round, Jerry Porter, who started for them the next four seasons. That's pretty good, with the addition of the kicker and punter.
That Oakland squad was good enough to win a Super Bowl or two. One year, they got screwed by the refs. One year, their starting center went to Mexico on the eve of the big game and was missing in action when they needed him most. Stuff happens.
They did the right thing by picking the kicker in the first round and the punter in the fifth.
I really think the Lions did the right thing in the first round this year, too.
Elliott Kalb has been known in the sports television industry as "Mr. Stats" for more than 35 years. He is a 13-time Sports Emmy winner as a writer, researcher and producer. Follow him on Twitter @MrStats50.