Betting
12/23/22
5 min read
Week 16 High/Low Underdog Fantasy Picks
Thursday night brought us two first half hits and a 2-1 overall mark. That brings our total for the season to 86-78-2. Much like Thursday night, many of the games are being severely affected by bad weather so be careful with those higher than plays. Despite the bad weather, I was able to find five of my favorite plays for this weekend that I will be playing, with one of my favorite plays of the season included last.
Gardner Minshew HIGHER Than 238.5 Passing Yards
When you have the opportunity to play a Gardner Minshew entry, you take it. The Eagles' offense should be easy for Minshew to slip into and find success. They are ranked the third-best offensive line by our Trenches Matchup tool, and he also gets one of the best receiving corps in the league, especially with Dallas Goedert back. This Dallas defense has been most effective when it is getting pressure, but the Eagles' offensive line should give Minshew plenty of time in the pocket.
In the first game this season between the Eagles and Cowboys, Jalen Hurts only had 155 passing yards. Hurts had 111 passing yards in the first half, which helped the Eagles build a 20-3 lead at half. The Eagles played very conservative in the second half, running the ball 20 times after halftime, which limited Hurts' passing yards. With this game in Dallas, I do not expect the Eagles to be able to play as conservative in the second half and Minshew to have to pass the entire game. Because this is Minshew’s first start of the season against a very good defense, I rate it as 3/5 for confidence and would not play it any higher.
Andy Dalton UNDER 141.5 Passing Yards
This game might have the worst weather of the weekend with below freezing temperatures, heavy winds, and snow expected. There is a serious chance that Andy Dalton will get less than 15 pass attempts this game. This is setting up to be a Taysom Hill game due to the weather and that the Cleveland Browns' rush defense is one of the league’s worst. Dalton is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt this season and will likely see below that in this game. Assuming he sees closer to seven yards per attempt due to the weather, 20 pass attempts will still put him lower than this line. Because the line is so low, I can’t play it with full confidence, but I still give it a 4/5 confidence rating. I would not play it much lower and would likely stop playing it around 135.5 receiving yards.
J.K. Dobbins HIGHER than 58.5 Rushing Yards
Dobbins has two 100+ yard rushing games since returning from injury, and I think he has a serious chance to make it 3/3. After not practicing Tuesday, he is off of the injury report and should be a full go. Being fully healthy in this Baltimore backfield is still limiting, as J.K. Dobbins will still split carries with Gus Edwards, but it is nice that he at least shouldn’t be limited by injury anymore. Not only should he get a majority of the running back rushes, but there should be plenty of opportunities in the running game as the cold temperatures will limit the passing game.
Dobbins is averaging an insane 8.75 yards per carry since his return from injury. You cannot expect that level of efficiency to continue, but Dobbins has a big play threat that few running backs in the league possess. Dobbins is facing an Atlanta rush defense that is not scaring any offenses and has faced the fifth-most rush attempts. The running back split for Dobbins scares me a little bit for this play, so I rate it as 4/5 for confidence and would play it to 59.5 rush yards.
George Kittle LOWER than 4.0 Receptions
George Kittle and the 49ers play the Washington Commanders this week, who have been one of the best defenses against tight ends. The Commanders allow the fewest receiving yards and the second-fewest receptions to tight ends. This is a difficult matchup for any tight end, even someone as talented as Kittle.
With Deebo out, Kittle did not see his role grow as much as expected. He only ran four more routes in Week 15 than he did in Week 14. This is most likely because San Francisco has started being more run-heavy with Brock Purdy under center. This Washington defense is actually pretty good against the run, but I imagine that the 49ers will continue to feature Christian McCaffrey. Also, with the 49ers looking like one of the best teams in the league over the last few weeks, this game could be well out of hand by halftime. Against Tampa two weeks ago, Purdy only had three pass attempts after halftime. Given the matchup and his usage in the 49ers' offense over the last few weeks, I am very confident in this play. I rate it as 5/5 for confidence, especially with the push potential, but I would not play it any lower.
Justin Jefferson HIGHER than 6.5 Receptions
I simply don’t understand this line. Justin Jefferson has been on fire recently, averaging 10.4 receptions over the last five games. He is averaging 7.9 receptions per game and has been higher than this line in 10/15 games this season. The only possible worry with this line is the Giants giving up the sixth-most completions per game this season. That is not too much of a worry though, as he has played three of the four teams giving up the fewest completions so far this season and has averaged 9.3 receptions against them. Play this line with confidence, as I make it only my second 6/5 confidence play of the season. It is by far my highest confidence play of the week and I would play it to 7.0 receptions all full confidence. I would play it at 7.5 receptions still, but not nearly with the same amount of confidence as 6.5 or 7.
