Analysis
11/23/22
10 min read
Navigating Thanksgiving Games in DFS
Three-game slates should be treated much differently than a full slate of games. Playing certain players against your defense becomes more acceptable, game stacking becomes a lot more significant and the decision on chalk has a lot more weight. The structure of this piece will go game by game with a player pool at the end.
I also have three articles for each of these games from a showdown perspective:
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Bills vs. Lions
Passing Game
Bills
The Lions' defense has learned to stop the run because of their usage of stacking the box. Josh Allen hasn’t looked the same in recent weeks, but the coverages he has been facing have prevented him from pushing the ball down the field. The Lions have utilized a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3 concepts, and Allen has been at his best playing both of these concepts. Allen will have a massive advantage here, as the Lions could be without Jeff Okudah and do not have a great defensive line up front.
I want to stack Allen with three pass catchers to help differentiate myself from the field and look to pay off his top-tier salary. There are five players I am considering for this Bills team: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox, and Quintin Morris.
Diggs and Davis have a 70% air yardage share against Cover 1 and 3. Diggs is coming off a week where his first target was with 18 seconds remaining in the second quarter, and I expect him to see a ton of volume. Davis is a deep target for this team, and the Lions have struggled with bigger-bodied wide receivers running down the field. The concern with Davis ties into Allen’s elbow and maybe not utilizing the deep play as much. McKenzie is the most intriguing play because he gets a ton of snaps in the slot and the Lions have allowed nine players over 60 yards receiving from the slot.
This past weekend, Wan’Dale Robinson had 94 yards receiving, while Darius Slayton managed to get over 60 yards receiving. If Allen’s elbow is still preventing the deep ball, they will need to attack the slot, and that is where McKenzie gets his full workload. Knox has had over 50 yards receiving in each of the last two games and has been a check down for Allen. The Lions have struggled to defend in-line tight ends and Knox will see snaps there. Quintin Morris has run 16 routes in the last two weeks and is an appealing punt play to Allen's stacks.
Lions
Jared Goff is not in my pool this week and it’s due to the coverage of the Bills. The Bills’ primary coverage is Cover 2 and Cover 4. Goff, against these coverages, averages 6.5 yards per attempt. The Bills have allowed over 300 yards passing, but it has had a lot to do with the opposing teams passing volume, and their wide receivers have made a lot of contested plays. Outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown, I am not sure we see that in from the Lions.
Against the Bills' primary coverages, St. Brown averages 2.95 yards per route run and gets targeted on 37% of his routes run. St. Brown is in line for a heavy workload and will lead this team in targets as always. The running backs get targeted on over 20% of their routes against these coverages.
Rushing Attack
Bills
Devin Singletary dominates the running room with a split between James Cook and Nyheim Hines. The Lions have been a good run defense in recent weeks; loading the box has worked for them. Singletary has had over 70% of the snaps in the last five weeks and has three touchdowns in the last two games. Singletary is their best goal-line running back, and Josh Allen has not had a rushing attempt inside the ten.
Lions
The Lions’ rushing attack is a headache to follow, Jamaal Williams is the goal-line running back that will see plenty of carries, and D’Andre Swift is getting out-snapped by Justin Jackson because of injuries. The Bills haven’t been a great run defense as of late, but they turned it around against the Cleveland Browns, and I believe they will continue that in this matchup. Swift has run the most routes out of the running backs since Week 9 and has ten targets. Swift has yet to see over 30 snaps since Week 8.
Giants vs. Cowboys
Passing Game
Giants
The only player of interest in the Giants’ passing game is Darius Slayton, Richie James Jr., and Lawrence Cager. The Cowboys are going to pressure Daniel Jones the entire game and put on a show against the Vikings last weekend.
Cowboys
Dak Prescott is coming off his best game of the season and is in a matchup where he will have the advantage. The Giants play a lot of Cover 1 and attempt to pressure you before their coverage gets beat. They have multiple corners on the injury report, and the Cowboys will have a significant advantage with CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. Against that coverage, Prescott is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt and against a blitz, he has a 73% completion percentage.
The two main targets for the Cowboys will be CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. Since returning from injury both of these players against the Giants' primary coverage have been targeted on over 30% of their routes, and average over two yards per route run. Noah Brown only gets targeted on 11% of his routes against these coverages with Prescott. This game also features the news of Odell Beckham Jr. possibly joining the Cowboys, and I believe the Cowboys want to see what they have with Gallup in this matchup.
Rushing Attack
Giants
Saquon Barkley is the best playmaker on the Giants, and the only way this game stays close will be through him. The issue is that their entire offensive line is beaten up, and the Cowboys are a top defensive line. In the first matchup, Barkley had four receptions for 45 yards, and that will be a big part of his stat line. Another negative on Barkley is that Jones will utilize his legs near the goal line, and take away rushing touchdowns.
Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott is back and will take the short yardage away from Tony Pollard. Pollard has proven to be an explosive player and the Cowboys are going to get him more touches going forward. The Cowboys want both of these players to see over ten carries, and there is no reason we shouldn’t expect that going forward. The Giants are beaten up on the back end, and I expect Dallas to air it out. The Giants load the box and bring a ton of pressure.
Vikings vs. Patriots
Passing Game
Vikings
Primetime Kirk Cousins will be in full effect against the Patriots. The Patriots are fifth in the NFL in pressures, and one of the teams ahead of them is the Dallas Cowboys. Without Christian Darrisaw, I do not anticipate the Vikings blocking the Patriots enough, which will put a lot of pressure on Cousins. Cousins has also not played well against man coverage looks this season; that is largely due to Adam Thielen not being an impact against it. Thielen averages 1.03 yards per route run against man coverage and gets targeted less than KJ Osborn on a per-route basis.
Osborn is one of my favorite plays in this game because Justin Jefferson will be bracketed, and the coverage will be built for him. Justin Jefferson against man coverage has been the one that has won against it. The Patriots have utilized cover 3 when playing zone, and Jefferson has averaged 4.67 yards per route run against that coverage. Jefferson will never be a player to avoid, but the matchup does worry me against the Patriots. T.J. Hockenson has been a heavy target for the Vikings, but with Darrisaw, he will likely be a player that helps out in pass protection.
Patriots
Mac Jones will be pressured way too much and doesn’t have a great enough ceiling to be considered. The Vikings play a shell style of coverage and attempt to keep everything in front of them. Against the primary coverages for the Vikings, the main targets for the Patriots have been Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, and Rhamondre Stevenson. The tight ends have not been utilized much, and with how poorly they blocked last weekend, I expect them to be helping protect Jones. This game will be slow, and the volume will not be there.
Rushing Attack
Vikings
Without Christian Darrisaw, the Vikings’ offensive line will have issues. Dalvin Cook will have a big workload ahead of him to try and slow down the pass rush of the Patriots. The Patriots have only struggled with the run game in two games this season, against the Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens, and the Green Bay Packers. Those two teams are much better rushing attacks than the Vikings. Cook is on a slate where the running back position is weak, but I am uncertain the Vikings move the ball effectively, and the Patriots are a slow pace team.
Patriots
You can play both Stevenson and Damien Harris together. The Vikings have been a solid run defense this year, but we just saw the ability of two running backs getting there. Stevenson will control the passing game role, and against the Vikings, coverages will see plenty of targets. Harris has shown some burst as he’s worked his way back from injury and can get goal-line carries. The Patriots offensive line was not able to pass block at all this past weekend, and I expect a heavy dose of both of these players.
Player Pool
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | VegasPts | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | @ DET | 31.75 | $8,000 | $9,500 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | vs NYG | 27.75 | $6,200 | $8,000 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | @ DAL | 17.75 | $8,000 | $8,800 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | MIN | vs NE | 22.25 | $7,400 | $7,800 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | DAL | vs NYG | 27.75 | $6,600 | $8,500 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | @ MIN | 20.25 | $6,400 | $7,200 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | DET | vs BUF | 22.75 | $5,900 | $7,100 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | vs NYG | 27.75 | $5,800 | $7,000 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | BUF | @ DET | 31.75 | $5,700 | $6,900 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | DET | vs BUF | 22.75 | $5,600 | $6,200 |
| Damien Harris | RB | NE | @ MIN | 20.25 | $5,500 | $6,400 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | vs NE | 22.25 | $8,200 | $8,600 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | BUF | @ DET | 31.75 | $8,000 | $9,300 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | vs NYG | 27.75 | $7,100 | $7,900 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | vs BUF | 22.75 | $6,600 | $7,600 |
| Gabriel Davis | WR | BUF | @ DET | 31.75 | $5,300 | $7,200 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | NE | @ MIN | 20.25 | $5,100 | $6,700 |
| Darius Slayton | WR | NYG | @ DAL | 17.75 | $5,000 | $6,400 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | vs NE | 22.25 | $4,900 | $5,900 |
| Michael Gallup | WR | DAL | vs NYG | 27.75 | $4,600 | $5,700 |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | DET | vs BUF | 22.75 | $4,200 | $5,600 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | WR | BUF | @ DET | 31.75 | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| D.J. Chark | WR | DET | vs BUF | 22.75 | $3,800 | $5,000 |
| K.J. Osborn | WR | MIN | vs NE | 22.25 | $3,600 | $5,300 |
| Richie James | WR | NYG | @ DAL | 17.75 | $3,400 | $10,400 |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | NE | @ MIN | 20.25 | $3,100 | $10,100 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | @ DET | 31.75 | $3,000 | $9,300 |
| Marcus Johnson | WR | NYG | @ DAL | 17.75 | $3,000 | $9,400 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | WR | NYG | @ DAL | 17.75 | $3,000 | $10,000 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | vs NE | 22.25 | $5,000 | $6,300 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | DAL | vs NYG | 27.75 | $3,800 | $5,800 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | BUF | @ DET | 31.75 | $3,500 | $5,500 |
| Lawrence Cager | TE | NYG | @ DAL | 17.75 | $2,700 | $9,300 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | vs NYG | 27.75 | $2,500 | $8,700 |
| Peyton Hendershot | TE | DAL | vs NYG | 27.75 | $2,500 | $8,700 |
| Quintin Morris | TE | BUF | @ DET | 31.75 | $2,500 | $8,400 |
| Cowboys | DST | DAL | vs NYG | 17.75 | $3,700 | $5,000 |
| Bills | DST | BUF | @ DET | 22.75 | $3,400 | $4,400 |
| Vikings | DST | MIN | vs NE | 20.25 | $3,100 | $4,000 |
| Patriots | DST | NE | @ MIN | 22.25 | $3,000 | $4,200 |
WATCH MORE: Thanksgiving DFS Breakdown with Jordan Vanek and Ryan Reynolds.
