Analysis
1/17/23
3 min read
Beat the Bump: Early Underdog Fantasy Player Props for Divisional Round
Quickly placing bets on player entries after the lines are posted has a lot of benefits. With so many people playing player pick’em lines, Underdog's lines are very reactive. When they see a lot of money and entries with a specific pick, they will move the line.
If you place player entries soon after they’re posted, you can get some fantastic values. Below I have identified a few player lines I think will move before the games this weekend and are worth locking in early.
Gabe Davis 47.5 Yards Receiving
I expect this line to get into the mid-50s by the weekend. Davis' 113-receiving-yard game from last week against the Dolphins will be fresh in people’s minds. There is also his 201-yard, four-touchdown performance from last year’s divisional round likely to influence people to go higher on this line.
The Bengals allow the seventh-most receptions of more than 25 yards per game and the third-most of more than 50 yards per game, so there is a chance Davis has a couple of deep receptions. This line is a value at 47.5, so you should lock in the higher play now.
Juju Smith-Schuster 56.5 Yards Receiving
I expect this line to drop to around 49.5. Smith-Schuster’s usage in Kansas City's offense has gone up and down throughout the season, but he's recently been a smaller part of the offense. In six of the past eight games, he has had four or fewer targets. In those six games, he averaged 31.0 yards receiving per game.
When Kansas City and the Jaguars met in the regular season, Smith-Schuster only had 33 yards receiving. I think people will place a lot of under entries after they see his recent yardage totals and his yardage total from the early season matchup with the Jaguars. Because of that, this line will be bumped down, so right now is a great time to lock this play in as an under.
Christian Kirk 61.5 Yards Receiving
I would not be surprised to see Kirk get close to 70 yards receiving by game time. He has played well recently and had 78 yards receiving last week against a good Chargers pass defense. The Chiefs' defense gives up the ninth most yards passing per game, and Kirk had more than 100 yards receiving against Kansas City earlier this season.
After a few down weeks to end the regular season, Kirk looks like he is back to being Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target again so lock this higher play in as a value right now.
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