Analysis
12/15/22
8 min read
NFL Week 15 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Ravens vs. Browns
Baltimore Ravens (9-4) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)
Opening Spread: Browns -2.5.
Opening Game Total: 37.5.
Opening Team Totals: Browns (20), Ravens (17.5).
Weather: Outdoors, rain expected. Wind isn’t a problem now, but it should be monitored.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Browns -2.5.
- This line remains at Browns -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Browns -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Browns -2.5.
- This total opened at 37.5 points.
- This total remains at 37.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Browns: Questionable: WR Amari Cooper, WR David Bell, TE David Njoku, Edge Myles Garrett, Edge Jadeveon Clowney, CB Denzel Ward, S John Johnson III.
Ravens: Out: QB Lamar Jackson. Questionable: QB Tyler Huntley, RG Kevin Zeitler, RT Morgan Moses.
Browns Offense vs. Ravens Defense
The Browns have a top-five offensive line that drives their premium run game. The Ravens have a league-average defensive front. Therefore, the Browns have a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Browns are 6-7 against the spread this season.
- The Browns are 8-4-1 on overs this season.
- Deshaun Watson is 26-27-2 against the spread in his career.
- Deshaun Watson is 26-29 on overs in his career.
- Kevin Stefanski is 19-27 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kevin Stefanski is 24-21-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Browns Offense
- The Browns are scoring 23.1 points per game, good for 13th in the league.
- Cleveland is 21st in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing.
- The Browns are passing on 56% of their plays and running on 44% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- After a brutal return to NFL action in Houston, Deshaun Watson was better against the Bengals last week.
- Per the Edge, Nick Chubb is third in the league in yards rushing with 1,153, and he’s second in rushing touchdowns with 12.
- Amari Cooper has nine and seven targets in his two games with Deshaun Watson.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones had just three targets in his first game with Watson, but he had eight catches on 12 targets for 114 yards receiving last week against the Bengals.
- Over his two games with Deshaun Watson, David Njoku has 12 receptions on 16 targets for 88 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Njoku has breached 50 yards receiving in six of his ten games this season.
- Per TruMedia, Amari Cooper has played 605 snaps on the perimeter and 133 in the slot.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones has played 542 snaps on the perimeter and 236 in the slot.
- David Njoku has played 347 snaps as an inline tight end, 48 on the perimeter and 143 in the slot.
Ravens Defense
- The Ravens have allowed 19.2 points per game, which is eighth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Ravens have allowed the third-fewest yards rushing per game and the seventh-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Baltimore has given up the fourth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Baltimore has given up the sixth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Ravens have allowed the 24th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Ravens have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
Ravens Offense vs. Browns Defense
I have the Ravens tiered as a top-five offensive line. I have the Browns defensive front tiered as a slightly below-average unit. The Ravens have a moderate trench advantage if their offensive line enters this contest at full strength. That said, Browns premium Edge Myles Garrett has an individual matchup advantage against most opponents.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Ravens are 6-7 against the spread this season.
- The Ravens are 4-9 on overs this season.
- Tyler Huntley is 4-1 against the spread in his career.
- Tyler Huntley is 1-4 on overs in his career.
- John Harbaugh is 119-110-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- John Harbaugh is 114-123-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Ravens Offense
- The Ravens are scoring 23.2 points per game, which is 12th in the league.
- Baltimore is 28th in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing.
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the Ravens are passing on 57% of their plays and running on 43% of plays.
- The ceiling of the Ravens offense will be determined by which of Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown starts this game.
- From a skillset perspective, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better backup for Lamar Jackson than Tyler Huntley. While Huntley lacks Jackson's historic explosiveness, he is an above-average runner that has shown he can at least be a solid passer.
- Anthony Brown is another mobile quarterback, but he’s a less consistent passer than Huntley.
- Per the Edge, J.K. Dobbins returned to action last week, where he had 15 carries to Gus Edwards’ 13.
- The Ravens backfield deployments have been somewhat maddening this season, so we should expect that to continue as Kenyan Drake could mix in more this week.
- Demarcus Robinson has a 15.6% target share and a 19.1% air yards share.
- Devin Duvernay has a 12.8% target share and a 13.9% air yards share.
- DeSean Jackson has seen two-to-three targets in each of his four games as a Raven. Jackson has a 21.4% air yards share with a 19.9 ADOT.
- Mark Andrews leads all tight ends with his 27.4% target share and 34.4% air yards share.
Browns Defense
- The Browns have allowed 24.8 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Browns have allowed the seventh-most yards rushing per game and the 14th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Cleveland has given up the 17th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Cleveland has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Browns have allowed the 20th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Ravens vs. Browns
Once Deshaun Watson is completely back to being the dynamic talent he was two years ago, the Browns have a good enough roster to knock off anyone. Cleveland has a premium offensive line, one of the best running back duos in the league, a league-average group of wide receivers, a dynamic talent at tight end, one of the league’s best edge rushers, and several other above-average players on defense. Watson was better against the Bengals than he was against the Texans, but he still needs to be treated as a volatile option with very high upside.
If you’re betting on Cleveland, you’re primarily betting on their talented roster with the expectation that Watson continues to progress after his long absence. A bet on the Browns is also a direct bet against the Ravens offense, which has been very underwhelming in three of their last four games. Tyler Huntley has gotten through the concussion protocol, so he’ll likely be the Ravens' quarterback this week. If Anthony Brown is the Ravens' starting quarterback, that would be better news for Browns bettors. Your biggest concern as a Browns bettor is that Huntley headlines a solid offensive effort while Watson continues to struggle against the best defense he’s faced to this point.
A bet on the Ravens is primarily a bet on their defense. Baltimore has surrendered 14 or fewer points in three of their past four games. The Ravens held the Panthers to three points and the Broncos to nine during that stretch. Now, they’ll be getting Deshaun Watson in just his third game back after missing nearly two full seasons. If you’re betting on Baltimore, you are betting on Watson continuing to struggle against a Ravens defense that is playing its best football of the season right now. Lamar Jackson has been ruled out for this contest, but Tyler Huntley has gotten through the concussion protocol.
As a Ravens bettor, you need a clean game out of Huntley’s offense for the Ravens to keep this game close. That’s not an unrealistic expectation for Huntley. Your biggest concern as a Ravens bettor is that this is the game Deshaun Watson truly begins to look like he did two years ago. If Watson can return to his top-ten quarterback form, the Browns will be a title-contender type of opponent. That’s the worst-case scenario for Baltimore.
Ravens vs. Browns Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to get exposure to both of these teams in winner pools while being slightly Browns-heavy. I will rank this game as close to the bottom as I can in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I have some interest in the Browns ATS, but I’d be more enthusiastic about it if Anthony Brown is the Ravens' starting quarterback.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29
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