Below you’ll find my Week 16 fantasy football rankings for PPR/half-PPR leagues. Included are my top-25 QB Rankings, top-50 RB Rankings, top-60 WR Rankings, and top-18 TE Rankings. I actually submit these rankings to two different rankings competitions, one with PPR scoring and the other with half-PPR. They are far more accurate for PPR simply because PPR scoring is less influenced by touchdowns.
When I look into weekly matchups, I only use the past five games of data. Anything that happened six weeks ago is just going to cloud our judgment. We are looking at a completely full slate with bye weeks being over, navigating injuries might prove to be the difference-maker, though.
Over the past five games, the Lions, Titans, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Bears have been allowing the most fantasy points to the QB position. Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, Geno Smith and Josh Allen appear to have the best matchups in Week 16.
|1||Josh Allen||BUF||@ CHI|
|2||Patrick Mahomes II||KC||vs. SEA|
|3||Justin Fields||CHI||vs. BUF|
|4||Geno Smith||SEA||@ KC|
|5||Joe Burrow||CIN||@ NE|
|6||Tua Tagovailoa||MIA||vs. GB|
|7||Lamar Jackson||BAL||vs. ATL|
|8||Justin Herbert||LAC||@ IND|
|9||Kirk Cousins||MIN||vs. NYG|
|10||Dak Prescott||DAL||vs. PHI|
|11||Trevor Lawrence||JAC||@ NYJ|
|12||Daniel Jones||NYG||@ MIN|
|13||Aaron Rodgers||GB||@ MIA|
|14||Tom Brady||TB||@ ARI|
|15||Jared Goff||DET||@ CAR|
|16||Derek Carr||LV||@ PIT|
|17||Sam Darnold||CAR||vs. DET|
|18||Brock Purdy||SF||vs. WAS|
|19||Deshaun Watson||CLE||vs. NO|
|20||Nick Foles||IND||vs. LAC|
|21||Gardner Minshew II||PHI||@ DAL|
|22||Zach Wilson||NYJ||vs. JAC|
|23||Ryan Tannehill||TEN||vs. HOU|
|24||Kenny Pickett||PIT||vs. LV|
|25||Russell Wilson||DEN||@ LAR|
Jalen Hurts is officially out of the Eagles Week 16 game against the Cowboys due to a sprained shoulder that he suffered during the Week 15 win over the Bears. The Eagles will turn to Gardner Minshew and all of the Minshew Maniacs are coming out of the wood-work. I’d recommend cooling your jets on the possibility of starting him in your fantasy line-up though. Minshew is an average quarterback with a boat-load of swag. He has a few inspiring come-from-behind victories, but lets not forget, he was playing from behind and in total YOLO-mode.
Seattle quarterback, Smith will likely be in a shoot-out this week in KC, but it will be bitter cold and wind could have an effect on the long passes he likes to throw to DK Metcalf.
What do you think the Colts should do about the QB situation? 👀
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 22, 2022
Zach Wilson looks bad, like he could be Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell bad. So far he’s worse than Mark Sanchez or Sam Darnold.
Darnold will remain the starter for the Carolina Panthers in Week 16. I have Darnold ranked higher than just about everyone while he’s facing the Detroit Lions’ suspect pass defense in Week 16.
After three games Deshaun Watson has ZERO top-12QB performances.
Trevor Lawrence has taken a massive leap forward in his second year in the #NFL 💪
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 21, 2022
Most analysts look at fantasy points allowed when judging matchups, but for the running back position, I look at yards per carry (YPC) allowed. YPC is generally a misused metric that tells us less about running back efficiency but does give us a good indication of defensive efficiency.
Running backs with the best Week 16 matchups are Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco against the Seahawks, Najee Harris against the Raiders, Alvin Kamara against the Browns, Dalvin Cook against the Giants, and Derrick Henry against the Texans.
|1||Derrick Henry||TEN||vs. HOU|
|2||Austin Ekeler||LAC||@ IND|
|3||Josh Jacobs||LV||@ PIT|
|4||Dalvin Cook||MIN||vs. NYG|
|5||Saquon Barkley||NYG||@ MIN|
|6||Christian McCaffrey||SF||vs. WAS|
|7||Rhamondre Stevenson||NE||vs. CIN|
|8||Tony Pollard||DAL||vs. PHI|
|9||Nick Chubb||CLE||vs. NO|
|10||James Conner||ARI||vs. TB|
|11||Aaron Jones||GB||@ MIA|
|12||Alvin Kamara||NO||@ CLE|
|13||Jerick McKinnon||KC||vs. SEA|
|14||J.K. Dobbins||BAL||vs. ATL|
|15||Travis Etienne Jr.||JAC||@ NYJ|
|16||Raheem Mostert||MIA||vs. GB|
|17||Joe Mixon||CIN||@ NE|
|18||Najee Harris||PIT||vs. LV|
|19||Kenneth Walker III||SEA||@ KC|
|20||Ezekiel Elliott||DAL||vs. PHI|
|21||Miles Sanders||PHI||@ DAL|
|22||Isiah Pacheco||KC||vs. SEA|
|23||David Montgomery||CHI||vs. BUF|
|24||Latavius Murray||DEN||@ LAR|
|25||D’Andre Swift||DET||@ CAR|
|26||Rachaad White||TB||@ ARI|
|27||Devin Singletary||BUF||@ CHI|
|28||AJ Dillon||GB||@ MIA|
|29||Leonard Fournette||TB||@ ARI|
|30||Zonovan Knight||NYJ||vs. JAC|
|31||Brian Robinson Jr.||WAS||@ SF|
|32||Jamaal Williams||DET||@ CAR|
|33||Cam Akers||LAR||vs. DEN|
|34||Deon Jackson||IND||vs. LAC|
|35||Zack Moss||IND||vs. LAC|
|36||Cordarrelle Patterson||ATL||@ BAL|
|37||James Cook||BUF||@ CHI|
|38||Tyler Allgeier||ATL||@ BAL|
|39||Chuba Hubbard||CAR||vs. DET|
|40||Michael Carter||NYJ||vs. JAC|
|41||Antonio Gibson||WAS||@ SF|
|42||Kareem Hunt||CLE||vs. NO|
|43||D’Onta Foreman||CAR||vs. DET|
|44||Gus Edwards||BAL||vs. ATL|
|45||Jeff Wilson Jr.||MIA||vs. GB|
|46||Samaje Perine||CIN||@ NE|
|47||Royce Freeman||HOU||@ TEN|
|48||Jaylen Warren||PIT||vs. LV|
|49||Joshua Kelley||LAC||@ IND|
|50||Khalil Herbert||CHI||vs. BUF|
The Commanders backfield split pic.twitter.com/w1ZGFiJPRx
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) December 19, 2022
We learned that when Rhamondre Stevenson is “active” we need to be secure that he is a solid start. Patriots Week 15 RB Snaps; Stevenson 43, Pierre Strong 14 and Kevin Harris 8. Patriots Week 15 RB Opportunity Share; Stevenson 64.7%, Strong 20.6% and Harris 14.7%.
J.K. Dobbins is the only Ravens RB we need to consider for fantasy. Week 15 RB snaps; Dobbins 23, Justice Hill 23, Gus Edwards 11. Week 15 RB opportunity share; Dobbins 60.9%, Edwards 30.4% and Hill 8.7%.
Miles Sanders' games with > 60% of the snaps:
Week 4: No Scott
Week 5: No Scott
Week 6: Big divisional game
Week 9: Rando Thursday
Week 11: Negative/tight game script
Week 14: Big divisional game
Curious if his snaps rise in the biggest game of the year.
— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) December 19, 2022
Jamaal Williams has been limited to 10.6, 9.5, 3.7 and 3.3 PPR points over his last four games. He’s scored a touchdown in two of those four games.
Houston Texans’ offense without Dameon Pierce operated with a full RB committee. Royce Freeman led them in rushing with 11-51-0, Dare Ogunbowale went 8-14-0 and Rex Burkhead had 2 rec for 17 yds (4 tgts).
With Colts RB, Jonathan Taylor out for the season with a high-ankle sprain, back-ups Zack Moss and Deon Jackson had ample opportunity to grind-out the clock with a 33-0 lead, but couldn’t do anything with that opportunity.
Chiefs backfield usage looking pretty similar to last week, just with a slight amount of Ronald Jones mixed in pic.twitter.com/ZOIGZ42Vxv
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) December 18, 2022
Bears RB Khalil Herbert designated to return from IR, has practiced all week, and is activated for Week 16. He will likely cap David Montgomery, who has been averaging 15 touches and 64.5 total yards in Herbert’s absence.
Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier has been emerging as the primary RB with Caleb Huntley (Achilles) out for the season and the decline of Cordarrelle Patterson, but he can only be considered low-end RB3 against Baltimore’s stout run defense.
I examine a few different statistics when trying to find good or bad wide receiver matchups, but yards per game and fantasy points allowed are the primary gauges.
|1||Justin Jefferson||MIN||vs. NYG|
|2||Tyreek Hill||MIA||vs. GB|
|3||Davante Adams||LV||@ PIT|
|4||Ja’Marr Chase||CIN||@ NE|
|5||Stefon Diggs||BUF||@ CHI|
|6||DK Metcalf||SEA||@ KC|
|7||A.J. Brown||PHI||@ DAL|
|8||Amon-Ra St. Brown||DET||@ CAR|
|9||CeeDee Lamb||DAL||vs. PHI|
|10||Jaylen Waddle||MIA||vs. GB|
|11||DeAndre Hopkins||ARI||vs. TB|
|12||Chris Godwin||TB||@ ARI|
|13||Keenan Allen||LAC||@ IND|
|14||Garrett Wilson||NYJ||vs. JAC|
|15||Tee Higgins||CIN||@ NE|
|16||Mike Williams||LAC||@ IND|
|17||Terry McLaurin||WAS||@ SF|
|18||Mike Evans||TB||@ ARI|
|19||DJ Moore||CAR||vs. DET|
|20||Christian Watson||GB||@ MIA|
|21||JuJu Smith-Schuster||KC||vs. SEA|
|22||Christian Kirk||JAC||@ NYJ|
|23||DeVonta Smith||PHI||@ DAL|
|24||Michael Pittman Jr.||IND||vs. LAC|
|25||Brandon Aiyuk||SF||vs. WAS|
|26||Jerry Jeudy||DEN||@ LAR|
|27||Chris Olave||NO||@ CLE|
|28||Zay Jones||JAC||@ NYJ|
|29||Amari Cooper||CLE||vs. NO|
|30||Diontae Johnson||PIT||vs. LV|
|31||Darius Slayton||NYG||@ MIN|
|32||Drake London||ATL||@ BAL|
|33||Gabe Davis||BUF||@ CHI|
|34||Adam Thielen||MIN||vs. NYG|
|35||Allen Lazard||GB||@ MIA|
|36||Marquise Brown||ARI||vs. TB|
|37||George Pickens||PIT||vs. LV|
|38||Jakobi Meyers||NE||vs. CIN|
|39||Joshua Palmer||LAC||@ IND|
|40||Brandin Cooks||HOU||@ TEN|
|41||Chris Moore||HOU||@ TEN|
|42||Donovan Peoples-Jones||CLE||vs. NO|
|43||Elijah Moore||NYJ||vs. JAC|
|44||Marquise Goodwin||SEA||@ KC|
|45||DJ Chark Jr.||DET||@ CAR|
|46||Curtis Samuel||WAS||@ SF|
|47||Treylon Burks||TEN||vs HOU|
|48||Jahan Dotson||WAS||@ SF|
|49||Tyler Boyd||CIN||@ NE|
|50||Michael Gallup||DAL||vs. PHI|
|51||Mack Hollins||LV||@ PIT|
|52||Parris Campbell||IND||vs. LAC|
|53||Van Jefferson||LAR||vs. DEN|
|54||K.J. Osborn||MIN||vs. NYG|
|55||Richie James Jr.||NYG||@ MIN|
|56||Isaiah Hodgins||NYG||@ MIN|
|57||Marquez Valdes-Scantling||KC||vs. SEA|
|58||Demarcus Robinson||BAL||vs. ATL|
|59||Alec Pierce||IND||vs. LAC|
|60||Russell Gage||TB||@ ARI|
|61||Isaiah McKenzie||BUF||@ CHI|
|62||Romeo Doubs||GB||@ MIA|
|63||Terrace Marshall Jr.||CAR||vs. DET|
|64||Robert Woods||TEN||vs. HOU|
|65||Nick Westbrook-Ikhine||TEN||vs. HOU|
The Texans have allowed one WR1 (top-12) performance this year, and it came back in Week 1 (Michael Pittman). Treylon Burks practiced again on Wednesday after missing the past two games with a concussion. Burks is the only Titans WR with any chance at a top-12, or even a top-24, week.
Jerry Jeudy has averaged 19.5 PPR points per game over his last five full games.
Over the last three games Sauce Gardner has had 113 snaps in coverage, faced just 6 targets, allowing three catches and only 23 yards receiving. All three games were against a team that ranks top-8 in passing yards. The Jets play Jacksonville on Thursday night.
There’s a good chance Corey Davis (concussion) will play for the Jets on Thursday, but the player to watch is Elijah Moore. Jacksonville has been the worst team at defending slot WRs over the past six weeks.
Over the past six weeks you looked smart starting a TE against the Jaguars, Cardinals, Dolphins, Falcons, and Titans. Mark Andrews should be able to get back on track in Week 16, and Tyler Conklin, Robert Tonyan, Cade Otton, and Jordan Akins could be viable streamers.
|1||Travis Kelce||KC||vs. SEA|
|2||Mark Andrews||BAL||vs. ATL|
|3||George Kittle||SF||vs. WAS|
|4||T.J. Hockenson||MIN||vs. NYG|
|5||Dalton Schultz||DAL||vs. PHI|
|6||Dallas Goedert||PHI||@ DAL|
|7||Evan Engram||JAC||@ NYJ|
|8||Darren Waller||LV||@ PIT|
|9||Pat Freiermuth||PIT||vs. LV|
|10||David Njoku||CLE||vs. NO|
|11||Gerald Everett||LAC||@ IND|
|12||Taysom Hill||NO||@ CLE|
|13||Dawson Knox||BUF||@ CHI|
|14||Greg Dulcich||DEN||@ LAR|
|15||Chigoziem Okonkwo||TEN||vs. HOU|
|16||Cole Kmet||CHI||vs. BUF|
|17||Juwan Johnson||NO||@ CLE|
|18||Tyler Conklin||NYJ||vs. JAC|
|19||Noah Fant||SEA||@ KC|
|20||Robert Tonyan||GB||@ MIA|
|21||Cade Otton||TB||@ ARI|
|22||Jordan Akins||HOU||@ TEN|
|23||Hunter Henry||NE||vs. CIN|
|24||Tyler Higbee||LAR||vs. DEN|
Mark Andrews has only scored 46.2 PPR points (under seven per game) over his last seven games.
If you're stuck scouring the waiver wire for a kicker or D/ST in fantasy this week, @ZachCohenFB has you covered 👍
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 22, 2022
Jaguars’ WR/TE Routes Run (Targets)
Evan Engram just had his first back-to-back games with double-digit targets since Weeks 8-9 of the 2020 season.
When examining these rankings, consider that I am really only looking at positional ranks, not flex or overall rankings. When it comes to who you start in the flex, a lot will depend on your specific league rules and roster construction. If players are ranked within three spots of each other, the difference between them is negligible.
Good luck this week!
WATCH: QBs to Stream in Week 16