Analysis
11/23/22
4 min read
Bills vs. Lions DFS Thanksgiving Showdown
The Bills are dealing with plenty of adversity, and last weekend was a much-needed win. Josh Allen will continue dealing with this elbow issue, and I am seeing a difference in his aggressiveness. The good news for Allen is that the Lions are a team they have a significant advantage over in the passing game. The Lions are on a three-game winning streak and are finishing football games. If this offense can get healthy, we could see them in the post-season, and rookie WR Jameson Williams has started to practice. This game has the highest total on the slate and will likely be the one with the most offense.
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Vegas Line: Bills -9.5
Over/Under: 54
Notable Injuries:
Bills: OUT: DE Greg Rousseau, LB Tremaine Edmunds DOUBTFUL: DE A.J. Epenesa QUESTIONABLE: C Mitch Morris
Lions: OUT: G Evan Brown, DL Charles Harris, G Jonah Jackson, CB Jeff Okudah, DL Josh Pashcal QUESTIONABLE: Josh Reynolds
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Bills Offense vs. Lions Defense
- Josh Allen averages 7.9 yards per attempt, 8.6 air yards per attempt, and a 5.7% pass touchdown rate.
- The Lions defense gives up 8.1 yards per attempt, 9.1 air yards per attempt, and a 4.7% pass touchdown rate.
- The Lions have played more man coverage the last three weekends, loaded the box, and blitzed.
- Allen averages 6.8 yards per attempt, 8.7 air yards per attempt, and an 11.1% pass touchdown rate.
- Stefon Diggs will be the primary target against man coverage, and after a five-target week, I expect a ton of touches going his way.
- Gabriel Davis is better against zone coverage than he is against man coverage, but he will always have the opportunity for the deep ball against the Lions.
- Isaiah McKenzie primarily plays in the slot, and the Lions have allowed eight players over 50 yards from the slot.
- The Lions give up 2.5 yards per route run to in-line tight ends.
- Dawson Knox has 31% of his routes and gets targeted on 24% of his routes while lined up in line.
- Devin Singletary is the lead back, but James Cook has been more effective in recent weeks.
- The Lions have been a top-10 run defense the last three weeks, and that is due to the way they stack the box.
- Nyheim Hines hasn’t been able to get a role in this offense but has started to get snaps on offense.
Lions Offense vs. Bills Defense
- Jared Goff averages 7.5 yards per attempt, 7.6 air yards per attempt, and a 4.6% pass touchdown rate.
- The Bills have started to play more man coverage in recent weeks, and their pass defense has not been as effective.
- The Bills have given up over 300 yards passing in back-to-back weeks.
- The game scripts in these games have forced teams to throw it over 40 times, but it’s noteworthy they can’t stop it.
- The #1 options have been successful against the Bills this year: Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, Jaylen Waddle, and Amari Cooper.
- Amon-Ra St.Brown will continue getting manufactured touches and be the lead player in this pass-catching room.
- D.J. Chark was activated last week but only ran five routes.
- St. Brown gets targeted on 32.1% of his routes against zone coverage and 36.5% of his routes against man coverage.
- The Bills' run defense returned to dominance against the Browns.
- Jamaal Williams leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
- D’Andre Swift had fewer snaps than Justin Jackson in Week 11.
Overall Thoughts
The Lions have played exceptionally well in the past few weekends, and they will move the ball against the Bills’ defense. The problem will become their defense against a Bills offense looking to find a rhythm. Jeff Okudah will likely shadow Stefon Diggs, but Diggs will move around the formation and find himself away from the coverage. This is a week about the secondary options for the Bills and what impacts they can make in this offense. Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox are in great positions against a struggling Lions' defense.
Bills vs. Lions DFS Multiplier Pool
- QB Josh Allen
- WR Stefon Diggs
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
- WR Gabe Davis
Bills vs. Lions DFS FLEX Pool
- QB Jared Goff
- RB Devin Singletary
- RB Jamaal Williams
- TE Dawson Knox
- D/ST Bills
- RB James Cook
- WR Isaiah McKenzie
- K Tyler Bass
- K Michael Badgley
- RB Justin Jackson
- D/ST Lions
- RB Reggie Gilliam
- TE Quintin Morris
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