Betting

Larky’s AFC Conference Championship Betting Hedge

Conference Championship Betting

My AFC Conference Championship betting hedge is a creative way to capitalize on two of the NFL’s premier scoring offenses. Think of hedge in the financial sense, as we are placing two bets knowing they both can’t hit at once.

The Kansas City Chiefs scored 496 points (29.2 per game) during the regular season, the most in the NFL. The Cincinnati Bengals scored 418 points (26.1 per game), which was seventh highest this season.

I wanted to bet on two prolific offenses without actually having to bet on any individual players. My hedge accomplishes exactly that.

 

The Hedge

We need to take both of the below parlays for my AFC Conference Championship betting hedge. After laying out the two parlays, I dive into the math behind them in the next section to help you understand why this is a great bet to make.

Chiefs Moneyline (Win) + Bengals OVER 1.5 Touchdowns

Odds: +160 (38% implied probability) on DraftKings

  • The Bengals have scored two or more touchdowns in 17 of 18 games (94%) this season.

Bengals Moneyline (Win) + Chiefs OVER 1.5 Touchdowns

Odds: +175 (36% implied probability) on DraftKings

  • The Chiefs have scored two or more touchdowns in 18 of 18 games (100%) this season.

The Math Behind the Hedge

Because the spread for this game is currently one point at most sportsbooks, I’ll assume that each team has a 50% chance of winning on Sunday afternoon.

We are technically taking two parlay bets with odds of +160 (38% implied probability) and +175 (36% implied probability). However, it is impossible for both these bets to hit at once, so we can think of these two separate parlays as one overarching bet.

We are grinding the margins here, but we’re getting close to a 30% return on investment for money that’s sitting for one week’s time – a savvy financial strategy long-term.

I ran 100,000 simulations where the Chiefs win and the Bengals score two touchdowns. I assumed the Bengals score two touchdowns 94% of the time, just as they have this season. And anytime they hit two touchdowns, I had put in $20 ($10 on each bet), and was returned $26 (+160 odds). Anytime they didn’t score two touchdowns, I lost $20. Overall, the return on investment (ROI) is 22% long-term after 100,000 simulations in R.

I ran 100,000 simulations where the Bengals win and the Chiefs score two touchdowns. I assumed the Chiefs score two touchdowns 100% of the time, just like they have this season. For each simulation, I had put in $20 ($10 on each bet), and was returned $27.50 (+175 odds). Overall, the ROI is 37.5% long-term. And yes, we didn’t really need to simulate this part if we assumed the Chiefs always score two or more touchdowns.

If we assume each team has a 50% chance of winning, then we can average our returns (22% and 37.5%) to reach a 29.75% ROI.

Additional Notes

  • There is some uncertainty with Patrick Mahomes‘ recent high-ankle sprain. He is expected to play, but won’t be close to fully healthy. I’m not particularly concerned with the Chiefs offense reaching two touchdowns with a hobbled Mahomes, but if that’s of grave concern to you, nobody is forcing you to make this bet.
  • The Bengals likely will be down three starting offensive lineman once again. It did not affect them too much in their win over Buffalo, but if Chris Jones against a diminished blocking unit concerns you, nobody is forcing you to make this bet.
  • Always bet responsibly.

We hope you enjoyed reading this AFC Conference Championship betting hedge article.

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