Betting
12/30/22
8 min read
NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Saints vs. Eagles
Saints (6-9) at Eagles (13-2)
Opening Spread: Eagles -6.5
Opening Game Total: 43.5
Opening Team Totals: Eagles (25) Saints (18.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles -6.5
- This line remains at Eagles -6.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Eagles -6.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Eagles -5.5
- This total opened at 43.5 points
- This total remains at 43.5 points
Notable Injuries
Eagles: Out: RT Lane Johnson. Questionable: QB Jalen Hurts, RB Miles Sanders, WR A.J. Brown.
Saints: Questionable: RB Alvin Kamara, WR Chris Olave, LG Andrus Peat, RT Ryan Ramczyk, LB Pete Warner, CB Marshon Lattimore, S Marcus Maye.
The Eagles Offense vs. Saints Defense
The Eagles have a top-five offensive line at full strength. With stud right tackle Lane Johnson sidelined, I’m moving the Eagles into the top-10 range. The Saints have a league average defensive front. Factoring in the considerable impact of Johnson’s absence, I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Eagles are 8-7 against the spread this season
- The Eagles are 10-5 on overs this season
- Gardner Minshew is 15-16 against the spread in his career
- Gardner Minshew is 19-12 on overs in his career
- Nick Sirianni is 16-15-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Nick Sirianni is 20-12 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Eagles Offense
- The Eagles are scoring 29.7 points per game, which is the best in the league
- Philadelphia is 10th in the league in yards passing per game and fourth in yards rushing
- The Eagles are passing on 56% of their plays and running on 44% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Jalen Hurts has some chance to play this week, but Gardner Minshew thew for 355 yards passing in Dallas last week
- Minshew is among the best backup quarterbacks in the league
- Per the Edge, Miles Sanders is fifth in the league with 1,175 yards rushing and he’s fifth in rushing touchdowns with 11.
- Sanders has just 25 targets on the season
- J. Brown is 12th in the league in receptions (80), fourth in yards receiving (1,304), tied for third in receiving touchdowns (10), ninth in target share (28.5%), and 11th in air yards share (38.1%)
- DeVonta Smith has 79 receptions for 1,014 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. Smith has a 26% target share and a 30.8% air yards share
- Dallas Goedert returned to action last week after missing over a month, where he caught all three of his targets for 67 yards receiving
- Goedert was among the league leaders in yards after the catch before his injury
Saints Defense
- The Saints have allowed 21.7 points per game, which is 14th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Saints have allowed the ninth-most yards rushing per game and the 26th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- New Orleans has given up the 21st-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Saints have allowed the fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
The Saints Offense vs. Eagles Defense
The Saints have a top-10 caliber offensive line. The Eagles have a top-five level defensive front. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup, where neither side has a significant advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Saints are 6-9 against the spread this season
- The Saints are 6-9 on overs this season
- Andy Dalton is 83-75-6 against the spread in his career
- Andy Dalton is 82-81-1 on overs in his career
- Dennis Allen is 20-29-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Dennis Allen is 22-27-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Saints Offense
- The Saints are scoring 20.2 points per game, which is 22nd in the league
- New Orleans is 15th in the league in yards passing per game and 19th in yards rushing
- The Saints are passing on 58% of their plays and running on 42% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Alvin Kamara has at least 20 carries in each of his last two games but only six total targets over that span
- Chris Olave remains on the injury report after missing last week’s contest, but he’s 19th in the league in yards receiving (940) despite missing two games
- Rashid Shaheed now has four or more targets in each of his last three games with 75 yards receiving in two of them, while still posting 41 yards receiving in last week’s extreme wind game
- Juwan Johnson’s usage has been sporadic recently, as he’s seen two targets in three of his last six games
Eagles Defense
- The Eagles have allowed 20.5 points per game, which is 10th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Eagles have allowed the 19th-most yards rushing per game and the 16th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Philadelphia has given up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Eagles have allowed the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Eagles clinch the top seed in the NFC with a win here. On top of that the Eagles have the Saints first round pick next year, which means that Philadelphia would improve their position on both fronts with a win in this matchup. The Saints are still alive in the NFC South, so they are highly motivated in this matchup as well.
If You’re Betting on the Eagles
Injuries are the story for the Eagles this week. First, they will be without offensive pillar Lane Johnson at right tackle. Johnson’s absence makes the Eagles offense less reliable. Next up is that Hurts has some chance to return to action this week. Considering the ramifications of this game for the Eagles, if Hurts can play, he’s probably going to play. If he can’t, Minshew showed that he’s perfectly capable of leading this offense during the Eagles 40-34 loss in Dallas last week. Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Eagles, you’re expecting them to meet their 25-point team total against a Saints defense that has given up 20 or fewer points in each of their last six games. If you’re betting on the Eagles, I’d suggest that you are primarily betting on their defense in a bounce back spot against a limited Saints offense. For Eagles bettors a 24-17 type of outcome is a winner. Your biggest concern as an Eagles bettor is a flat performance out of their offense. That type of outcome could be driven by Johnson’s absence with either Hurts playing through an injury or Minshew doing less than he did last week.
If You’re Betting on the Saints
An appealing aspect of a Saints bet is that they are one of the few teams in the league capable of mitigating the trench advantages the Eagles consistently enjoy on both sides of the ball. Saints’ bettors have to build their bet around their defense in this contest. New Orleans has given up 20 or fewer points in six straight games, but they’ve only scored 20 or more points twice during that span. It would be a surprise if the Saints’ offense suddenly exceeded expectations on the road in Philadelphia. It would be less of a surprise if the Eagles offense sputtered some after Minshew’s spike game against the Cowboys last week. Similarly, if Hurts starts this contest at quarterback, it would not be a major surprise if he missed a few throws that stalled a few drives while playing through an injury. You have a number of concerns as a Saints bettor, ranging from their limited offense to this being their second cold weather outdoor game in a row.
Awards Market Ramifications: Sirianni is a Coach of the Year contender. Hurts is a fading MVP contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Eagles across the board in winner pools, and I expect to be in line with consensus on this contest in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I lean towards the Eagles side here as I have limited confidence in the Saints offense against a defense like Philadelphia’s, but I have not yet bet on this game directly.
Survivor Pool: If you still have the Eagles in your survivor pool, they are a very solid option against the Saints.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33
WATCH MORE: Betting the NFL Week 17 Breakdown
