Betting

NFL Divisional Round Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Bengals vs. Bills

Bengals (12-4) at Bills (13-3)

Opening Spread: Bills -4

Opening Game Total: 50

Opening Team Totals: Bills (27) Bengals (23)

Weather: Outdoors, chance of snow

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Bills -4
  • This line has moved to Bills -5.5
  • This total opened at 50-points
  • This total has moved to 50.5-points

Notable Injuries

Bills: Questionable: DT DaQuan Jones, CB Dane Jackson, S Jordan Poyer

Bengals: Out: RT La’el Collins. Questionable: LT Jonah Williams, RG Alex Cappa

Bills Offense vs. the Bengals Defense

I have the Bills’ offensive line tiered as a league-average unit. As our Maxx Forde recently pointed out, Josh Allen’s skillset is an asset for the Bills’ offensive line in both phases. The Bengals have a below-average pass rush, but their defensive front is very strong in the run game. The Bills’ offensive line has a moderate advantage in pass protection, while the Bengals’ defensive front has a moderate advantage in the run game.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Bills are 8-8 against the spread this season
  • The Bills are 6-10 on overs this season
  • Josh Allen is 43-29-4 against the spread in his career
  • Josh Allen is 32-42-2 on overs in his career
  • Sean McDermott is 53-39-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
  • Sean McDermott is 43-52-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach

Bills Offense

  • The Bills scored 28.4 points per game, good for second in the league
  • Buffalo is seventh in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing
  • The Bills are passing on 54% of their plays and running on 46% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per the Edge, Josh Allen finished the season with 762 yards rushing, which is third among quarterbacks
  • Devin Singletary finished the season with 819 yards rushing, which was 26th in the league
  • James Cook has seen sporadic usage throughout the year, but he had 12 carries to Devin Singletary’s 10 last week against Miami
  • Stefon Diggs finished the season fourth in receptions (108), fifth in yards receiving (1,429), fourth in receiving touchdowns (11), 14th in target share (27.6%), and 18th in air yards share (34.3%)
  • Gabriel Davis finished the season with 48 receptions for 836 yards receiving and seven touchdowns with a 17.9% target share and a 30.5% air yards share
  • Isaiah McKenzie has only breached 50 yards receiving in two of his 15 games this season
  • Dawson Knox finished the year with 48 receptions for 517 yards receiving and six touchdowns with a 12.7% target share and a 10.3% air yards share
  • Knox has a receiving touchdown in each of his last five games
  • Per TruMedia, Stefon Diggs has played 545 snaps on the perimeter and 249 in the slot
  • Gabe Davis has played 746 snaps on the perimeter and 109 in the slot
  • Isaiah McKenzie has played 139 snaps on the perimeter and 385 in the slot
  • Dawson Knox has played 395 snaps as an in-line tight end, 81 on the perimeter, and 263 in the slot 

Bengals Defense

  • The Bengals allowed 20.1 points per game, which is sixth in the league
  • Cincinnati is 29th in the league in sacks, tenth in forced fumbles, and 18th in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, the Bengals allowed the 26th-most yards rushing per game and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Cincinnati gave up the 19th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • Cincinnati gave up the ninth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers
  • The Bengals allowed the seventh-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
  • The Bengals allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot 

 

Bengals Offense vs. the Bills Defense

Barring a miracle, the Bengals will be down both their opening-day offensive tackles and their right guard. At full strength, the Bengals’ offensive line worked its way up to a league-average unit, but with these injuries, they are a below-average group entering this contest. At full strength, the Bills have a borderline top-five defensive front. Without Von Miller and A.J. Epenesa, the Bills have more of a league-average defensive front. Given all of the injuries in this trench matchup, Buffalo has a moderate to significant advantage in the trenches.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Bengals are 12-4 against the spread this season
  • The Bengals are 6-9-1 on overs this season
  • Joe Burrow is 27-15 against the spread in his career
  • Joe Burrow is 20-20-2 on overs in his career
  • Zac Taylor is 38-27 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
  • Zac Taylor is 29-34-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach

Bengals Offense

  • The Bengals scored 26.1 points per game, good for seventh in the league
  • Cincinnati is third in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing
  • The Bengals are passing on 66% of their plays and running on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
  • Per the Edge, Joe Mixon finished the season 27th in yards rushing with 814, and he’s sixth among running backs in yards receiving with 441
  • Samaje Perine is 21st among running backs in yards receiving
  • In 12 games, Ja’Marr Chase finished with 87 receptions for 1,046 yards receiving and nine touchdowns with a 29.3% target share and a 39.1% air yards share
  • Tee Higgins finished with 74 receptions for 1,029 yards receiving and seven touchdowns with an 18.4% target share and a 28.5% air yards share
  • Tyler Boyd finished with 58 receptions for 762 yards receiving and five touchdowns with a 13.7% target share and a 17.8% air yards share
  • In 13 games, Hayden Hurst finished with 52 receptions for 414 yards receiving and two touchdowns with a 14.2% target share and a 9.7% air yards share
  • Per TruMedia, Ja’Marr Chase has played 585 snaps on the perimeter and 154 in the slot
  • Tee Higgins has played 585 snaps on the perimeter and 132 in the slot
  • Tyler Boyd has played 123 snaps on the perimeter and 633 in the slot

Bills Defense

  • The Bills allowed 17.9 points per game, which is second in the league
  • Buffalo is 14th in the league in sacks, 22nd in forced fumbles, and fourth in interceptions
  • Per The Edge, the Bills allowed the 23rd-most yards rushing per game and the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
  • Buffalo gave up the seventh-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
  • Buffalo gave up the fifth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers
  • The Bills allowed the 27th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season

This Is What You’re Betting On in Bengals vs. Bills

The Week 17 matchup between these two teams was canceled due to Damar Hamlin’s health crisis. Including last week’s victory over Miami, the Bills have won their last eight games. Including last week’s win over the Ravens, Cincinnati has won its last nine games.

If You’re Betting on the Bills

I’d argue that no team relies more on their quarterback than the Bills on Josh Allen. Outside of Stefon Diggs, Allen’s supporting cast on offense is very average. Like with any Bills bet, you must build that bet around Allen carrying this offense where they at least meet expectations.

The most apparent matchup advantage that the Bills have in this contest is their injury-reduced defensive front against the Bengals injury-ravaged offensive line. If the Bills are to win by enough distance to cover this now -5.5 spread, Buffalo’s ability to exploit Cincinnati’s injured offensive line is the clearest path to that outcome. That’s still possible without Von Miller, but it’s much less of a slam dunk than if Miller was available. If Joe Burrow spends most of his Sunday in a muddy pocket, that will make the tall task of mitigating the Bengals’ elite skill group far more manageable for the Bills.

 

You have two core concerns as a Bills bettor. The first is that Joe Burrow plays well despite the limitations of his injured offensive line. The Bengals went to the Super Bowl last season with a below-average offensive line, so that outcome is certainly possible. The second is that Buffalo’s offense is one-dimensional, where that group effectively goes as far as Josh Allen takes it. Surviving a few turnovers against Skylar Thompson’s Dolphins is not the same circumstance as giving Joe Burrow a few more drives. If Buffalo is going to win this game, and cover, Allen will need to limit his turnovers.

If You’re Betting on the Bengals

Any Bengals bet is built around Joe Burrow and his elite skill group. The Bengals have shown over the last two years they can beat anyone. Entering this game, however, they will almost certainly be down both offensive tackles and their right guard. One of my longstanding football tenants is that you can play effective offense with one liability at offensive tackle, but it becomes much more problematic when you have two. You can game plan around one unreliable offensive tackle because you can give them consistent help in various ways. You can’t really do that with two. The Chiefs’ Super Bowl against the Buccaneers a few years ago is a primary example of what can happen to an elite offense when it loses both of its offensive tackles. Your biggest concern as a Bengals bettor is that Joe Burrow’s offense is significantly hampered by their injury-reduced offensive line.

No lead is safe when Josh Allen is the opposing quarterback. Buffalo is among the most pass-centric teams in the league, which devalues the Bengals’ high-performing run defense to a degree. We can reasonably expect Cincinnati to focus its game plan on Stefon Diggs, forcing Allen to beat it with his role players. The best-case scenario for Cincinnati is limiting Diggs while forcing a couple of turnovers.

Your biggest concern as a Bengals bettor is that Joe Burrow spends this contest under siege behind Cincinnati’s injury-reduced offensive line. Your second-biggest concern is that Josh Allen’s turnover issues disappear and the Bills’ offense plays one of its cleanest games of the season. If both of those conditions happen, that’s the primary path to the Bills winning this game with some distance.

Score Prediction: Bills 24, Bengals 20

Ryan’s Recent Betting Record

TS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 48-32

Props 2022: 60-40

WATCH: Betting Divisional Round with Tank Williams

 

Fantasy

Fantasy Football: Week 13 Waiver Wire Adds, Drops and More

The fantasy football season is winding down, so let’s skip the fluff and dive straight into my Week 13 waiver wire report. As always, I’ll include players to add, players to probably not add and players to drop. It’s also geared toward PPR leagues unless otherwise noted. All players included are rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues, per FantasyPros’ rostership data. All stats are credited to TruMedia unless stated otherwise.

And as a reminder, the Cardinals and Panthers are the only two teams on their byes in Week 13.

Quarterbacks

Don’t get too excited about Mike White.

  • White is only rostered in 2.7% of leagues.
  • He scored 24.8 fantasy points against Chicago.
  • He had more than 16 fantasy points at halftime.
  • Against the Bears, he completed 22/28 for 315 passing yards and three touchdowns.
  • While there’s a chance White becomes fantasy relevant, one game against the 23rd-best defense against quarterbacks in fantasy isn’t a big enough sample size.
  • However, the Jets face the Vikings (25th) and the Lions (32nd) in two of the next three weeks.

Don’t expect much from Jared Goff, either.

  • Goff is rostered in 36.7% of leagues.
  • Goff scored 17.6 fantasy points against the Bills on Thanksgiving.
  • That was his best fantasy performance since Week 8 and his second-best performance since Week 4.
  • Buffalo was previously 6th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
  • The Lions have a relatively easy upcoming schedule.
  • They face the Jaguars (22nd-fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks) and the Vikings (25th) in the next two weeks.
  • Jameson Williams is reportedly slated to return to the lineup soon.
  • Still, this seems like an outlier.

Jordan Love is an intriguing streaming candidate if Aaron Rodgers misses time.

  • He’s rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues
  • Rodgers left late in the game Sunday night with an oblique injury.
  • Love stepped in and actually looked pretty good.
  • He played 10 snaps and was 6-for-9 for 113 yards, a touchdown and 8.52 fantasy points.
  • The Packers face the Bears in Week 13, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Chicago just let Mike White have a field day.
  • There aren’t many viable quarterbacks left on waivers, and Love played well enough against the best defense against fantasy quarterbacks.
  • Keep an eye on him if you need a quarterback this week.

Running Backs

Zonovan Knight, not Ty Johnson, is the Jets running back to own if Michael Carter misses multiple games.

  • Knight is rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
  • Carter hurt his ankle in the third quarter and didn’t come back in the game.
  • Knight led the Jets running backs in snaps and carries from then on.
  • Knight saw 14 carries to Johnson’s seven carries.
  • Knight saw three targets to Johnson’s two targets. 
  • Don’t be fooled by Johnson’s 14.8 fantasy points; he scored a 32-yard rushing touchdown to make it a 31-10 lead in the third quarter.
  • Knight only scored *checks notes* 13.3 fantasy points. 
  • Chicago had previously allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.
  • The Jets face three-straight teams that have been below average against fantasy running backs: Vikings, Bills and Lions.

JaMycal Hasty is a must-add if Travis Etienne misses any time.

  • Hasty is only rostered in 1.4% of leagues.
  • He filled in as Jacksonville’s main back once Travis Etienne hurt his foot in the first quarter.
  • He scored 20.5 fantasy points, which included five catches, 67 receiving yards and a touchdown.
  • Hasty was also tied for second in targets with five.
  • Darrell Henderson could be viable and is worth considering, but we don’t even know if he’s good or what his role will be.
  • The Jaguars have one of the toughest remaining schedules for fantasy running backs.
  • However, the Ravens had previously allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

You don’t need to hold onto Damien Harris anymore.

  • Harris is rostered in 62.5% of leagues.
  • Harris hurt his thigh in New England’s Thanksgiving loss.
  • He had already been dealing with injuries this season.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson is the clear No. 1 running back in New England.
  • Harris has yet to play more than 41% of the team’s snaps since Week 4, even in games he was deemed fully healthy in.
  • Even if Harris does return, his workload looks too insignificant to be of any fantasy value.
  • He’s simply Stevenson’s handcuff.
  • And yet, J.J. Taylor filled in for Harris in games he missed this season.
  • Use that extra roster spot for someone who may actually contribute to your team soon.

You still shouldn’t expect much from any Rams running back.

  • Kyren Williams is rostered in 27.3% of leagues.
  • Cam Akers is rostered in 55.6% of leagues.
  • I wrote that same sentence last week, and Week 12 reinforced my sentiments.
  • Williams led the backfield with 38 snaps and 11 carries.
  • He also ran 21 routes and saw three targets.
  • He only scored nine fantasy points in a negative game-script.
  • The Rams don’t look like they’ll be in many positive game-scripts.
  • Akers scored 3.7 fantasy points on eight carries.
  • Not all opportunities are created equal.
  • That means you can drop Akers if you haven’t yet.
  • Williams may hold some value in PPR leagues, but he should be nowhere near your starting lineups for now.

The Steelers’ backfield isn’t exactly a top priority, even if Najee Harris misses time.

  • Harris exited the game in the second quarter with an abdominal injury.
  • After that? It was a mosh posh of running back usage.
  • Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland split the workload pretty evenly.
  • Prior to Week 12, Snell and McFarland had a combined three snaps played, and McFarland had zero of them.
  • Snell appeared to be Pittsburgh’s preferred short-yardage back, while McFarland looked like the preferred receiving back.
  • Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris’ backup, was out with a hamstring injury.
  • This is just a mess of a fantasy situation to deal with.
  • Yes, Snell could be an RB2 in Week 13, but that would need the bulk of the carries and for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to miss the game.
  • Until we know for sure who the main back is, if there is one at all, then each of these players is a dart throw.
  • Pittsburgh plays Atlanta, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs.
  • If you need a running back, you may as well take a shot at Snell, then McFarland, and hope the dominoes fall in their favor.

Wide Receivers

Don’t expect much from the Rams’ wide receivers, either.

  • Van Jefferson is rostered in 18.7% of leagues.
  • Jefferson had 11.9 fantasy points in Week 12.
  • That included one touchdown on 29 yards receiving.
  • He also saw a team-high seven targets… but he only caught three.
  • The Rams’ banged-up receiving room will grant Jefferson fantasy relevancy.
  • Allen Robinson will miss the remainder of the season, leaving Jefferson and Ben Skowronek as the “top” options.
  • Skowronek has 7.3 total fantasy points over the last three weeks, despite seeing 4+ targets in each game.
  • But the Rams’ inefficient passing game will handicap Jefferson’s fantasy relevancy.
  • Whether it’s Bryce Perkins, John Wolford or somehow Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Los Angeles’ weapons will have a tough time receiving the ball.
  • Jefferson is worth a low-priority waiver pickup since the Rams still figure to throw the ball at an above-average rate.

Treylon Burks looks legit.

  • Burks is rostered in 43.9% of leagues.
  • Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods led the Titans with six targets.
  • But it was Burks who led the wide receivers with 70 receiving yards.
  • He scored 17 fantasy points, which included a flukey fumble recovery for a touchdown.
  • This is the third week in a row Burks has seen six or more targets.
  • The volume isn’t great, though Burks has averaged about 16 yards per catch over the last two weeks.
  • Despite a tough remaining schedule – three of the Titans’ next four opponents rank in the top ten of fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers – Burks’ upside and role warrant a roster spot.
  • If he’s still on waivers, scoop him up immediately.

Zay Jones is a risky wide receiver to start, but a good one to add.

  • Jones is rostered in 28% of leagues.
  • Jones balled out in Week 12 with 27.5 fantasy points.
  • That included a whopping 14 targets, 11 catches and 145 receiving yards.
  • That’s his third game in the last five with 10+ targets.
  • He leads Jacksonville in targets over the last two games.
  • Somewhat surprisingly, Jones has seen the 22nd-most targets among wide receivers this season (prior to Monday Night Football).
  • He and Christian Kirk were clearly the Jaguars’ top two wideouts in Week 12 based on usage.
  • Jacksonville’s next two opponents have both allowed plenty of fantasy points to wide receivers: Detroit (fifth-most) and Tennessee (third).
  • Jones shouldn’t be sitting on waivers past Week 13.

Don’t waste too much waiver capital on Richie James yet.

  • He’s rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
  • James in Week 10: 3/3, 48 receiving yards, 1 TD, 13.8 points
  • James in Week 11: 5/6, 41 receiving yards, 1 TD, 15.1 points
  • Those nine targets are the most he’s seen in a two-game span since Weeks 2 and 3.
  • James was tied for the most targets in Week 11, though, with no Wan’Dale Robinson.
  • He’s clearly a bit dependent on touchdowns.
  • But three of the Giants’ next four matchups are against teams in the bottom six of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
  • We need to see another week of targets from James before we can confidently pick him up and start him.

Isaiah McKenzie and Nelson Agholor are nothing more than deep-league streaming options.

  • McKenzie is only rostered in 28.4% of leagues.
  • Agholor is rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
  • If you have to stream your wide receivers…. my condolences.
  • Both players scored and saw 8+ targets.
  • Both players also saw season-high targets.
  • McKenzie’s last touchdown came in Week 4.
  • McKenzie hadn’t seen more than five targets since Week 6.
  • Agholor’s only other touchdown came in Week 2.
  • Agholor hadn’t seen more than four targets since Week 4.
  • McKenzie is more valuable than Agholor since Buffalo throws the ball more, but neither has been consistent enough to warrant a roster spot.
  • Nor does anything suggest their Week 12 production rolls over into Week 13.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin may finally be worth a pickup again.

  • Conklin is rostered in 25.2% of leagues.
  • Conklin only scored eight fantasy points on three targets.
  • But only one New York Jet (Garrett Wilson) saw more than three targets in a run-heavy game script.
  • Conklin scored more fantasy points than tight ends like Gerald Everett, Noah Fant, Cole Kmet, George Kittle, Greg Dulcich and Evan Engram.
  • He scored fewer fantasy points than tight ends like Josh Oliver, Jordan Akins, John Bates, MyCole Pruitt and Jake Ferguson.
  • What does that mean? This is a weird position to decipher in fantasy football.
  • Luckily, Conklin faces two of the worst defenses against tight ends in fantasy in the next three weeks: Vikings in Week 13 and Lions in Week 15.
  • Unluckily, Conklin faces the toughest defense against tight ends in fantasy in Week 14: the Bills.

Hunter Henry is nothing more than a weekly dart throw.

  • Henry is rostered in 27.4% of leagues.
  • Henry scored 15.3 fantasy points in Week 11, which included a touchdown.
  • One could argue he should’ve had two touchdowns. 
  • He has two games with double-digit fantasy points.
  • He scored in both games.
  • This is nothing more than an outlier.
  • The Patriots face the Bills in Week 13, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
  • You can consider picking him up if Henry plays well in Week 13.

Foster Moreau is still just a top streaming candidate.

  • Moreau is rostered in 36.8% of leagues.
  • Moreau scored 12.3 fantasy points on seven targets, three catches, 33 receiving yards and a touchdown.
  • Seattle had previously allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends.
  • With Darren Waller out, Moreau has played between 95% to 100% of the Raiders’ snaps each game.
  • Although he’s too touchdown-dependent to trust each week, there are worse streamers than Moreau.
  • Las Vegas’ next two opponents are about average in defending tight ends: Chargers (16th-most fantasy points allowed to tight ends) and Rams (20th-most).
  • I don’t recommend starting him until he becomes a bigger part of the Raiders’ gameplan.

WATCH MORE: Week 12 Fantasy Recap

 

 

Navigating Thanksgiving Games in DFS

Navigating Thanksgiving Games in DFS
Three-game slates should be treated much differently than a full slate of games. Playing certain players against your defense becomes more acceptable, game stacking becomes a lot more significant and the decision on chalk has a lot more weight. The structure of this piece will go game by game with a player pool at the […]

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