Analysis
10/11/22
5 min read
NFL Week 6: Offensive Efficiency Rankings
Now that the first five weeks of the season are complete, we are starting to learn which offenses are threatening and which are still looking for take-off via EPA per play. EPA is a way to quantify points added on a play factoring in yards gained, field position, down, and distance. For example, a five-yard gain on 3rd and 3 results in a higher EPA than a five-yard gain on 3rd and 8, factoring in that a first down was achieved by the former.
Let’s take a look at the teams on the offensive efficiency leaderboard and see how they stack up going into Week 6.
1.) Buffalo Bills (EPA/Play = 0.11; Last Week: 3)
The Bills take over the top spot in this week’s rankings after outclassing the Steelers 38-3, scoring 31 points in the first half. Seeming to be rolling on all cylinders, the Bills only rank 13th in EPA/Play on early downs at 0.00. They are making their hay on late downs, leading the league with a whopping 0.54 EPA/Play, which is 0.35 points higher than the Chiefs in second place. Certainly, a 98-yard touchdown pass on 3rd and 10 on your own two-yard line will result in quite the boost. Historically, early down success is more predictive than late down success, so it may be worth treading lightly when crowning this Bills' offense.
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (EPA/Play = 0.10; Last Week: 1)
T-3.) Philadelphia Eagles (EPA/Play = 0.07; Last Week = 6)
T-3.) Seattle Seahawks (EPA/Play = 0.07; Last Week = 2)
5.) Cleveland Browns (EPA/Play = 0.06; Last Week = 7)
6.) Baltimore Ravens (EPA/Play = 0.02: Last Week = 8)
7.) Minnesota Vikings (EPA/Play = 0.01; Last Week = T-14)
T-8.) Los Angeles Chargers (EPA/Play = 0.00; Last Week = T-11)
T-8.) Arizona Cardinals (EPA/Play = 0.00; Last Week = T-11)
T-8.) Miami Dolphins (EPA/Play = 0.00; Last Week = 5)
11.) Las Vegas Raiders; (EPA/Play = -0.01; Last Week = 9)
T-12.) New York Giants (EPA/Play = -0.02; Last Week = 16)
The Giants have jumped to 12th from 16th after a comeback win against the Packers in London. The major contributing factor to their success has been their running game, as they are tied for second in yards per attempt at 5.4 and third in EPA per rushing attempt at 0.08. Saquon Barkley has returned from injury in a big way, ranking second in yards per game with 106.6. The Giants are also a top 10 team in the red zone, producing 0.03 EPA/Play. Â
T-12.) Detroit Lions (EPA/Play = -0.02; Last Week = 4)
14.) Green Bay Packers (EPA/Play = -0.03; Last Week = T-13)
T-15.) Atlanta Falcons (EPA/Play = -0.04; Last Week = 15)
T-15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (EPA/Play = -0.04; Last Week = T-9)
T-15.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (EPA/Play = -0.04; Last Week = T-17)
The Buccaneers got back in the win column after beating the Falcons 21-15 and have jumped four spots in this week’s rankings. What’s holding them back is that they rank 29th in EPA/Play in the red zone. Eventually getting back a full complement of weapons in Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and Cameron Brate should help improve this number that is historically highly variable.
18.) New England Patriots (EPA/Play = -0.05; Last Week = T-17)
19.) San Francisco 49ers (EPA/Play = -0.07; Last Week = T-25)
20.) Tennessee Titans (EPA/Play = -0.08; Last Week = T-17)
21.) New York Jets (EPA/Play = -0.09; Last Week = T-22)
T-22.) Dallas Cowboys (EPA/Play = -0.10; Last Week = 20)
T-22.) New Orleans Saints (EPA/Play = -0.10; Last Week = T-25)
24.) Cincinnati Bengals (EPA/Play = -0.11; Last Week = T-22)
25.) Washington Commanders (EPA/Play = -0.12; Last Week = T-25)
26.) Chicago Bears (EPA/Play = -0.13; Last Week = T-29)
T-27.) Denver Broncos (EPA/Play = -0.15; Last Week = 21)
The Broncos' offense has yet to find that spark after signing Russell Wilson and bringing in an offensive-minded head coach in Nathaniel Hackett. The Broncos have scored the second-fewest points thus far, a result of having the worst EPA/Play in the red zone by a large margin. Russell Wilson has also not lived up to his contract, as he ranks 31st out of 40 quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts in SIS’ Independent Quarterback Rating. With the other three AFC West teams in the top 11 in EPA/Play, the Broncos will have to right the ship fast if they want to keep up in the playoff race.
T-27.) Los Angeles Rams (EPA/Play = -0.15; Last Week = T-22)
The Rams might be the biggest offensive disappointment so far this season. Not only are they at the bottom in overall EPA/Play, but they are dead last in early down EPA/Play at -0.21. Offensive line injuries have not helped, and Matthew Stafford is paying the price. The Rams are allowing the sixth-highest pressure rate and are tied with the Colts for allowing the most sacks. Fixing the play of the offensive line will need to be the first of many steps needed to correct this Rams' offense.
T-27.) Houston Texans (EPA/Play = -0.15; Last Week = T-29)
T-27.) Pittsburgh Steelers (EPA/Play = -0.15; Last Week = T-25)
31.) Carolina Panthers (EPA/Play = -0.18; Last Week = 32)
32.) Indianapolis Colts (EPA/Play = -0.19; Last Week = 31)
James Weaver contributed to this report
