Elite Arm Talent, Quiet Mind Make C.J. Stroud Future Franchise QB
Analysis 2/27/23
Former NFL head coach and offensive guru Marc Trestman is evaluating the top quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft. This is the first in a series of his evaluations.
Others in Series:
With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror and the combine right around the corner, the focus in every NFL facility has shifted toward 2023. This offseason, several NFL teams will be looking for a new starting quarterback, and the place many will be looking at most closely is the 2023 NFL Draft.
Over the next several weeks, I’ll be breaking down some of the most accomplished passers of the 2023 class as well as some under-the-radar throwers who could come off the board in later rounds. I am extremely excited to begin here with Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud (scouting report).
>>READ MORE: 2023 NFL Draft Big Board | NFL Mock Draft 3.2
I want to clarify that this is not a complete evaluation. It’s a three-game study taken entirely from the tape of Stroud’s last three games against talented defenses.
Frankly, a three-game study is not enough, despite the fact that Stroud is highly accomplished and a player many predict to be a first-round choice. Vetting a future first-round and franchise quarterback is a highly intense and detailed effort. The first priority would be to watch all his 25 games as a starter. But that is just the beginning of this intense vetting process.
Scouts and personnel executives will dig deep into his personal background, personality and character by speaking to coaches, teammates and support staff surrounding Stroud for the last three years. They will also schedule in-person meetings to talk with him and gauge his football intelligence, ability to communicate and personality. This is a player who could be the face of a franchise for more than a decade. Stroud’s love of the game, work ethic, leadership qualities and ability to relate with coaches, players, people in the building and the community will be assessed in great detail. With the help of the different types of psychological testing the NFL now uses, all of this will be part of the evaluation.
C.J. Stroud Evaluation
2022 Games Watched
- Nov. 19 at Maryland: Won, 43-30
- Nov. 26 vs. Michigan: Lost, 45-23
- Dec. 31 vs. Georgia (Peach Bowl): Lost 42-41
Stroud's Credentials
Stroud compiled an excellent on-paper resume in three years at Ohio State and two seasons as the full-time starter. He led the Buckeyes to a 21-4 record, threw for 81 touchdowns against only 12 interceptions, was a team captain and was twice a Heisman Trophy finalist.
Even though Stroud was in shotgun on 86% of his dropbacks (per PFF), he played in an NFL offensive scheme, both under center and in the gun. In the three games that I watched, there were no RPOs and very few bubbles or quick screens. This well-coached offense asked him to make both horizontal and vertical throws throughout each game. The fact that Stroud threw up the field so frequently (10.7- and 10.0-yard average depth of target in his 2021 and 2022 seasons, respectively) makes his impressive completion percentage numbers (71.6% and 65.9% in the ’21 and ’22 seasons, respectively) even more impressive.
Accuracy
The most important attribute of any quarterback must be his accuracy. Stroud unquestionably checks this box. Whether in the pocket, under duress or on the move — if Stroud can complete a throwing — motion, he is incredibly accurate.
Accuracy is not just defined as getting the ball to the intended receiver but also locating the ball in a place where the intended receiver has his body between the ball and the defender, and the receiver can get maximum yards after the catch (YAC). Stroud shows accuracy on all types and depths of throws, including go routes, deep crosses, short crosses, comebacks and the quick game. This becomes a focal point when watching quarterback throws versus tight man-to-man coverage. This is where Stroud shines and was consistent over three games. What is also important is that these completions translate easily to NFL schemes.
NFL Arm Talent
Not only is Stroud highly accurate, but he also has a complete inventory of passes, an inherent ability to quiet the ball and change speeds, protect his receivers, and give them a catchable ball.
As much as I would be excited to see Stroud in person. The high-end NFL arm talent is clearly visible on tape.
Quiet Mind
When you watch Stroud on tape, his functional intelligence and spatial awareness jump off the screen. He can naturally slow the chaos of the game down, quickly process information, manage the pocket and find an answer with various combinations of his arm and legs.
With time in the pocket, Stroud shows his ability to quickly process from one side of the field to another, bring his eyes and flip his hips while showing a great understanding of where his receivers and flare control are located before consistently finishing with an accurate throw.
Pre-Snap Mental Processing
When I turned on the tape and watched every throw Stroud made against Georgia, Michigan, and Maryland this season, one of the first things that stood out to me was how calmly and poised he was while directing traffic at the LOS pre-snap. Like most NFL offenses, the Ohio State offense often deploys pre-snap shifts and/or motions, with the quarterback pointing out the MIKE linebacker for protection purposes.
The protection understanding must be confirmed during interviews, but Stroud's is encouraging based on what we can see from the tape. These attributes, and so much more about Stroud, are incredibly impressive for a 21-year-old. Clearly, he’s been coached up well.
Pocket Management
Stroud is extremely comfortable throwing from the pocket. Although he plays mostly in the gun like most NFL teams now do, he also looks very comfortable under center. He checks all the boxes for attributes necessary to throw from the pocket. At 6-foot-3-inches and 218 pounds, he has the physical size and the arm talent necessary to succeed, as we've already described. At 21 years of age, he will only get stronger through anticipated hard work in the weight room.
- He is tough and courageous to stand in the face of a free rusher, deliver and take a hit.
- He stages the ball well with the tip of the football tight at the "V" of the neck. While he does not often vary his arm angles, Stroud shows a swift, fluid, over-the-top throwing motion. Once the ball leaves his hand, it becomes apparent that he has arm talent beyond his coaching. The ball explodes off Stroud’s right hand as he shows good arm strength and optimal velocity on passes up the field. He also shows the intuitive ability to vary his ball speeds, putting touch on his passes when he needs to and throwing a catchable ball to all areas of the field.
- He is conscious of his ball security. But like most NFL quarterbacks, when facing pressure and starting to move, he takes his left hand off the ball and his right hand drops, leaving the tip of the ball below the waist, exposing it to blindside pursuit. This is not unusual and will be part of drills at every practice.
- Stroud is excellent at feeling immediate pressure, making a pursuing defender miss and finding a quiet area to throw the ball. He is also excellent at doing the same when outside the pocket.
- Stroud is much further along with his lower body mechanics than most college quarterbacks and even some NFL starters. He has nimble feet and quick twitch ankles that can move suddenly to get his body into a throwing position. He never seems rushed, hurried or stressed when under duress. You see quiet footwork, a great base and good hip rotation on his passes. His power starts with his feet and base, and his footwork is consistently in rhythm with the depths of the routes, allowing him to complete timing throws to various areas of the field.
While viewing the tape, there are numerous breathtaking plays with ideal touch and accuracy on short crosses, deep crosses and over-shoulder placement on deep passes. I also watched all six of his interceptions from this past year, of which only three I attributed to him. Of all his throws, less than a handful of plays lacked the kind of discretion in his decision-making you want from a star QB.
Outside the Pocket
Stroud is not an explosive runner but can move sufficiently enough to avoid pursuing defenders. He is a dropback passer who will do what he can to read through his progressions. The last thing he will try to do is run.
When pressured and there is a place to go, Stroud will often make the first rusher miss, slide, or exit the pocket with his eyes always upfield, ready to deliver. This is where another high-end attribute shows up. Once he sees a reception area, the ball is up and out quickly and completed with high-end accuracy and an over-the-top throwing motion. He can throw on the move to either side, and I saw him throw accurately across his body to get a completion as well. He has the athletic and intangible ability to extend the play outside the pocket, set his feet to throw, or throw it with his feet off the ground and make the big-time plays.
These moments outside the pocket are where his it-factor shows up.
Watching the tape of Stroud leaves anyone who loves the game and quarterback position longing to watch more. The tape invites you to make the deepest of dives to confirm Stroud’s status as what appears to be a future franchise quarterback.
He seems to make it so easy and sometimes leaves you wondering whether he would even need to shower after the game.
I wish Stroud nothing but the best as this process continues, and expect to see him making big-time throws on Sundays in the coming NFL seasons.
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